Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Hulu's General Launch - A VOD Source


As Hulu.com approaches its general audience launch tomorrow, the web industry pundits are offering up considerable criticism.

My suggestion? Let's all keep in mind that this is the TV industry, with emphasis on "industry". While it has been interesting to sit at a computer and watch something on Hulu.com beta, that's missng the point. Hulu is a TV video-on-demand source that can be run on your TV by simply connecting a computer appropriately. And it's a pioneer from that perspective.

The technology needed to consistently deliver quality streaming video is still experimental. Hulu is experimenting with HD. Bandwidth availability nationwide is weak compared to what would be needed for HD streaming. Do you wonder what HD web site might not suffer from bandwidth problems for Comcast ISP customers? Hulu's distribution partnership through Comcast’s Fancast, plus AOL, MSN, Yahoo, and MySpace, as well as its own web site, is clever.

For a TV VOD site, it's a strong beginning to create a "one-stop-shop". Other sites exist for the amateur or budding professional to display their wares. And the TV networks need to continue attracting viewers to their sites to promote new programming.

Let's all avoid the temptation to compare this experiment with YouTube or cable video-on-demand. It will mature in its own way.

In the meantime, take a look at the content on Hulu.com either directly or through its partners. Perhaps an episode of "House"?

Monday, March 10, 2008

Lipstick, Cashmere, and Rust

Last week "Lipstick Jungle" finished third in total viewers against a rerun of "Without a Trace" at #1 and "Eli Stone" at #2; and essentially tied for second in that 18-49 demographic. The last episode of "Cashmere Mafia" also finished third behind a new "Law & Order" and a rerun of "CSI: NY". It appears that generally the viewers are rejecting these shows.

"Big Shots" has already been canceled by ABC and its "Cashmere Mafia" is still in limbo even though the network has picked up a number of shows. Who knows what NBC will do with "Lipstick Jungle"?

I divide TV drama series into two categories - plot driven and character driven. Plot driven shows have a basic plot and attempt to build characters around it - like the L&O and CSI franchises. Character driven shows begin with characters to be developed. This can't be done without effective use of backstory which can't be done in three episodes unless there is only one primary character. Without backstory, you can't use common plot lines like struggling singles, marriage in trouble, mean competitors, etc., because they seem so trite and make the characters seem shallow. "Cashmere Mafia" and "Lipstick Jungle" have fallen into that trap.

In contrast, "October Road" begins using a strong backstory. (But writer Scott Rosenberg's story does have a true backstory (read here).) The show is slowly developing characters with depth. If it lasts more than two years going in the same direction, it would make a DVD box set drama lovers would like to own. Last week it finished a poor third behind a rerun of "CSI: Miami" and a new "Medium". Tonight is the second season finale. I fear it is the last season.

We own all the seasons of "Northern Exposure" on DVD and love watching them a second time around (despite the fact that Universal failed to obtain the DVD use rights to much of the music used in the show). The salient fact about "Northern Exposure" is that it didn't make it into the top 20 prime time shows until season 3. Character driven shows with multiple characters rarely do. Well-crafted ones used to be given a chance by the networks and viewers.

As a side note, plot driven shows don't automatically do as well as "24" and the two crime fighter franchises mentioned above. "Kidnapped" which NBC dropped after 3 episodes was a strong show. It could have gone on for years had it been scheduled and promoted cleverly.

It is disturbing to see the strong cast members of "Cashmere Mafia", "Lipstick Jungle" and "Big Shots" wasted. It's ironic that of the "rich-and/or-power-players" dramas currently showing, while there is no "gold standard" the CW's "Gossip Girl" might make "shiny copper" while the others barely make "rust".

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

The New 40 channel

It appears that The CW is struggling. Let's see - ages 18-34 aren't watching tv as much as they used to. So let's set up a channel for them. Great economic model. Not.

How about an AARP age group broadcast channel named "The New 40"? The national feeds could begin with a simulcast of the CBS evening news and end with a simulcast of David Letterman. And in between, feed shows that appeal to that age group acquired jointly with cable channels. Lower upfront primetime programming costs. Focused advertising.

Example shows to consider as models: Everwood (yes originally a WB show with terrific cross generational interaction), Mad Men (within memory period piece), As Time Goes By (really funny if you are over 40), Six Feet Under (even the old folks had sex before they died), 100 Centre Street (anything with Alan Arkin), Side Order of Life (only keep Joe Regalbuto and Susan Blakely in more episodes), Golden Girls, The Closer, Saving Grace, Monk, Huff, and Dancing with the Stars (if we have to have a reality show) to name a few.

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Terminal City - A place to go for award winning drama

Sundance Channel will premiere "Terminal City," an award-winning Canadian miniseries about a cancer-stricken housewife who becomes a reality TV star, beginning March 6, 2008.

"Terminal City" mixes drama and dark comedy as it tells this story of a family facing not one but two major upheavals: cancer and overnight fame. Maria del Mar stars as Katie Sampson, a loving wife and mother of three with a zest for life, a sardonic sense of humor and a flair for the grand gesture. When a mammogram confirms a lump in her breast, Katie heads to the hospital for a biopsy -- and walks straight into a live broadcast of "Post Op!," a flailing reality TV show.

Katie's star quality is immediately apparent to producer Jane Richards (Jane McLean), and within days, the telegenic housewife is hosting her own daytime program on the Acetylene Network. While Katie conquers the airwaves, her devoted husband Ari (Gil Bellows of Ally McBeal fame) tries to maintain some sense of day-to-day normalcy amongst the family, which includes two bickering teenagers, 16-year-old Sarah (Katie Boland) and 15-year old Nicky (Adam Butcher), as well as precocious 7-year-old Eli (Nico McEown) and Ari's volatile father Saul (Paul Soles). In the weeks and months to come, Katie's celebrity and illness will accelerate in tandem, and the members of the Sampson family find their own ways to cope with a terribly uncertain future.

"Terminal City" premiered on Canadian television in October 2005, receiving critical acclaim and numerous honors during the 2006 Canadian awards season. In an article for Toronto's Globe and Mail, Gayle MacDonald wrote, "Landing in the same groundbreaking genre that includes HBO's 'Six Feet Under' and 'The Sopranos,' 'Terminal City' embraces taboo topics in a respectful, honest manner, and ends up leaving viewers eminently entertained."

Series star Maria del Mar was recently honored as the best actress of 2006 by ACTRA, the Canadian equivalent of SAG. "Terminal City" won eight awards in the Dramatic Series section of British Columbia's Leo Awards, including Best Series, Direction (Rachel Talalay) and Screenwriting (Fraser). Also receiving honors were co-star Paul Soles, who received a Gemini Award for Outstanding Performance by an Actor in a Featured Supporting Role in a Dramatic Series, and director Kari Skogland, who won the Director's Guild of Canada Craft Award for Outstanding Direction of a Television Series.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Bill Maher, Barack Obama, and the 60's

Tom Brokaw was a guest on Bill Maher Friday evening. Brokaw, because of his book Boom!: Voices of the Sixties has become an "expert" on the subject of the 60's. I haven't read the book, but was a bit disappointed with his discussion with Maher about the idealism of the '60's and its ultimate failure to materialize as social change in the ensuing decades.

I was one of those political idealists who knows what happened. "They" killed Jack Kennedy in 1963. "They" killed Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy in 1968, then beat the crap out of those of us who turned out at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. Then "they" finished off any idealistic illusions remaining on Monday, May 4, 1970, by putting armed troops on a college campus - Kent State - and shooting "us."

Yes, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was approved and the Viet Nam War ended in 1975. But neither process included much idealism. Hilary Clinton is correct - without Lyndon Johnson's congressional leadership experience and willingness to roll over the Southern Democrats by getting the support of Republicans, there would have been no Civil Rights Act of 1964. And without Walter Kronkite editorializing about the Vietnam War in 1968, "they" likely would never have pulled out of Vietnam seven years later, because the doubt the Kronkite sowed in the minds of "their" middle American political base would never have existed.

"They" easily recruited the South and the Middle American "America - Love It or Leave It" working class into "their" camp and regained "their" equilibrium by 1980 and elected Ronald Reagan.

By 2000, "they" could have the Supreme Court appoint a President and create a war designed to make "them" rich.

It may seem simplistic to some because the terms "they" and "us" are vague. But it is the gist of what happened to the 1960's idealism.

I certainly hope that none of the things that happened to the 1960's idealists happen to the Obama idealists.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Cult Following TV cable net for Friday Night Lights, Moonlight, and Jericho?

Various news sources indicate that some NBCU folks are trying to save the award winning show Friday Night Lights (FNL) by finding another network to share the cost. The reason someone is trying to save the show is that it is good, very good. Also it has a cult following.

The reason they have to save it is that it hasn't attracted an audience. The average rating is 6.1 million viewers. For comparison, the CBS show Numb3ers which also runs on Friday evenings typically pulls over 10 million viewers. Its struggling and yet to be renewed new series on Friday, Moonlight, and also has a "cult following", gets about 7.5 million viewers. (Fox's award winning House typically has 13 million viewers and it's episode shown after Super Bowl XLII had 29 million viewers. It is also, good, very good.) The strangest fact about FNL is that it also has done poorly in the 18-49 demographic.

While viewers frequently get upset with a network for not standing behind a show, NBC is trying to find a way to afford this show. It typically costs $3 million an episode to get a show like this ready to hand to NBC. Then NBC and its affiliates not only have to figure out how to pay that bill, but recover all their operating costs and make a profit.

So some NBC folks are trying to persuade The CW or TNT to help with the show to recover the $60+ million a normal season would cost (before network and affiliate costs).

One could ask: Why does it cost so much to produce a TV series? But assuming there is no way to save significant sums, maybe the networks ought to jointly create a subscription cable channel called Cult Following TV. People are willing to pay $10 per month for HBO or Showtime. Then NBC could dump off FNL and CBS could dump off Moonlight and Jericho.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Beaten Like a Yellow Dog

Apparently the science fiction writer Harlan Ellison wrote a "blunt" response to the proposed WGA contract. In his response, he begins: "THEY BEAT US LIKE A YELLOW DOG."

"My Guild did what it did in 1988," he continued. "It trembled and sold us out. It gave away the EXACT co-terminus expiration date with SAG for some bullshit short-line substitute; it got us no more control of our words; it sneak-abandoned the animator and reality beanfield hands before anyone even forced it on them; it made nice so no one would think we were meanies; it let the Alliance play us like the village idiot. The WGA folded like a Texaco Road Map from back in the day."

His colorful words, of course, have received mixed reviews. Sadly, though, his words reflect the truth. All the guilds appear to have been beaten by a simple tactic employers traditionally used in a labor dispute - the lockout.

As I warned in December, the AMPTP never had any intention of settling early with the WGA and did not bargain in good faith. They slowly "locked out" SAG and DGA members before their contract was up, in an effort to weaken their resolve before talks start. In the process, they also locked out everyone associated with production.

Lockouts frequently failed in the history of labor disputes. But industrial corporations hadn't yet talked the entire working class into mortgaging their souls for trinkets.

It would be interesting to know how much money workers in the industry, in whatever capacity, knowingly or unknowingly, owe to a subsidiary of GE, which owns NBCU. And even more interesting, how many felt the pressure of their debt owed to arms of the conglomerates?

Union members used to tithe to strike funds in order to help cover what people needed - food, clothing and shelter. It would be impossible to create a fund to cover the debt payments of most workers.

The "need" to own a $4,000 1080p 52" high definition Sony Bravia LCD TV would outweigh the wisdom to strike until one makes enough money to pay for it (because one can get up to 12 months of no interest or payment sthrough a Sony Financial Services credit card). Once one has it and a new BluRay player, DVD's direct from the Sony online store can be enjoyed such as the "Bourne Ultimatum" or the "Exclusive Seinfeld Series DVD Gift Box", a Sony Style exclusive. And tomorrow they can go to work for a Sony Pictures production. Does anyone remember the concept of a "company town." This is the new "company town", except Sony Pictures has no need to own the land under your house.

So the workers now quarrel openly among themselves, in the process making the employer's only real weapon - the lockout - an extremely effective tool in the ongoing process of accumulating riches.

Ellison is right, but is talking to people on their way to work whose new iPhones are blasting conglomerate-owned music too loudly to hear him. The old song hasn't been revised to say "16-frames and what do you get, another day older and deeper in debt." But it should be.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Boston Legal Not Cancelled - Denny Crane

Apparently Denny is not going to succumb to mad cow.

From WilliamShatner.com:

We are not cancelled.
My Best, Bill

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Will Mad Cow Get Denny Crane?


It appears Boston Legal is in limbo, at best, for being picked up for a new season.

The thing about Boston Legal is you have to love the Denny Crane and Alan Shore (William Shatner and James Spader) characters' relationship (strong male bonding or right-wing gay? tension) and enjoy the weirdness of other regular characters, plus not be offended by the strongly liberal political views expressed by the show's storylines. It is really a comedy with each story having a moral (as in the moral of the story), and in that genre very much a successor to M*A*S*H.

You also have to not be undone by all the old people. I mean the regulars William Shatner, Candice Bergen, Rene Auberjonois, and John Larroquette are all over 60 (my age group). And then there are regular disturbing but amusing judges (disturbing because our judiciary is aging and these characters represents the downside) Clark Brown (the 72 year old Henry Gibson) and Robert Sanders (the 82 year old Shelley Berman). Not to mention the storylines around Betty White.

It's not for everyone. Being an old hippie, I truly enjoy the show. But one of my best friends has been in law enforcement for 40 years, has never voted for a Democrat, and would truly despise the show.

It was #2 in total viewers in its timeslot behind a rerun of Law & Order: SVU. It is not surprising that its total viewers number was barely higher than the #3 Jericho season premier, a show with a limited but dedicated following that CBS cancelled last year but brought back because of the rather tenacious campaign by those viewers. The economic problem is that Boston Legal was #3 in that all important "adults 18-49" and likely would have been #4 if Fox and the CW didn't stop their prime times at 10 pm.

And so, Denny Crane may succumb to economics mad cow. Alot of us will mourn.

Monday, February 4, 2008

Canadian Shows Picked Up by US Networks

If you go to the websites of the CBC, CTV, and Global TV, you see that Canadians are watching some Canadian-made programming as well as Prison Break, the CSI's, the Law & Orders, Jericho, Greys Anatomy, etc.

It appears now we Americans may to get to see some of that Canadian creativity. NBC has reportedly picked up The Listener, CBS Flashpoint, and ABCFamily Sophie. Supposedly CBS and ABC are considering taking a run at The Border.

For those of us who occasionally fall for BBCA shows, this might be a breath of new perspective. And while it could perhaps be "blamed" on the writers strike, NBC programming chief Ben Silverman has said previously he was going to look to foreign sources as part of the overhead cost reduction.

In any event, you can take a look at these shows on the web.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Jeff Zucker Reaffirms His Mantra - Change the Business Model

The National Association of Television Program Executives convention is being held this week in Las Vegas. The keynote address speaker was Jeff Zucker, head of NBC-Universal reinterated the mantra that was clear last November - TV must change or become extinct. I won't restate everything I've pointed out repeatedly in this blog. You can read the more traditional reports:
And then there is the more direct: Zucker Tackles the Broadcast Delusion .

What do you need to know about what he said, most of which we have discussed in this blog previously? Consider:
  • Zucker described the Writers Guild of America strike a catalyst for change, likening the work stoppage to a destructive forest fire that precipitates robust growth.
  • "Broadcasters can no longer spend hundreds of millions of dollars every year on pilots that don't see the light of day or on upfront presentations or on deals that don't pay off," Zucker said. "And we can't ignore international opportunities, VOD (video-on-demand) or the Web."
  • Concerning local TV, NBC has made recent moves, with new local digital and out-of-home initiatives, to bulk up its local TV business --so much so that it has eliminated a division with TV in the title. "At NBC Universal, we don't even have an NBC television stations business anymore--even though we own NBC stations. Our group is now called NBC Local Media. Broadcast TV is only a part of what local media is about."
  • Overall, Zucker says the networks collectively spend $500 million on pilots in a given year--sometimes as much as $10 million on each individual pilot. He said there was little evidence these pilots result in a better success rate than by having a show go straight to series.
  • But Zucker said NBC wasn't abandoning scripted shows for reality, since scripted programming is of major value as marketers pay higher CPMs on average.
While generally those comments are a continuation of what has been discussed here, two other subjects were addressed. First federal regulations and the FCC:

Calling for a total revamping of federal rules, Zucker believes the Federal Communications Commission needs to change outdated regulations, especially where cable networks have one set of rules and broadcast networks another. "Something that airs on channel 3 in New York on cable has very different rules than what airs on channel 2 and channel 4. It doesn't make any sense. The rules they chose to enforce because of the political whims of the day seem very outdated."

“Audiences have many sources for news, weather and entertainment, most of which do not require a broadcast license and most of which do not have strong local components,” he said. “If Washington did take on a comprehensive examination of what regulatory policies make sense for today, many of the regulatory initiatives that have been in the spotlight over the last few years would be seen in a new and different light.”

Then, lest we forget where he is coming from, he mentioned the source of the business model NBCU uses:

Zucker also addressed the perennial question about whether General Electric was thinking about selling NBC. "As things have improved with NBC Universal and NBC prime time, those questions have subsided. It's all about performance. If we perform, the question goes away. If we don't perform, they should sell us."

While GE is only one conglomerate involved in deciding the future of tv, it's coming out first and strong for a business model GE embraces. It is already pushing for changes in federal regulation. Keep in mind, you are not hearing a call for deregulation. Rather, it is a call for regulations to support their new business model. Whether that is in the best interest of the American public is a matter of opinion.

What's your favorite presidential candidate's position on this? Bet you don't know any details. But whoever is President from 2009 through 2012 will have a significanat impact on this.

Monday, January 28, 2008

NBCU continues its march into new media - this time for locals

TV Week reported today that the local stations division of NBCU just purchased LX.tv in a deal that calls for the new-media shop to produce original entertainment content for all NBC-owned stations. LX.tv produces two shows for NBC-owned WNBC-TV in New York, “Open House NYC” and “LX.tv 1st Look New York,” which run both online and on-air.

This continues the movement by NBCU to expand it tv media universe into the combination of online and on-air. See previous posts Why Broadcast TV Can’t Use Scripted Programming, NBC Direct still in beta cuts ad deal, and Writers Win-Win as NBC Business Strategy Becomes Clearer.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

It's Only TV....


On a internet board dedicated to satellite TV, someone who was upset with media conglomerate power over federal regulations posted some complaints. Another board member responded: "It's only TV...." That pushed my satellite-tv-user rant button as follows:

In 1878 home entertainment did not include radio, tv, movies, recorded music, or the internet. People had the options of getting together to talk, sing and play musical instruments, play games, quilt, etc. Solitary activities could include some of the aforementioned, plus reading. They got their news from newspapers and magazines. To see performers of any kind, they had to leave their homes, but for most people the renowned performers of the day generally were out of reach without a significant amount of money and time devoted to travel.

Fifty years later, 1928, things had begun to change. Within the home people could hear professional performers on phonograph records and radios. They could get almost instant news on the radio and a much greater percentage could see some renowned performers of the day at a movie theater.

Twenty years later, 1948, home entertainment had shifted. In most homes, records and radio had begun to dominate entertainment activities. The local movie theater had become an important communal center for experiencing professional performances on a shared basis.

By 1958, just ten years later, television had changed all of that. Two year later Jack Kennedy and Richard Nixon solidified the political implications of mass media first used effectively by Roosevelt and Hitler. And George W.'s people used it well, if corruptly, against John McCain in South Carolina in 2000.

It really took 40 years, 1998, for the internet to begin to be an additional home entertainment and mass communication option. It hasn't replaced TV, however, as the significant medium. And two or more Americas exist relative to these home entertainment and mass media delivery systems.

My kids and their kids live in urban areas. They have ready access to all the out-of-home alternatives - concerts, theater, theme parks, etc. They also have access to all the tv options: off-the-air, cable, satellite, and the new phone companies. And they have access to the highest speed internet options.

For many Americans who - by fate or choice - live in rural areas, satellite tv is the only access to the home entertainment choices available to their urban cousins. Yet it is the barely tolerated step-child of the media industry, a concession to both the appearance of fairness in free enterprise and the need to access the rural market. The same discrepancy exists relative to high speed internet. These times are most certainly not like the 1930's when the federal government deliberately facilitated through regulation and funding universal access to electricity and telephone service, as it did for highways in the 1950's.

When I got my first Echostar C-band dish in 1988, I really enjoyed access to regional news feeds from other parts of the country and Canadian television - it opened up new windows on the world. On October 17, 1989, at 5:04 pm PDT, a major earthquake known as the Loma Prieta Earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay Area and the Monterey Bay Area. We were living well north of the impacted area but had three adult children in the San Francisco area and a parent in Monterey County. The SFO stations went off the air and the phone system did its usual crash leaving us with no information. But with my C-band satellite we could scan and get live satellite feeds from nearby Sacramento stations, as well as national networks because they were broadcasting the World Series from Candlestick Park. At the time, I thought: "Wow, this is the way to go. What a public benefit an open satellite system could become in times of crises." Plus the possibility of improving understanding between people from different locations seemed endless though we'd have to pay for it.

Not long after that, access to local feeds begin to disappear off C-band. Canadian tv was blocked by American networks by legal means without any consideration of the moral issue of limiting access to information. I finally switched to the small dish when the C-band box failed. Through that, in the 9-11 situation, I could get at least local takes from NY stations without having the drama queens and kings of network tv filter the news.

But that came to a screeching halt in order to protect the economic interests of "fictitious people" known a corporations that now thought they "owned" the airwaves the government had licensed to them on behalf of me, originally with strict public service requirements which had been eliminated.

Most satellite users now can get the Fishing and Playboy Channels if they want. But most of us have no access to federally licensed local programming in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida. No one seems to care that we are prohibited by federal law from being allowed to see what the locals in these important presidential primary states are seeing on their tv. It isn't that it couldn't be delivered, as local channels from those states are being delivered to satel- lite tv users in those states, it is that I am prohibited from seeing those signals by the government.

Yes, it is only television to some. But not to me. It is my principal home entertainment, with access not only to tv shows but movies and concerts. It is still a principal source of crises news. Not regular news, though. The style of reporting daily news is, with government approval, controlled by the preferences of an Australian whose only real concern is that media make him richer and his opinions more powerful.

So for daily news I have to depend on the internet now. And I'm using it more for entertainment. But the government has already allowed the same conglomerates to gain control of that delivery system. And while they haven't quite yet figured out what to do with it, they are rapidly learning to squeeze it for money and control it for power....

The one and only advantage of those dependant on satellite tv service should be access to distant networks. "They" took it away. Imagine if the Viacoms of the world could triple cable profits and double their related networks advertising profits by offering network programming from all four time zones in all four time zones while not fatally impacting the local stations. We would all be getting "distants" because federal regulations would be changed not on behalf of the public, but on behalf of corporate interests.

Yeah, it's only TV.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Writers Win, Directors and Others Lose in NBC Future


The New York Times reported today that Jeff Zucker, CEO of NBC-Universal, indicated that NBC would not be buying numerous pilots in the future as it traditionally has. Instead they will order a couple each year, but would shift more toward a system of straight-to-series orders buying "first episode" scripts.

At the same time, the network will stick by its current script commitments.

This announcement is a win-win for writers, but for producers, directors, actors, and the technical and support staff, the model change is a disaster. They make millions each year shooting pilots that never become series.

The announcement is also consistent with what is becoming an NBCU future business plan for scripted TV, a plan that includes Hulu.com and NBC Direct.

Zucker noted in November that NBC.com had 50 million video streams in October, 50% higher than the previous record, in May. "It's become a small cable channel in our universe," he said. Of the Hulu venture he said it was a "superstore" while NBC.com was a "specialty shop." He indicated that the digital issue is the biggest nightmare in his job. "Nobody has figured out the economic model yet. And if we don't figure it out soon, those dollars will turn to pennies."

He emphasized: "We don't want to replace the dollars we were making in the analog world with pennies on the digital side."

As this blog described in November, major changes in the method of scripted tv delivery are looming.

NBC Direct still in beta cuts ad deal

It's hard to keep up with the dizzying pace NBC is moving to the web, NBC's beta subscription full episode download delivery service NBC Direct has signed an advertising delivery technical deal with YuMe.

The Major Housecleaning at the Conglomerates

If you haven't been closely following the news related to the writers strike, you probably aren't aware of the networks cleaning house - scrubbing commitments to scripted programming.

Beginning with ABC Studios on January 11, the five major TV studios terminated about 70 deals under the force majeure provisions in its producers' contracts. These cases include "producer" contracts, some of which were opportunistic in that there were already disputes between the producer and the studio. See the Hollywood Reporter's "ABC Studios terminates nearly overall deals" and "Black Monday at TV studios" .

In the past few days, the studios started terminating scripted projects beginning last Friday with CBS releasing 20 projects. Tuesday it was reported that Fox dropped over 20 scripts and the CW about a dozen, with ABC said to be close to making a similar move.

All these announcements come with statements indicating that the strike caused these terminations, except Fox gave what I consider to be a more honest statement: "In the current environment, we've been forced to take a hard look at our needs for the upcoming season, and as a result we're going to target a more focused range of projects."

As I have noted before, in my opinion the AMPTP never had any intention of settling with the writers and was not bargaining in good faith because of the changes in the distribution environment surrounding scripted programming. I expected broadcast tv to degenerate into mostly news, sports, and reality/game show programming, but I frankly didn't expect it to happen so rapidly. It appears the conglomerates were more prepared to adapt to change than I anticipated and they are using the strike as an excuse to rid themselves of commitments inconsistent with the current economic reality.

Instead of the slow, painful transition from radio to TV that occurred between 1948 and 1958, it appears the conglomerates are cutting out the vestigial organs of scripted TV body in a headlong attempt to adapt. If you like scripted programming, you should start preparing to access Hulu.com, the Fox/NBCU joint venture to stream programming on the web.

To repeat what I noted in November in Why Broadcast TV Can’t Use Scripted Programming, Jeff Zucker, CEO of NBC-Universal, said: "We don't want to replace the dollars we were making in the analog world with pennies on the digital side."

Zucker noted that NBC.com had 50 million video streams in October, 50% higher than the previous record, in May. "It's become a small cable channel in our universe," he said. Of the Hulu venture he said it was a "superstore" while NBC.com was a "specialty shop." He indicated that the digital issue is the biggest nightmare in his job. "Nobody has figured out the economic model yet. And if we don't figure it out soon, those dollars will turn to pennies."

Regarding the writers strike he said: "It will be a real watershed event, [and we'll see] whether [viewers will] come back to scripted programming," he said. "An event like this will happen at everyone's peril."

NBC has been mum so far on its plans to weed out its commitments.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Time-Warner is so predictable

Bragging is not good manners. But I'm going to be rude.

Last Thursday in my post Web tv programming - multiple revenue streams for conglomerates I commented on Time-Warner Cable trying out "metered" internet service in Texas and how this would add to the conglomerate revenue stream from web tv produced by the same conglomerate - different divisions.

Now comes the news that HBO, a Time-Warner operation, will be trying out a new service in Wisconsin - the ability to download content from HBO.

We have no indication when both these trials will end, but my guess is that they will roll-out nationwide within a very few months of each other.

Broadcasters Cancel Script Commitments

“…Most completely-scripted programming is likely to become severely devalued to advertisers and the networks under these circumstances.”

That was the one key point from my post “Why Broadcast TV Can’t Use Scripted Programming” written in early November.

Now many, many scripted projects are being cancelled with the Hollywood Reporter announcing this morning the most recent with “In the latest fallout from the writers strike, CBS has trimmed its development slate, letting go of about 20 projects, most of them dramas.”

…CBS said. “This year’s pilot season, at best, will be played out in a very compressed time frame. In this landscape, we are better served creatively, financially and strategically by focusing our development on a more targeted number of projects.”

CBS is only the most recent to announce this. You don’t have to be a genius to figure out that the shows that will do best in the C3 are sports, reality, and game shows. It was inevitable though accelerated by the writers strike.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Web tv programming - multiple revenue streams for conglomerates


As conglomerates prepare new television programming for the web, like Trenches, Broadband Reports.com ran a news story yesterday that indicates just how those conglomerates are going to generate revenue. See Time Warner Cable Eyeing Overage Charges?

The story indicates that Time Warner Cable is going to test the implementation of overage charges for its RoadRunner cable broadband service. Ultimately this could lead to ISP's charging for heavy usage. Of course, to watch web distributed tv programming you will buy a higher usage tier service.

So Time-Warner subsidiaries could actually shift programming to the web, place unskippable ads in it or charge you for viewing or both, and then through their cable subsidiary charge you again for viewing the programming.

Now, if they could just find a way to keep from paying the creators of the content for their creativity....

Friday, January 11, 2008

Internet TV Moves Closer to You at CES2008

In November, I posted the following within my initial series on just how radical the change in home entertainment will be:

    "While the home entertainment industry struggles to cope with changes over he next 5-to-10 years, viewers who want to watch scripted tv will need to adapt."
With CES 2008 comes the announcement that new TV's are going to have plugs to connect to your home network and the internet, that Echostar - the satellite tv folks - have released an off-the-air DVR with both digital and analog tuners and a network plug so you'll be able to "access premium Internet-based TV programming via broadband Internet" as well as record your digital HD off-the-air shows.

One of the most interesting out of CES is xStreamHD, a satellite based 1080p set-top box system. What we have here is:
  • A box with three "Off-Air HD tuners" and recording capability.
  • Plus a service providing extremely rapid downloading of DVD content in HD - possibly including TV show box sets.
In other words, besides movies you could watch all the last season's shows you might be interested in without commercials, plus OTA HD tv. Most everything I watch on cable and OTA channels comes out on DVD within a few months after the season ends. And shows that find an audience whatever the initial medium could be delivered this way.

xStreamHD will have to be well capitalized for the long haul. And they are initially going to have to give away their boxes, dishes, etc. for an 18-month contract. But they and their competitors - Unbox, Vudu, etc. - are pointing away from DVD's and cable or satellite tv as the delivery medium. And TV manufacturers are now joining them.

Ironically, that's what the writer's strike is all about.