Monday, September 7, 2009

The Leno gamble - what's really at risk

This week's TIME magazine has Jay Leno on the cover and describes "Jay Leno is the Future of Television" in its headline. The portion of the article that is not directly about Jay Leno is devoted to the same discussion offered here in November of 2007 in the series of posts headed The Screen Writers Guild strike, technology, and the future of scripted television.

Near the end of the article is the following paragraph:

Maybe the fact that NBC is, essentially, doing what cable channels do (that is, reducing costs and targeting its scripted shows) is a harbinger of the day when it, or another big network, will literally become a cable channel, trading the system of local affiliates for the freedom and licensing fees of cable.

That is the backhanded recognition of what NBC is putting at risk. As I wrote in April NBCU has no intention of serving the interest of NBC affiliates. The Washington Post's TV columnist Lisa de Moraes observed this week quite correctly:

NBC is now playing a different game, with new rules. That game is called Programming to Margins. NBC suits think they can win by slashing costs to rack up points with shareholders and thus declare a new form of victory in which you can win even if you haven't had a bona fide hit in years.

NBC suits know Leno's new comedy show won't attract as many viewers as the scripted dramas the other networks have scheduled at 10 p.m. weekdays: "CSI: Miami," "Private Practice," "The Mentalist," etc. They concede that this means advertisers will not pay as much for ad time on Leno's show as they will for ad time in those scripted series. The execs believe they have guaranteed their own success if only because Leno's show will cost so much less to produce. Leno recently bragged to a gathering of reporters that he can make a whole week's worth of "The Jay Leno Show" for the price of one episode of "CSI: Miami."

GE management which includes NBC management has created lowered expectations, particularly among shareholders. If the profit line on the NBCU division known as NBC rises for two quarters because of the decision about Leno, GE management has succeeded. That doesn't mean that the Leno Show has succeeded as entertainment.

Over the next three years, the network broadcast TV station properties will shift to meet the ratings as the NBC-owned New York station already has by reducing news and creating locally marketable local oriented programming. If anything, they are focusing on creating a record of delivering live-eyes on ads.

NBC owns broadcast stations in the following eight (out of 210) DMA's (designated market area) representing 25% of the nation's "TV homes":

1. New York City
2. Los Angeles
3. Chicago
4. Philadelphia
5. Dallas/Fort Worth
6. San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose
9. Washington, D.C./Hagerstown, MD
16. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

But those large-population DMA stations aren't affiliates, they're owned - they have the resources of NBCU and GE plus large numbers of viewers within the DMA. In the remaining 202 DMA's representing 75% of "TV homes" somebody else owns the NBC affiliate stations. Consider the situation of the affiliates in the following DMA's:

107. Ft. Wayne
108. Reno
109. Youngstown
110. Tyler-Longview
111. Springfield-Holyoke
112. Boise
113. Sioux Falls(Mitchell)
114. Lansing

In these much smaller population DMA's, even if they captured the entire 5 pm - 6 pm viewers available, the affiliate cannot deliver anything resembling the number of eyes the NBC property in New York City can guarantee to advertisers as a minimum for that time slot where they've put new locally created programming. Nor are there the number of local businesses from which to solicit ads. So those affiliates aren't going to have the flexibility to deal effectively with the loss of advertising income from their 10 pm network show and from their 11:00 pm news show and maybe even from their 11:35 pm NBC late night show.

Five years from now these small DMA affiliate stations may be sorry they kept their NBC affiliation instead of embracing the NBC "Programming to Margins" business model as their own.

That model suggests that the smaller DMA stations may want to drop their expensive NBC affiliation in favor of a syndicated and local programming schedule costing 20% of their network affiliation, which would allow them to retain 100% of whatever advertising revenue they can generate.

Losing up to 50% of the "TV homes" is the long term risk NBC is taking by changing it's model from that maintained by CBS and ABC to a new model. It is not even that model of 10-11 pm local programming used by Fox which benefits the affiliates.

And if NBC longs to become a cable channel as TIME speculates, what will it do with its owned local stations? Those stations derive much of their current value from NBC programming. Without it, the value of these assets would plunge.

In the short term, NBC's Leno move may work for NBC within the GE corporate style. But it may not work for the affiliate stations. And realistically, if it doesn't work for the affiliates, it won't work for the NBC-owned stations. Sure NBC could become a cable channel but that won't help with the loss of asset value and the loss of goodwill in the broadcast industry.

Unlike the manufacturing properties owned by GE, maximizing quarterly profit margins within a 24-month or less window can't guarantee retaining the value of NBC over the five-year period. Sometimes accepting less profit for four years is a better five-year long-term strategy. It most certainly would have been for GE's banking properties and it's there that GE needs to look for helpful management cues for NBC, not in its aircraft engine division.

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Broadcast station retransmission fees - Congress needs to step in

Nowadays, network executives are as likely to be plotting to extract “retransmission consent” fees from cable operators as they are to be gathering around their magnetic scheduling boards and shifting shows from slot to slot. - from "Don't Touch That Dial", a 2006 book review by Tad Friend in the New Yorker

The time has come for Congress to deal with the absurdity of the retransmission fee issue for broadcast network TV.

The problem is simple. Local broadcast TV stations owners want a significant source of non-advertising revenue as their commitment to producing local programming, including local news, ceases. The national broadcast network executives, whose programming is carried on those stations, also appear to want a significant source of non-advertising revenue. Both have determined that the source will be "retransmission fees."

When Congress originally established licensing for local TV stations it was to benefit the public. Now that the stations have gone digital as required by Congress, each one of those stations has been given at no extra licensing competition cost the potential to broadcast two to four discrete signals known as subchannels. Those licenses are for broadcasting signals that are free to anyone who has a tuner within the stations Designated Marketing Area (DMA) in return for the right to broadcast owned content exclusively, including national network content for those affiliated with such networks.

The problem is that "free" has been interpreted as meaning, "well, not really free for most of the people watching the station." You see, most of us watch TV via cable or satellite and the stations and the networks have already started seeking significant per-customer fees from the cable and satellite carriers. Ultimately, that fee is passed on to the viewer.

Now I have no problem with ABC, CBS, Fox, MyNetworkTV, NBC, PBS, and The CW charging carriers for their program as does TNT or The Discovery Channel. Just so long as the "must carry" rule requiring cable and satellite carriers to carry local channels is eliminated and the national broadcast networks provide a direct signal for all their programming to the carriers like TNT and The Discovery Channel do - no middleman such as a local station.

For satellite carriers particularly, the cost of bandwidth to carry all those broadcast network stations is very expensive. If they could provide broadcast network programming to all their customers, perhaps with an East and West feed like many of the cable channels, without paying fees to local stations then the issue of whether local stations constitute a local public service could finally be acknowledged honestly. Two in each DMA could be carried for the local emergency broadcast system, two for redundancy. And the ones that have the most to offer viewers would likely be carried because of viewer demand. The rest could go bankrupt if they can't attract off-the-air viewers which they should. Just how many stations offering reruns of "Friends" do people really need?

Why bring this up now? It appears from a MediaPost article by Wayne Friedman on Friday that the networks are starting to sniff around retransmission fees again stating:

If you were to ask broadcast executives where the big new stream of revenue will come from in the coming years, you might guess wrong.

Digital ad revenue? Subscription fees from new online services? Video on demand? One senior broadcast TV executive told me plainly: "It is retransmission fees, pure and simple."

Since the networks don't provide the signal, exactly what are they looking for? Why should we TV signal carrier customers pay the networks and also pay the local stations whose signal we should be getting for free?

There is an inherent anti-public-interest attitude in all this. It's time for Congress to explain to the networks that they can depend on "off the air" federally licensed local stations or they can depend on cable/satellite carriers for revenue. But only one fee source is going to be allowed.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

NBCU solidifies its TV structure - Silverman out, finally

As I noted in April in March at the Media Summit conference Zucker said: "We are, first and foremost, a cable network company." Today it was announced that Zucker put NBC under the control of of his cable operations boss.

You can read this from many sources but The Hollywood Reporter broke it up into two articles. First we have from Ben Silverman out at NBC Universal:
Quote:
After a rocky two-year tenure, Ben Silverman stepped down Monday as co-chairman of NBC Entertainment and Universal Media Studios to launch a company with Internet mogul Barry Diller.

NBC Universal is consolidating all of its TV entertainment operations under company veteran Jeff Gaspin, who has been named chairman of the combined new division, NBC Universal Television Entertainment. The move gives Gaspin oversight of NBC and UMS, with Marc Graboff -- who ran the units with Silverman -- now reporting to him.
"A rocky two-year tenure" is a generous description of what's happened to NBC in the past two years.

From Jeff Gaspin is a change of pace: New NBC Uni TV chief brings buttoned-down efficiency:
Quote:
With the surprise selection of Jeff Gaspin to add oversight of NBC Universal's broadcast business to the cable division, CEO Jeff Zucker is elevating an executive who might be the antithesis of outgoing programming chief Ben Silverman.

If Silverman is the brash showman with little to show off, the buttoned-down Gaspin prefers to let the revenue generated by NBC Uni's booming cable business speak for itself. In the second quarter recently reported by General Electric, Gaspin's cable division defied the downward trend dragging down NBC Uni by posting a 7% year-over-year increase in operating profit compared with 2008, to $595 million.
"Surprise selection?" Only in Hollywood would someone think that making money in an economic downturn is a surprising criteria to use to pick someone to replace a loser. While President/CEO of NBC Universal Jeff Zucker has supported Silverman's cost cutting, profit-centered moves such as vertical integration, from MediaPost here's his comment about putting Gaspin in charge:
Quote:
"Jeff Gaspin is an extraordinary media professional who has had an incredible record of success in his 25 years in the business. He's a strong creative executive who also has the business acumen necessary to succeed in today's media environment. This new structure helps us align all of our television entertainment assets under one veteran executive at a time when continued innovation is essential."
The big question is: "Can Gaspin bail out NBC?" Will he continue the network's slow march to become become only or mostly news, sports, and televaudeville as I predicted in November 2007? Or will he ultimately solidify the two-hour prime-time model that is the standard on cable, leaving the 10:00 pm slot to "Leno" or if that doesn't work to the locals?

It's been my opinion for some time now that Zucker's NBCU is the future of TV meaning:
  • A variety of cable channels under one roof as NBCU cable channels include, among others, Bravo, Universal HD, Chiller, CNBC, MSNBC, Syfy (formerly SciFi), Telemundo, Sleuth, and USA. NBCU is 25% owner of the A&E television networks which includes, among others, the cable channels A&E, History Channel, and the Biography Channel.
  • A strong web presence in the form of Hulu and each channel's own web site.
  • A broadcast network structure that places a greater burden on the local broadcast station in the hinterlands to find programming while the NBC owned large market broadcast stations produce and sell to local advertisers local-interest programming.
Regarding the competition, it appears that CBS will focus on retaining its top position in the broadcast network business with the most viewers.

News Corp with Fox focused on the two hour primetime will now compete with NBC and The CW for that "18-49 demo" which is a declining audience. And News Corp was a co-founder of Hulu and has a prime time cable presence with FX. It's as if these two competitors are focused on the same model.

Disney with ABC, still in the three hour primetime model, will compete with CBS for total viewers though one has to wonder if they are dividing their audience into some kind of family model - Disney Channel viewers (kids, mostly), ABC Family (pre-teens and teens, mostly which competes with The CW), and ABC (family oriented adults). Disney does have a strong online presence.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

"Torchwood: Children of Earth" - a modern morality tale

"That's what Torchwood does, you see: it ruins your life," Gwen Cooper emphatically states towards the end of "Torchwood: Children of Earth" and indeed the story line is that disturbing. In fact, it should be regarded as a politically charged, not very subtle anti-establishment piece. But first, a momentary side discussion.

"We've got great reaction from viewers on our HD service," channel publicity VP Amy Mulcair said on the second day of the highly promoted HD introduction week. "Everyone's very keen to see it and we're very keen for them to see it. And we're glad to say there are a number of deals that will be announced imminently."

"Imminently" isn't in time for the much ballyhooed launch featuring "Torchwood: Children of Earth" which, along with the other scifi programming this week, was not carried in HD on a single cable or satellite system.

But not having "Torchwood: Children of Earth" in HD did not keep the miniseries from being one of the best shows offered by any channel this Summer. Picking up from its moderately successful second season which ended with the death of two of the five principal characters, it was the number one show for five nights running in the UK with the first episode of the third series was watched by 5.9 million viewers and the last by 5.8 million - the average audience for series two ranged between 2.5 and 4.2 million. It will be interesting to see if BBCA pulled in over 3 million.

Fans of the series at once are crushed by the death of the popular character Ianto and the dark turn taken by the primary "Dr. Who" type character Captain Jack Harkness in, as noted above, an unusually dark story line.

For me the crux of the story relates to the belief by an alien species that humans are, in fact and with a great deal of irony, "inhuman" meaning "lacking qualities of sympathy, pity, warmth, compassion, or the like; cruel; brutal" particularly in regard to our own species. The aliens, called 456, want 10% of the Earth's children. When an objection is raised by Captain Jack the 456 response is “but you’re letting children die every day; why would you mind this?” They offer statistics we all know but don't care about. Over 25,000 children die every day around the world. That is equivalent to:
  • 1 child dying every 3.5 seconds
  • 17-18 children dying every minute
  • Over 9 million children dying every year
  • Some 70 million children dying between 2000 and 2007
Our children (the alien assumes "our" because we are a single species) die of hunger, easily preventable diseases and illnesses, and other poverty related causes. In spite of the scale of this ongoing catastrophe, humanity does nothing to solve a problem that could be solved.

Given this inhuman nature of our species, an alien species that appears to be able to kill us all, merely wants 10% of our children. We are presented a meeting of elected and appointed officials discussing criteria for selecting children based on their desirability, which concluded as such a meeting would that most would be chosen from the poor all for the good of society as a whole.

This shouldn't be too disturbing because the Nazi's in fact did hold the Wannsee Conference to establish criteria for the processes of the "final solution" and in fact most of the foot soldiers in most armies around the world who are sent to kill and die for the good of their nation are mostly the poor.

It would seem so logical to an alien observing humanity over time that we could select 10% of our children to give to aliens for the good of the remainder of humanity. Day in and day out as a species the richest societies buy iPods while far more than 10% of human young die from preventable causes.

In Britain the one frequent fan criticism of the show is that somehow the writers were trying to write a Shakespearean tragedy. Personally, I thought it was more akin to the tragedies of the ancient Greek myths. But regardless, it was a story of that level.

Yes, like all such TV scifi presentations to a degree you have to suspend disbelief (what, unlike everything else on TV???). And yes, you can always find something that has been done before with similarities, even as far back an ancient Greek myths.

But like those myths, it was a modern morality tale with it's flawed hero. Well done!

Friday, May 29, 2009

"Mental" on Fox - Tight Writing, Good Storyline, Good Cast. What's Not to Like?

I was surprised, no shocked, that I liked this show because almost every critic (with few exceptions) gave a big thumbs down. Based on those reviews, I expected it to be "House lite". As far as I'm concerned, nothing could be further from the truth.

Yes, it's on Fox. So is "Dollhouse" and it even has "house" in its name, but it's not "House." Yes, the star of "Mental" is a Brit. But he doesn't hide his accent. Maybe that should have been the first clue to considering the show on its own merits.

Here's the plot summary of the pilot:

Dr. Jack Gallagher (Chris Vance, "Prison Break" 2007-8 season), Psychiatrist, spends his first day as Director of Psychiatric Services at Los Angeles' Wharton Memorial Hospital trying to win over his colleagues and his boss Nora Skoff (Annabella Sciorra).

Because he's a psychiatrist he's a doctor, but like House? Marcus Welby, MD was a doctor. He wasn't like House. And neither is the principle character in "Mental".

Dr. Jack Gallagher first appears in the show in the Hospital Lobby where everyone else is waiting for some cops to take down a patient in a psychotic break with schizophrenia, played by Silas Weir Mitchell who plays psychotic so well, and who has taken off his clothes to prove he's a human to everyone else who he sees as non-human reptilians. After observing for a few seconds, Gallagher strips and tells him he's human too.

So he's relating sympathetically to patients. He's trying to win over his colleagues. That's definitely not Gregory House, M.D.

It is about psychiatry and psychotic patients (not neurotic people). It's tightly written and has some potentially interesting characters. It should be a stimulating show. If the first episode is any indication it will provide a serious look at mental illness and treatment options. It's not House but it could be just as interesting. It's weekly subjects likely will have more in common with the "ER" episodes with the Sally Field character who is bipolar.

It's a Summer show so it probably won't be canceled after the third episode. If it might appeal to you, give it shot.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Hulu.com - Now Home of the Big 3

In the original six part series posted here November 12, 2007, the importance of the birth of Hulu.com parented by NBCU and Fox was described. Also noted in that series was the following:

Disney (ABC) CEO Bob Iger was called upon to defend the company's narrow online video distribution at a recent corporate event. After doing a song and dance defense, he described it as an interesting debate, explaining that the original idea of amassing most of the video on ABC.com was to promote the shows, use the site to upsell and "it also became a pretty good platform for advertisers."

He added: "We're going to take a pretty expansive view. .. We're going to be on more places than iTunes, ABC.com and AOL."

This week we've learned that Disney/ABC has become a partner in Hulu.com. I'm hoping this current HULU business model of free access with advertising support works out. But no one should be under no illusion that the free access model is the long term plan.

(For discussion purposes below, my use of the ubiquitous "they" means the large media, cable, and media+cable conglomerates. And I don't mean to imply a "conspiracy against the viewing public" but more a "joint effort to find a corporate economic model in which the existing few can thrive.")

The current HULU system isn't the model under discussion as the long term plan in the media, cable and advertising industry trade press. Apparently the cable companies want access to current programming on media company sites restricted to cable and satellite TV subscribers with some sort of "restricted membership access" model.

They would prefer an IPTV model using Tru2way enabled boxes. The ideal in their mind would be to allow access to "current program" streaming based on your package, so if your cable/satellite package doesn't give you access to the FX channel you can't stream an FX program shown in the past two years.

But they appear to have decided to settle for:
  1. access restricted to "cable channel" subscribers through any cable or satellite system; and
  2. allowing a PPV internet streaming system while offering "a better way" using set top boxes that recognize the viewer's programming package.
The media companies are sympathetic to the cable companies because at this point the advertising revenue doesn't support the basic on line operation of a site like Hulu.com, much less provide a revenue stream to help pay for the programming and generate a profit.

They envision some type of PPV revenue model for "current TV" and "newer movie" content based on streaming activities, such as 29¢ per episode stream or $1.59 per movie stream with limited advertising, perhaps offering an ad free alternative for an extra $1 per stream or annual subscription.

Content is being aggregated through the media-company-jointly-owned Hulu.com for three of the four major TV broadcast networks, their sister cable channels, and their sister media production and distribution companies (which represents a huge chunk of the media industry). CBS bought TV.com and is restructuring it to accomplish the same purpose as Hulu where, I would guess, we'll see CBS and Viacom content offered, ultimately maybe with Time-Warner and/or Sony.

I have to credit both NBCU (GE) and Fox (News Corp) for moving rapidly to creat an effective web site and experimenting with different outlet approaches. They're in a position to adapt to the economic needs of the cable/telcom-TV/ISP giants, while cleverly threading their way through the regulatory minefield. They haven't tripped and probably will avoid tripping any FCC/SEC/Justice Department mines by licensing content to Apple (which already has a fee structure), the new Google-owned YouTube media site, and Amazon's streaming system as well as the cable-owned web sites like Fancast.

In 2011 as the economic model becomes clearer, they'll make concessions to labor on residuals from internet content revenues. They don't want a protracted labor dispute which could raise antitrust issues.

The ultimate goal is to end up with as few originating sources for PPV video streaming as possible for media-conglomerate-owned content. Then, they'll launch a major attack on the video file-sharing pirates. Beginning in 2012, BitTorrent users may find themselves in a seriously troubling environment.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

It's not whether the show is 1st or 4th....

On a forum recently a member raised a question related to the suspense of what shows will not be picked up for another season:

So considering the 4 major OTA networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC)... someone has to be in 1st place, and someone has to be in 4th place no matter how good or bad the show!

So I guess I wonder... when a network sees a show #4 in the ratings for a night... what are they hoping for? Would they rather sink the slot by putting Dog-Walkers Idol and put no money into it? Or try to make it better by upgrading the quality of the show?

The issue isn't rankings, it's ratings. The Live+SD (Same Day) Nielsen ratings mean everything because they determine the money flow and it's all about money.

Based on the Nielsens, last Monday at 8 pm there were 47 million Live+ SD viewers watching broadcast TV while last Friday there were only 21 million. On any night, the 10 pm slot delivers half the total of 8 pm viewers.

What is a network to do in...say... a Monday night 8 pm slot? If the top 4 networks were within a couple of million total viewers and 1.0 in the demos, it wouldn't matter who is 1st and who is 4th. But "Dancing with the Stars had 17 million viewers while "Chuck" had 6 million. Let's take a closer look at the Monday facts.

"Terminator: The Sara Conner Chronicles" on Fox could never compete with ABC's "Dancing with the Stars", but "House" is delivering for its advertisers Live+SD viewers in the 18-49 demo (4.3), even though "Dancing" (3.8) has higher total viewers 17 million to 11 million.

The CBS comedy lineup at that time delivers at a relatively low cost a consistent audience, both total (9.3 million) and demo (3.4), while "Chuck" at a relatively high cost can't deliver the audience numbers with its 5.95 million and 2.2. Those "Chuck" numbers are not meaningfully higher to advertisers then The CW's "Gossip Girl" which is a low rent production on a low rent network with a relatively narrow target audience which it delivers to advertisers.

There is a huge industry out there devoted to advertising. Ultimately, they decide where the ad dollars go, not the networks. The advertisers want to feel they are getting some return from their investment. The networks have to deliver to the advertisers an audience based on the Nielsen Live+SD ratings. Subsequent DVR viewings don't count in the ad world.

For me the time slot of the show is irrelevant. I'm a 100% DVR viewer, mostly not same day and many not even in the same season. I'm of zero value to advertisers and therefore zero value to the shows I watch. Of course, my wife and I are not in the demo and aren't a Nielsen household and make no impact anyway.

Some execs at NBC love "Chuck". There are 6 million consistent viewers who love "Chuck". But the broadcast TV advertisers want 10 million viewers before they would pay what it takes to offset the costs of delivering an episode of "Chuck." GE, NBCU's parent company, isn't interested in the personal tastes of the NBC execs or the 6 million viewers. They're interested in net profit.

Then you get to the cost of the shows. Some shows carry star costs, such as "Brothers & Sisters" in which a number of stars probably get well over $100,000 per episode. But shows like "Chuck" or "Terminator: The Sara Conner Chronicles" don't have many highly paid actors, though the top stars are likely to be getting $80,000 and up per episode. Both of those shows have heavy action production costs, special effects, etc. which increase the total cost per episode, costs that don't exist in "Brothers & Sisters" which is pretty much shot like a soap opera. All these shows cost enough that the networks have to place them where they can get top advertising revenue. An episode of your favorite broadcast network show costs $500,000 (cheap game and reality shows) to $3 million (high end scripted drama).

NBCU executives two years ago looked into their crystal ball and said this financial model won't work by 2010 even taking into account DVD sales, on line viewing, syndication, foreign sales, etc. They've shifted the focus to cable channels.

A ceiling appears to have been set on per-episode production costs of $750,000 for the best drama for cable, with a desired average of under $500,000. USA can market 13 episodes of four to six of these in any one year and make money.

In some cases like "Monk" and "Law & Order:Criminal Intent", the show earns money for NBCU on both USA and NBC so the production costs could run a little higher. I believe that the goal at NBC is cutting by half the average cost for an hour of prime time broadcast TV by 2010.

Fox has taken a different "bean counter" mentality - deliver the audience or you're out. Each year they go with a certain number of higher budget scripted shows with the proviso that a show that can't make a target per minute net revenue is a quickly replaced show. In some cases, a big advertiser might make a commitment through product placement and commercials that keeps a show on. But most advertisers will bail on a show with lower ratings and, as a result, Fox focuses on those ratings.

There is an alternative - a premium cable channel offering three hours of scripted series shows a night - which I proposed in a previous blog post. HBO is offering a smattering of shows. And DirecTV appears to be doing the same on its Channel 101. But nothing as ambitious as my proposal has been seen in "the biz" journals.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

The New Sprummer Scripted TV Season

It has become apparent that the broadcast networks have designed a two part season that begins in earnest September/October and ends April/May with a mid-year mini-shift that occurs January/February. This is the Fall/Winter Season and appears to be about 9 months long and which I now name Fallter, pun intended.

The cable networks appear to have designed a season that begins April/May and ends September/October with a mid-season mini-shift that occurs somewhere in the middle. This is the Spring/Summer Season and appears to be about 6 months long and is what I now name Sprummer.

Obviously the two seasons overlap as we don't have a 15 month year. And the cable networks tend to show half of the seasons episodes of a show beginning in the Sprummer airing the second half beginning around the first of the calendar year during Fallter, when the broadcast networks are fumbling to get replacements for their faltering shows.

So we have a new Sprummer Season already under way. Based on available information the cable channels, with little help from the broadcast networks, will give us a solid scripted show lineup. While the following list is not complete, and certainly many shows are far from potential Emmy winners, it is pretty impressive given what Summer TV offerings used to be like:




Day Series Title Premier
Network
Status



SUNDAY

AMC Breaking Bad Currently Airing
AMC Mad Men Not Scheduled
HBO No.1 Ladies Detective Agency Currently Airing
HBO In Treatment Currently Airing
HBO True Blood June 14
Lifetime Army Wives June 07
Lifetime Drop Dead Diva July 12
NBC Merlin June 21
USA Law & Order: Criminal Intent Currently Airing
USA In Plain Sight Currently Airing



MONDAY

ABC Family Secret Life American Teenager June 22
ABC Family Make It or Break It June 22
Showtime Weeds June 08
Showtime Nurse Jackie June 08
TNT The Closer June 08
TNT Raising the Bar June 08



TUESDAY

ABC Family 10 Things I Hate July 07
ABC Family Ruby & the Rockets July 21
ABC Family Lincoln Heights August 04
FX Rescue Me Currently Airing
Syfy Warehouse 13 July 07
TBS My Boys Currently Airing
TNT Saving Grace June 16
TNT HawthoRNe June 16



WEDNESDAY

ABC The Goode Family May 27
ABC Surviving Suburbia (from hiatus) May 27
ABC The Unusuals (from hiatus) May 27
NBC The Philanthropist June 24
TNT Leverage July 15
TNT Dark Blue July 15



THURSDAY

NBC The Listener June 04
USA Burn Notice June 04
USA Royal Pains June 04



FRIDAY

BBCA Hotel Babylon Not Scheduled
Fox Mental May 22
Syfy Eureka July 10
USA Monk Not Scheduled
USA Psych Not Scheduled



SATURDAY

BBCA Primeval May 16
BBCA Robin Hood Not Scheduled
BBCA Torchwood Not Scheduled

Friday, April 24, 2009

"1948 All Over Again" Revisited

On November 12, 2007, a six part series on the future of scripted TV and the home entertainment industry was posted here which contained the following:

Neither television industry executives, nor the writers, nor any of us viewers know where scripted episodic drama and comedy programming will end up within five years. We need to think in terms of media, source of funding, format or survival.

Since then significant changes in the industry provide some directional arrows pointing to how the future might look. And some of these arrows are clearly pointing to a revolution in home entertainment.

It is clear that this revolution does resemble the period from 1948 to 1958 when television displaced radio and movie theaters as the source of entertainment and news for Americans, and audio recording tape gained a foothold on home reproduction of music sources and serving as a portent of the impact of the DVR.

The difference is that the 50 years that have passed did result in an acceleration in the effects of technology on American life. This requires business to adapt rapidly to changes in how Americans live which occur much more rapidly.

Consider for a moment the iPod. Introduced in October 2001, it and/or the iPhone (and similar devices) are embedded in 21st Century world-wide culture as a means of communications, listening to music, and viewing photos and video, as well as a means of creating photos and video.

Yawn. So what else isn't new?

Somewhere in all this technological change, the owner of one of our most venerable broadcast television networks - NBC - has essentially declared the old model of broadcast television dead. As noted here earlier this month, top management of GE and its subsidiary NBC Universal (NBCU) have embraced the company's niche cable channels.

This fall NBC will reduce the number of week day hours of prime time available for scripted programming from three to two by assigning the 10 p.m. time slot to a Jay Leno televaudeville show, aligning its programming model more with Fox and The CW then ABC and CBS.

And at an April 8 Syracuse University’s S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications symposium exploring the pioneering work of executive producer and network television executive Fred Silverman, Silverman himself speculated that the networks will eventually give the 8 p.m. slot back to the affiliates to fill with local and syndicated programming tailored to the region they serve or, in he case of he less imaginative, reruns. (He also speculated on the end of network-provided daytime soap operas.)

GE through NBCU has also embraced the web for presenting professional TV productions and movies, most significantly its Hulu.com system developed in partnership with News Corp's Fox. (It is a system, not just a web site, as others can feed its content through their own web sites including most notably Comcast's Fancast site which is part of Comcast Interactive Media.)

According to a recent Business Week article, many expect Disney/ABC to take an equity stake in Hulu. In the meantime, in 2008 CBS Interactive bought the parent company of TV.com announcing in December that the site would add and emphasize an HD video gallery with full episode streams.

Now the media conglomerates are negotiating with the cable and satellite companies to create a model that allows access to on-line conglomerate produced video only if you are a subscriber to a cable/satellite package that contributes to the revenue stream supporting the cost of producing that video.

And the cable companies this year will be introducing "tru2way" enabled set-top boxes allowing subscribers to easily play games, browse the web, and chat, as well as stream on the bandwidth assigned to TV newer shows that aren't even on line.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Chronicle TV columnist Tim Goodman recently advocated "the Netflix solution", meaning that in these hard economic times folks should drop the premium channels at $150± a year each and selectively rent or buy series show box sets. And Goodman even suggests viewers may want to drop cable altogether.

What's a fan of scripted TV to do as these changes begin to snowball? The upcoming Summer Season will be discussed in the next post.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Proposal: A Scripted TV Premium Cable Network

The struggle to sell scripted TV series has become more difficult in the current economy for obvious reasons. And it appears that it is easier to recover the production and delivery cost of an hour of news, sports, and televaudeville (any show other than news and sports that doesn't depend upon professional actors performing scripted scenes for its entertainment content).

From my perspective, this situation is creating an artistic loss. For instance, the allocation by NBC of a Jay Leno televaudeville show in the week day 10 pm slot represents the the loss of financial support for five 26-episode scripted programs per year.

This situation in broadcast TV is only going to get worse, not better. So I would like to offer a solution. We need to create a "scripted TV series" cable premium network. For discussion purposes, I'll call it the "ScriptTV" network.

Over two 26-week seasons per year ScriptTV would during the time period of 5 pm - 2 am Eastern Time run three hours of new one hour or 30-minute scripted episodes of TV shows without advertising. The cycle would look like this:

The economic model for ScriptTV would look something like this:
  • The remaining 15 hours per day would be filled with syndicated reruns of older TV series supported by 360 seconds of advertising per hour of show.
  • The ScriptTV channel would be priced to subscribers by cable and satellite systems at $12-$15 per month; subscribers also would have access to its web site to stream episodes of shows aired in the past 52 weeks.
  • The ScriptTV channel would pay up to 80% of the production costs for each show and receive up to an 80% ownership interest in the show along with the first showing rights worldwide; each show's season would be offered as an exclusive for one year to broadcast and non-premium cable networks to be shown after the season run on ScriptTV; after any network exclusive expires, the show would be offered as a syndicated show and be sold on DVD.
In order to secure subscribers, ScriptTV would adopt the following policies:
  • Of its three hours of nightly original scripted programming, ScriptTV would seek to offer on average one hour per night of family-oriented programming and two-hours of "grownup" oriented programming.
  • Each show's producers/creators would be contracted to create a 26-week story arc with plans for a full-resolution series end; however, ScriptTV would have the option to pick up an additional full season before the airing of the 20th episode which might require alteration plans for the season's last two or three shows.
  • ScriptTV would not cancel any show in mid-season.
  • ScriptTV would regularly poll its subscribers regarding its programming.
HBO has 38 million subscribers. This business model would not need more than 2 million subscribers to succeed.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

NBC's Degenerative Disease

"Yes, that ad supported NBC channel you watch now may degenerate into only news, sports, and televaudeville." - The Lost Scripts, November 12, 2007
When I wrote the statement above, it was clear to me that Jeff Zucker, President & CEO of NBC Universal, had plans. They were a bit fuzzy at the time, but the hints were there. Much has come into focus since then. But then in March at the Media Summit conference Zucker said: "We are, first and foremost, a cable network company." GE's CEO Jeff Immelt discussed the situation in the GE 2008 Annual Report:
NBC UNIVERSAL earned about $3 billion last year. It’s likely to be down in 2009, as we expect the network environment to be particularly tough. But cable, more than 60% of our earnings, is going to continue to be a source of strength, building on its ratings success in 2008. Our movie business has already invested in new films for next year, which will also support DVD sales. Our strengths are good content, a strong cable focus, and international distribution. Jeff Zucker and his team have done a great job in repositioning NBC Universal to win in the rapidly changing media landscape.
If basically you are a broadcast network viewer, you should be aware that GE's CEO essentially dismissed its broadcast TV subsidiary NBC and embraced cable. NBCU cable channels include, among others, Bravo, Universal HD, Chiller, CNBC, MSNBC, Syfy (formerly SciFi), Telemundo, Sleuth, and USA. NBCU is 25% owner of the A&E television networks which includes, among others, the cable channels A&E, History Channel, and the Biography Channel.

You need to be aware that NBCU owns a strong, competitive general programming cable network - USA. It's had great success with scripted shows. Recent original scripted shows have included: The 4400, Burn Notice, The Dead Zone, In Plain Sight, Monk, Psych, The Starter Wife. Some of these shows, indicated in red, were/are produced wholly or in part by an NBCU subsidiary.

NBCU's apparent business model is "balanced vertical integration" meaning it has some control over it's products from the raw materials to delivery to the customer.1 (Technically, cable and satellite TV companies "retail" the USA and Syfy channels to the public. But, in fact, those channels directly sell the product to advertisers and to the cable companies. They then fund their own marketing to attract and retain viewers.)

So will the broadcast arm of NBCU - NBC - really become only or mostly news, sports, and televaudeville as I predicted in November 2007?

Consider what NBC is doing. They have dedicated the 10:00 pm slot to a new Jay Leno show. Co-chairman of NBC Entertainment and Universal Media Studios Ben Silverman says it will be far more of a comedy show than The Tonight Show. Mike Pilot, president of ad sales for NBC has indicated that the new show will offer more opportunities for live commercials.

Having abandoned the traditional "upfront" ad sales system, NBC will hold an “in front,” apparently on May 4, when it will simply announce its fall prime time lineup two weeks before the other networks’ upfronts. According to reports, NBC will hold a comedy showcase on May 19, in the middle of upfront week and on the same day of ABC’s upfront presentation. The event will feature Jay Leno with comedy performers from NBC, including Conan O’Brien and Jimmy Fallon. It will be invitation only for advertisers and executives from NBC affiliated stations.

Theoretically, NBC has 14 hours of Sunday through Friday prime time left to fill this fall (17 hours if you count Saturday, but who does?). After it became apparent that under Ben Silverman tenure as head of programming the network's ratings crashed, in January 2009 Zucker brought in Angela Bromstad to be NBC's chief programmer of dramas and comedies. She is the one who moved Kings to Sunday and bought to make room for Southland. According to a Los Angeles Times article about Bromstad returning:
Kings which costs about $3 million an episode to produce, had been championed by Bromstad's predecessors. But Bromstad had doubts that a drama about a modern-day king who struggles with moral dilemmas and family conflicts would work on network television.

...Also on Bromstad's to-do list is the task of regaining the trust of Hollywood agents and producers who have been alienated by NBC's puzzling proclamations, such as when Silverman said he was "managing for margins," not chasing shows that would generate big ratings.
Returning to my 2007 premise, with Leno NBC has reallocated one-third of it's week day prime time (5 hours) to "televaudeville." And when a show like Kings tanks in the ratings, NBC hauls in Dateline, a news show, to fill the void. In fact, Dateline covers 4 hours of prime-time programming this week.

The only thing standing in the way of NBC stations becoming all news, sports, and televaudeville is Angela Bromstad. Bromstad has a tough job. GE's NBCU star net profit producing TV subsidiaries are the cable channels, not NBC. And GE likes net profit.

Which brings me to the remaining consideration, the local broadcast station. NBCU owns 10 local broadcast stations serving 26.6% of the "TV Homes" in the United States. Those stations serve the metropolitan areas of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas-Ft. Worth, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, Washington DC, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, San Diego, and Hartford-New Haven. The more money these stations make, the more money NBCU makes.

It is likely that four issues will enter into the consideration for future programming decisions. First, how will programming proposals affect NBC's profit. Second, how will programming proposals affect the profit from those 10 broadcast stations. Third, how will programming proposals affect the public reputation of GE. Fourth, and last, how will programming proposals affect the welfare of the broadcast stations owned by others.

For instance, the preferences of viewers in Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, Iowa, representating 0.3% of TV Homes served by Quincy Newspapers-owned KWWL aren't likely to be considered in programming decisions.

And, in fact, the loyalty to the Quincy Newspaper folks will be very limited as even though they own six NBC affiliates in small markets, in those same markets they also own broadcast rights to at least one other network such as Fox and The CW. And in Wisconsin, they own five ABC affiliates.

Not in anyone's wildest dreams would the GE corporate structure cater to the Quincy Newspaper owners opinions instead of the NBC employee managed stations serving the New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas-Ft. Worth, San Francisco Bay Area, Washington, DC, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, San Diego, and Hartford/New Haven metropolitan areas.

Thus when the owner of the Boston NBC affiliate who owns the The CW affiliate in the same market and broadcast the new "This TV" network on a digital subchannel and who owns the Fox affiliate in Miami tried to rebel against the Leno commitment, NBC had virtually no qualms about threatening to pull its programming.

All future programming decisions are going to be determined mostly by what will earn the NBC owned stations in the large urban areas the most money consistent with what will earn NBC and it's production arms the most profit. Expensive scripted programming run at 10:00 pm returns poor profits for NBC and its owned stations. A Leno televaudeville show will be relatively cheap to produce, attract sufficient national advertising revenue direct to NBC, and attract high priced local advertising to the NBC-owned stations serving 26.6% of the "TV Homes" in the United States.

In raw numbers, the NBC stations will broadcast 4 fewer hours of scripted programming a week which represents a 40%+ drop over a year. In terms of the five principle national networks, it represents a 10%+ drop. Whether Leno will affect the ratings for ABC and CBS programming in those slots remains to be seen.

But if, as I suspect, it does produce greater profits for GE, that ad supported NBC channel you watch now may degenerate into only news, sports, and televaudeville. Those of us who prefer scripted programming will be forced to have more DVR's recording cable channel programming.


    1Consider the USA show In Plain Sight. It's production company is Universal Media Studios. It's season one DVD is from Universal Studios Home Entertainment. Then we come to Hulu.com, NBCU's major web presence shared with News Corp. The new season of In Plain Sight starts next Sunday. If you need to catch up a bit, you can watch the last five episodes of season one at Hulu or the USA web site.
     Vertical integration isn't always the case. USA's popular show
Burn Notice is produced by Fox Television Studios, a News Corp. subsidiary. In fact, if you poke around the web a bit you'll discover that some cross-pollination occurs between NBCU and News Corp. For instance, one of the production companies for the Fox Network's hit show House is an NBCU subsidiary. And you can watch the last five episodes on line at Hulu, the News Corp and NBCU owned web site.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

NBCU and the new Sifee Channel

For a moment, pretend you're a bit of a science nerd. How would you go about sounding out a word that begins with "sy"? Hmm. Well, "system" or "symbiotic" or "synchronous" comes immediately to mind.

Then let's consider sounding out words that end with "fy". This is actually a bit harder, but if we check a rhyming dictionary "iffy" or "jiffy" or "spiffy" immediately come up.

So how will we pronounce the word "syfy"? That's right, "sif-ee", which is the new name the genius team at the SciFi Channel chose to be the new name of their channel.

SciFi is, of course, shortmouth for science fiction. From Wikipedia:
Science fiction (abbreviated SF or sci-fi with varying punctuation and capitalization) is a broad genre of fiction that often involves speculations based on current or future science or technology.....

Science fiction differs from fantasy in that, within the context of the story, its imaginary elements are largely possible within scientifically established or scientifically postulated laws of nature (though some elements in a story might still be pure imaginative speculation)....

If you're a fan of science fiction and of the SciFi Channel, you know that the programmers and other powers-that-be at that NBCU operation do not limit the programming to science fiction. They include a broad range of fantasy, occult, and related material. They even offer wrestling. Yep, that's right, wrestling.

So perhaps a less genre-restrictive name might be appropriate. But this is what they came up with:

Apparently they want to be known as the Sifee Channel.

NBCU also owns the Chiller Channel which is a a horror-genre cable channel. It also owns Sleuth, the cable channel dedicated to programming in the mystery/crime genre. It also owns USA, the cable channel that is the home to the World Wrestling Federation's flagship cable TV show WWE Raw. But USA is also the home for the popular crime/mystery dramas Monk, Psych, Law & Order: Criminal Intent, In Plain Sight and Burn Notice, as well as two fairly popular science fiction shows The 4400 and The Dead Zone. Which raises the question: "What's NBCU doing with it's cable brands and where does he Sifee Channel fit in?"

Consider the explantions that came with the new Sifee name announcement:
"We love being sci fi, and we're still embracing that," said network president Dave Howe on Friday. "But we're more than just space and aliens and the future -- the three things most people think of when they think of 'sci fi.' "

"We're going to have upwards of 50 Sci Fi Channels in various territories and yet you cannot trademark 'Sci Fi' anywhere in the world," Howe said. "A new logo design would not solve that particular challenge. We needed a brand name that was own-able, portable and extendable."

"The channel has been around for 16 years, and the world has changed in 16 years," Howe said. "Everybody had to watch as a linear channel, you didn't have downloading and you didn't have international channels around the globe."
That all made sense, more or less. But then we got this:
"Our core audience will use it an opportunity to question our motives -- they always do," Howe said. "But what we're embracing is the total sci-fi landscape -- fantasy, paranormal, action-adventure, mystery ... it's imagination-based entertainment."

So the Sifee Channel is going to offer "action-adventure" and "mystery" programming, along with wrestling. Now I'm truly confused.

This is all occurring in the context of the NBC broadcast network being #4 (or even #5) in ratings.

Yet, irony of ironies, market analysts are now giving glowing reviews to G.E. for not selling NBCU. From the NY Times:
Just last year, it seemed a good idea to many on Wall Street that General Electric spin off, or otherwise dispose of, NBC Universal.

Today, if G.E. were not in the media business, it would be in deeper trouble than it already is. Essentially, it would be more dependent on its troublemaking finance unit, GE Capital.
I guess that's true, if viewer opinions and ratings really don't matter or bode ill for NBCU. But I just can't figure out the management strategy for the cable channels, particularly for the Sifee Channel. It looks to me like someone needs to get organized.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Battlestar Galactica- The Best of American TV

Battlestar Galactica is the best completed series ever shown on American TV. And Friday night's 131 minute finale was befitting.

In the simplest sense, I liked the Mash ending and this one because both demonstrated "life went on" which is always a boring thought. The 1950's I actually lived through, in the case of Mash. In the case of Battlestar Galactica, pre-150,000 B.C. now seems almost plausible.

The whole series is an allegorical tale heavily into mythology (and/or religion depending on your point of view) within the framework of a highly technological society.

The "reality" created by the ending was on "our" Earth in the approximate year 150,000 B.C. Given the limits of what we know in genetics, it offered that mankind has a common ancestor who was "half-machine" and "half-evolved human". It offered an evolving concept of hope, that each time "we" do it over again, there's a chance we'll get it right this time. And it reminded us that we are here again because the passion for vengeance is the "evil" that limits possibilities, even for machines we create "in our image" which is what we are doing now, both for domestic chores and for war.

Series creator Ron Moore did use plot devices to wrap things up. Some fams are disappointed that he didn't explain everything. But he promised only that all would be revealed. There is a certain paradoxical situation that so many expected an explanation when the offer was to reveal - revelation is not explanation. In the context of an allegorical tale full of religion, it seems so perfect. We have a tale biblical in scope (old testament), with moral lessons explained in an illusive manner, something akin to parable using metaphors.

And he did it all within the confines of the early 21st Century American TV medium using the combination of two late 20th Century TV constructs - "action adventure" and "soap opera".

Using the TV medium, no team has as been as successful accomplishing this as the Battlestar Galactica team. And no broadcast network would have let them offer such things as humans worshiping "gods" while machines believe in the "one true god" or even the regular use of the invented euphemistic "frak" term. So I have to recognize level of support by NBCU's SciFi Channel.

My greatest fear is that we'll never see this kind of TV again. ABC's Lost might end up joining Battlestar Galactica as quality allegorical TV science fiction if the creators can thread their way through the complexities of theories of time. And I'm recording NBC's Kings because it has this type of potential but it's so limited by the constraints of being on NBC. If NBC pick's it up for a second season, we'll watch it as a season shifted show.

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Give Time Warner Cable a Medal

Time Warner Cable's refusal to even consider Viacom's proposed 25%± increase in carriage fees is an action deserving of commendation and a medal. If Viacom wants to demonstrate how much these channels are worth, unpackage them, set a price for each, have TWC add on it’s costs and a modest profit, and agree to an optional carry contract based upon some drop number like less than 10% of cable customers in a service area. Give the same contract to all carriers, cable and satellite. We’ll see if anything but Nick, MTV, and Comedy Central can survive. (And maybe not all of those.)

Most certainly the time has come to let me subscribe to Comedy Central and dump the rest of those. If I really want to watch "Spongebob", I’ll go to the Nick web site where I can also play games. In fact, if I could get Dish Network to dump Viacom right now, I'd watch Comedy Central shows on the web.

Viacom, of course, is one of those greedy media conglomerates that's telling SAG this isn't the time for seeking more money.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

The SAG saga: the ending has been written on the wall

The reports of the Monday night SAG discussion indicates the kiss of death for the militant's strike vote proposal. This article from The Hollywood Reporter gives a very good feel for the depth of conflict within SAG. Here's a short bit from the long article:

"The contentious and at times bitter meeting capped a roller-coaster four days for SAG, in which opposition to the guild leadership's call for strike authorization has crystallized."

Perhaps what's most disturbing is that many of the well-known millionaire "actors" leading the opposition have resumés filled with "producer" credits. None of these people are facing their elder years supported by income from being a Walmart greeter.

The question is: How can a new bargaining committee get more than $46 a year for new media "rerun" views as opposed to what they get from network and syndicated reruns and from DVD sales? And if they don't get more, can "day performers" survive?

Right now we see younger familiar faces with no name recognition doing bit parts within the "CSI" and "Law & Order" families of shows. Reruns on the various cable channels give them some income to keep them going.

If in the future, rerun views shift to the internet derived from source sites such the GE and News Corp. owned Hulu, that $46-per-year typical residual won't be much of a long-term income plan even when combined with waiting tables. If nothing else, those rerun residuals created a "ownership society" cushion during the wrenching mid-life career change away from acting.

It's difficult to understand why GE and News Corp. don't understand the risks of reducing the incentive for younger actors. Do they have in mind a return to a "contract-class" of studio-owned actors like in the mid-1930's through the early 1950's? Or do they have no idea what they're doing just like the major financial institutions? GE in particular focuses entirely on next quarter's profit increases and dumps any subsidiary that fails to meet the goals. The problem is the subsidiaries aren't allowed much room to invest profits into planning for the long term.

Now probably isn't the time for an actors strike, because GE and News Corp. would be happy to let them be on strike during the time ad revenue plunges in 2009. Reduced production costs would mean better quarterly net revenues.

Had SAG and WGA coordinated an approach to shutting down production in a single strike beginning on April 1, 2008, they might have achieved their objectives within 60 days. Now the economy is in the tank, a shocked WGA is in a legal wrangle with the conglomerates over the post-2007 new media residuals clause in their contract, and SAG is tied up in a bitter internecine power struggle.

Welcome to WalMart folks.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

A Note to Jeff Zucker about the Leno thing

Jeff, I know you’re President and CEO of NBC Universal. So I expect it to be difficult to see the same big picture you see in your head for the NBC broadcast network. While I do understand your efforts to diversify NBCU, I can’t seem to get your view of the prime time TV schedule.

Here’s what I see for the upcoming Winter Season 8-10 pm Monday prime time. Fox with “House” plus “24" and CBS with it’s comedy lineup will own a significant chunk of the audience for scripted programming. ABC will grab off the reality audience chunk with 90 minute “The Bachelor” followed by the popular “Samantha Who”. The younger crowd (along with many of us younger at heart) will be watching either The CW’s “Gossip Girl” and “One Tree Hill” or ABC Family’s “Secret Life of the American Teenager” and “Kyle XY”. And the crime procedural fans will reject that 10 hours of programming to watch TNT’s “The Closer”, slated to return in January in the 9-10 pm slot.

You see, Jeff, to me, it makes no sense that you would allow the new Leno talk variety show to block NBC from putting any scripted shows in from 10-11 pm. After all, compared to the competition outlined above from 8-10 pm, why would you not want to try a scripted show against CBS “CSI: Miami”, ABC “True Beauty” and TNT “Trust Me.” Why would you keep NBC’s scripted shows where they can’t possibly get any ratings - the 8-10 pm slots.

How about Tuesday 8-10 pm, Jeff? Fox, of course, has that little cult show called “American Idol” which will be followed by “Fringe”. CBS has those time slot almost thrown away with sweeps winners “NCIS” and “The Mentalist” And ABC is practically giving up with their new “Homeland Security USA” docucopsoap and that worthless show you cancelled, “Scrubs”. And The CW is always a pushover with such fluff as “90210" and “Privileged” (the latter to be replaced by “Reaper” in March).

I guess it make sense to you that the new Leno talk variety show would block NBC from putting any scripted shows in from 10-11 pm. What? Someone told you that no one would want to try a scripted show against CBS “Without a Trace” and ABC’s struggling/cancelled “Eli Stone”. After all, you would also be facing TNT’s “Leverage” and FX “Nip/Tuck” which apparently might pull in 8 million viewers? Otherwise, why would you schedule Leno there instead of a good scripted show.

The rest of the week 8-10 pm is, of course, similarly structured with your competition scheduling what you must think are their weak shows. Yep, you wouldn’t want to schedule something other than Leno against those Thursday 10 pm heavyweights like “Private Practice” and “Eleventh Hour”, when you can put your scripted shows against “Grey’s Anatomy” and “CSI”. And you can put one of your scripted shows not only against them Thursday, but also against “Burn Notice” which is on some cable network - USA, ever heard of it? NBCU owns it. Why would you have Leno on at 10 pm so you have no choice but to screw two of your properties, NBC and USA.

I know, I know. Advertisers are already cheering you, so you’ll be a hero at GE for a couple of more quarters. The ad buyers think Leno is more DVR proof. They, of course, don’t know that in our home we DVR both Leno and Letterman every night, to be watched the following day skipping all those (and I mean “all” those) commercials and the many segments of show we don’t want to watch. The ad buyers must think we’re not representative of the future of television. Unlike us, they think other people are getting DVR’s just so they can watch Leno’s commercials live and the repeat them a few times. Have you sold the 9 pm Sunday slot to these same morons?

In December 2007 I wrote here: “Yes, that ad supported NBC channel you watch now may degenerate into only news, sports, and televaudeville.” But Jeff, I really didn’t think you would actually try to do that.

Then again, you probably realize it doesn’t matter. You probably know the schedule for January already contains 60 hours a week of scripted programming in prime time without NBC. And half of it is good, without NBC.

I could get along without NBC. But I have a fondness for the network that dates back to the 1950's when my uncle was a producer for NBC programming. And I have a focus on scripted programming. So don’t let the GE corporate view completely destroy NBC as a source of scripted programming.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Is Alan Rosenberg America’s Last Norma Rae?

Hollywood produces drama. But the geographic Hollywood may become the stage for a showdown representing the end to an old dynamic that balanced the interests of workers against the power of huge corporations.

From an historical standpoint, it's going to be a riveting drama. But from the standpoint of a long-time (56 years) American TV viewer who loves scripted TV, it's depressing. It is the logical real world outcome of shifts in organizational theory, the collapse of the international labor movement, and the simultaneous rise of the international corporate economy in the last half of the 20th Century. Within that larger framework, a scenario has evolved with its tensions and real characters.

The protagonist is Screen Actors Guild (SAG) President Alan Rosenberg. He's had years of significant roles in TV and movies. He's been a political militant all his life. During the 'radical' 60s, Rosenberg became a member of the Black Panthers and was an active protestor of the Vietnam War. He's from a show business family and is married to actress Marg Helgenberger.

Rosenberg may be an anachronism within the current American labor climate in that he strongly believes labor should get a larger piece of the pie than it has over the last three decades and it is worth a major sacrifice to get it.

Flashback - Rosenberg describes to the crowd the crux of the drama’s conflict from his perspective: “Fair play doesn't pertain in bargaining. What matters there is leverage. Here (pointing to the crowd) is the leverage. Our leverage is that we're the product. We took a bad deal for cable 25 years ago. We took a horrible deal for VHS 20 years ago. We won't be fooled again.”

While most of SAG’s 120,000 members are probably sympathetic to the idea they've been screwed for 30 years, most also are typical of Americans - up to their ears in debt and not willing to sacrifice their cars and homes for principles. My guess is that Rosenberg and Helgenberger were not one of those couples whose lifestyle is in serious financial jeopardy because of last year’s writers strike. The dramatic dilemma for Rosenberg is that he has no real leverage unless he can get a “strike vote” from 75% of the SAG membership.

Our drama has two principal antagonists. The first is Jeff Zucker. In 2005 Zucker was promoted to Chief Executive Officer of NBC Universal Television Group behind Bob Wright, vice chairman of General Electric and chairman & CEO of NBC Universal. On February 6, 2007, to the position of president & CEO of NBC Universal (NBCU), replacing Wright.

Zucker is the perfect historical antagonist to Rosenberg. He is the son of a cardiologist, was captain of his high school tennis team, a Harvard graduate who majored in history and was President of the Harvard Crimson, who was hired by NBC in 1988 to research material for its coverage of the 1988 Seoul Olympics. From there he became the Executive Producer of the Today Show at age 26 and has continued to rise in the NBCU organization.

In contrast to the relatively small SAG organization, NBCU is a subsidiary of General Electric Company (GE), the world’s third largest multinational conglomerate considered by many to be the most successful conglomerate. Despite the recent economic collapse, on October 10, 2008 Zucker’s boss, GE Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt, reported that third quarter revenues from continuing operations were $47.2 billion, up 11%. “Our infrastructure and media businesses continued to see signs of strength,” Immelt explained. “NBC Universal grew segment profit 10%, its eighth straight quarter of growth.”

GE’s financial subsidiary, GE Capital, did report problems related to the general economy. But there is no real need for the American taxpayer to worry about this subsidiary of the world’s third largest conglomerate. On November 12, 2008, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation approved GE Capital as an eligible entity under the FDIC's Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, under which the FDIC guarantees GE Capital's senior unsecured debt.

Yes, Zucker, as the outwardly congenial “company man” fronting for an impersonal international conglomerate, is the perfect antagonist to Rosenberg. Early this year, Zucker addressed the perennial question about whether General Electric was thinking about selling NBC. "As things have improved with NBC Universal and NBC prime time, those questions have subsided. It's all about performance. If we perform, the question goes away. If we don't perform, they should sell us."

But there is a second antagonist. Rupert Murdoch is described as an Australian-American global media mogul. He is the major shareholder, chairman and managing director of News Corporation (News Corp) which owns all the various Fox media brands. Murdoch's father was a powerful Australian newspaper proprietor and his mother the daughter of a wealthy Irish family. After attending Oxford, Murdoch became managing director of News Limited in 1953. From those not very humble beginnings, Murdoch built News Corp, a holding company which is the world's largest media conglomerate. According to the 2008 Forbes 400, Murdoch is the 109th-richest person in the world, with a net worth of $8.3 billion.

If one might doubt that Rosenberg family struggled much financially during the writers strike, one might be tempted to think Murdoch didn’t know the strike was going on. One would be wrong because, unlike Zucker, for Murdoch everything that affects his business empire is very personal. And very much like Rosenberg, Murdoch understands that everything he does is political.

The nature of the battle between the media congloms versus organized labor during the past 18 months is clear. Much like the financial institutions that recently collapsed, the congloms don’t care about the public, the workers, or the shareholders. The attitudes of management reflect an ego oriented self-assured manipulative aggression. And they are good at it as they control significant elements of the flow of information around the world.

The Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers (AMPTP) representing Zucker and Murdoch clearly had a plan to crush the creative guilds built around all the flaws the membership of the guilds themselves created.

Unlike the AMPTP which is made up of the dominating conglomerates plus others, the guilds are made up of squabbling creative egos. The struggles within the WGA and SAG make them look like the Italian Parliament, unable to suppress “healthy” dissent long enough to create a healthy being. To get the two guilds to work in unison against AMPTP would be, at best, a daydream for a serious labor organizer.

So, AMPTP was given many gifts by the workers. To begin with, the labor contracts didn’t all expire at the same time. So the WGA contract expired October 31, 2007. Talks began on July 13, 2007 with AMPTP making the following ultimatum as reported by Variety :

"As for the proposals, the AMPTP beat the guild by several hours in disclosing its official demands. The companies told WGA members they have two choices:

"1. Maintain the status quo via a three-year contract that provides for a study centered on revamping compensation in order to figure out how to pay writers from revenues from the plethora of new-media platforms. Agreeing to the study would keep the current residuals system in place with increases in salary minimums to be negotiated.

"2. If there's no study on revamping compensation, the companies will play hardball and demand a four-year deal that will institute a recoupment-based residuals system -- meaning that writers receive residuals only after companies have made back their basic costs of development, production and marketing."

In other words, the proposal from the congloms was “you agree to give us the content you create over the next three years and we will study how to compensate you for our use of it.” And at no point in time prior to the beginning of the strike November 3, 2007 did the congloms improve that offer.

As I wrote in December, it was obvious that AMPTP was bargaining in bad faith in order to force the WGA to strike which created a de facto lockout of other workers including SAG members.

Among those locked out were directors who, though directors are clearly middle management, belong to a guild of their own - the Directors Guild of America (DGA). The AMPTP intended to use locking out its middle management personnel in the DGA to manipulate the course of events. Naturally, the AMPTP was very successful. By the middle of December, the DGA announced it was going to negotiate with AMPTP on its contract which wasn’t due to expire until June 2008.

And indeed, after “highly productive” informal talks, the DGA and AMPTP met January 12, 2008, and wrapped up a deal six days later. It didn’t take much for middle-management and management to agree on a deal.

This ramped up the pressure on the WGA. And there already was pressure. WGA members were complaining. Craft and Teamsters union members were hostile. The public was hostile. Even within SAG which was facing its own contract expiration in June, actors were divided. So much for a united front from labor. The congloms had won.

Or had they?

Sure, a WGA contract “modeled” on the DGA contract came soon after January. But Alan Rosenberg refused to accept this model, despite it being embraced by SAG’s competitor AFTRA. He just waited right up through, and well beyond, the expiration of the existing contract in June, explaining it was a bad contract for creative workers.

Even after his own membership elected new Board members to get things moving, he held his ground. And the new Board members, not wishing to be seen as totally incompetent, gave him more time by asking for federal mediation.

Just one day before the first mediated meeting between AMPTP and SAG, WGA members finally figured out they were screwed in the new contract. From Variety:

"In a move echoing the bitter disputes surrounding the 100-day WGA strike, the Writers Guild of America West has accused the conglomerates of failing to comply with the guild's 8-month-old contract.

"The move elicited a sharp denial by the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers, which asserted that the WGA has misinterpreted the terms of the deal that ended the strike by wrongly asserting that it covers projects prior to start of the agreement.

"The WGA announced Wednesday that it has filed for arbitration over alleged nonpayment of new-media residuals for programs sold as electronic downloads, also known as electronic sell-through (EST). WGA West board member John Bowman, who headed the guild's negotiating committee, said the contract with the companies on electronic sell-through covers feature films produced after July 1, 1971, and TV programs produced after 1977.

"'The companies have reneged on this agreement and are taking the position that only programs produced after Feb. 13, 2008, are covered by the new provision,' he added. 'This may be their deal with the DGA, but that was never our agreement. Every proposal we made during negotiations made clear our position that library product was covered, and the AMPTP never objected to that position. The guild will not allow this to stand.'

"The AMPTP shot back that the WGA is mistaken about how the new-media residuals apply."

And so the mediated talks between an unbending AMPTP and SAG failed when Rosenberg presented this news of bad faith bargaining by AMPTP. And Rosenberg can now ask SAG members to consider authorizing a strike.

Zucker, Murdoch, and their fellow conglomerate CEO’s are willing to bet Rosenberg can’t persuade 75% of the SAG voting membership to approve a strike. If they are right, they will have effectively broken organized labor in the media industry. If they are wrong, the next question will be: "Will the congloms risk a strike?"

Maybe Rosenberg can pull off a “Norma Rae” win saving what little bit of influence labor has in this country. It will be a true “Hollywood drama” with consequences for the rest of us. Sure, the potential consequences include disrupting our TV. But the consequences potentially include American labor giving up on more than a century of workers seeking a fair and equitable share of the American dream.

I rooted for a fictional "Norma Rae" and now I'm rooting in real life for Alan Rosenberg. And I'll donate to a strike fund for all the affected media workers if it comes to that.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Actors' Strike: Yes or No, How Would You Vote?

One has to give Screen Actors Guild (SAG) President Alan Rosenberg credit for a certain "put one foot in front of the other" tenaciousness. In fact, his march forward in the face of internal partisan challenges within his own union and from the rest of the union movement and tough external opposition is not dissimilar to the Obama campaign. Just keep explaining until your constituency “gets it.”

In a fortuitous confluence of events, Thursday Rosenberg was able to bring to the bargaining table a copy of a Writers Guild of America (WGA) request for arbitration about the very subject Rosenberg has been arguing. The WGA just now discovered they screwed up (again) when eight months ago they signed an agreement with the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers (AMPTP) following the Directors Guild of America settlement. As Rosenberg kept pointing out, the DGA/WGA contract provisions for new media residuals were flawed.

It’s easy to understand what’s happening. If you buy on a DVD a movie released prior to February 13, 2008, the screen writers get paid pursuant to the 2008 contract. If you buy the same movie as a download, the screen writers do not get paid. Apparently, this is the formula that applies to the director (and to the actors under the AFTRA contract), and it’s the formula AMPTP wants SAG to accept.

New media issues are where Rosenberg drew a line in the sand and started his long march towards a strike vote.

It is not complicated at all. If a pre-2008 movie or television show owned by General Electric Corporation (all the NBC Universal related studios) or News Corp (all the Fox related studios) in 2010 is being purchased mostly as an on line download, the corporation gets the money that historically would go to writers, directors, and actors. It’s a big and unjustified win for GE and News Corp.

In one news report we see the following:

“WGA West board member John Bowman, who headed the guild's negotiating committee, said the contract with the companies on electronic sell-through covers feature films produced after July 1, 1971, and TV programs produced after 1977.

"’The companies have reneged on this agreement and are taking the position that only programs produced after Feb. 13, 2008, are covered by the new provision,’ he added. ‘This may be their deal with the DGA, but that was never our agreement. Every proposal we made during negotiations made clear our position that library product was covered, and the AMPTP never objected to that position. The guild will not allow this to stand.’"

It has been hard to understand the overall situation as an industry outsider. I try to understand it based upon my experience with the media conglomerates as a buyer of electronic music media. So far, in our household we’ve been screwed out of the licenses for about 150 tracks of music during the period the conglomerates showed total disregard for the rights of their paying music customers. In the end, of course, they lost and unlicensed mp3 downloads are the norm. It was hard for them to sue the thousands and thousands customers who told them that their contract (license) sucked and proceeded to share music. But I’m still out about 150 licenses I paid for and certainly Sony doesn’t care.

Unfortunately, those who actually create the art, be it in music or movies or TV shows, are not in a position to protect their financial interest except through contracts with the conglomerates. And the last time, the writers and actors felt they got screwed in their contract provisions for DVD revenue.

This time around the writers, who went out on strike trying to protect their interests, were again screwed by AMPTP. But they were also screwed by their fellow workers and themselves. I guess that is because some members of these “guilds” don’t like to think of themselves as belonging to a union, so the writers and apparently a lot of actors don’t get the fact that the directors are not workers, they’re middle management who have a whole different set of interests and frequently do not depend on “union scale” set in the guild contract.

When, in the middle of the writers strike, the DGA started negotiations early and settled on a contract, the DGA - “middle management” - essentially sold out the creative workers and caused unprecedented pressure on the WGA to settle.

The rank and file of the Hollywood union movement failed to back the writers. After being out of work for several months and under pressure from some GE subsidiary for payments on debt, they wanted the writers to settle with GE so GE could make a lot more money on the backs of the workers.

While SAG members did walk around on sidewalks with picket signs supporting the writers, many still continued to work finishing movies and episodes of TV shows that had already been written. Yep, real solidarity there.

And there was really little Rosenberg could do as his own members owed money to GE Capital and they weren’t about to risk anything more than they absolutely had too. No “workers of the world unite” spirit there.

Now, of course, we’ll see what happens. This WGA dispute reminds one of the United Auto Workers situation in Detroit. It’s older writers and actors whose income depends on the residuals for films and TV series released before 2008. Just like it’s the UAW retirees who are frequently characterized as the burden on the U.S. auto industry.

If we could just dump these stupid unions and euthanize everyone over 55, our country wouldn’t be a drag on the international corporations. And the rest of us could watch movies and TV in total happiness.

Gee Rosenberg, as the writers struggled last year, the directors “got it”, the Teamsters and other trade union members “got it”, and finally the writers “got it” along with the AFTRA actors. Why don’t you “get it”? Even the majority of SAG members want to be reduced to WalMart class compensation. Or do they? We’ll see.

The rest of you. How would you vote regarding a strike authorization?

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The K-Mart of Television Signal Providers

A recent lengthy commentary in The Hollywood Reporter is perpetuating an impression created by financial analysts regarding Dish Network, the satellite TV signal provider.

It doesn't delve into the problems created by the EchoStar Communications Corporation split this year, or even indicate an awareness of the balance sheet differences between November 2007 EchoStar Communications Corporation and November 2008 Dish Network, differences which are like night and day.

It does identify a truth that should dominate the rest of the analysis of the company. It's "Charlie Ergen's company."

When Charlie was a 30-something, he started EchoStar. When Charlie was 40-something he got EchoStar DBS going.

Charlie will be 56 in March. The now "Old Charlie" still may be a tenacious techie dreamer. Probably he has a really good idea for that 700MHz spectrum Dish Network is on the hook for. But finding what amounts to startup money in 2009 to do anything with that spectrum isn't going to be improbable, it's going to be all but impossible. And I believe Charlie's heart is with the new Echostar, the one that owns Slingbox and makes the ViP receiver/recorder boxes. That Charlie isn't the logical 21st Century mentor of the new Dish Network.

The new Dish Network is a retail service operation. Like WalMart, it demands clever marketing while renegotiating contracts with its suppliers, the various media companies and local channel owners. But that's also where the WalMart analogy completely breaks down. Acquiring those television signals can't be outsourced to producers in third world countries so Dish's prices can be kept low and still maintain a meaningful profit margin. The analogy to WalMart is flawed.

DirecTV and the new Dish Network compete against established cable and telecom companies that offer at least three products: (1) television signals, (2) internet connections, and (3) telephone service.

All these television signal providers are now selling insert advertising. On the other hand, Dish Network's sibling EchoStar designs and sells boxes designed to skip advertising while Dish Network needs to get a cash flow stream going from those ads.

DirecTV has already hedged it's hardware bets by repartnering with TiVo which is run by a former NBC executive and is already working to help advertisers get through to commercial skipping viewers (see this article). DirecTV has a cousin's relationship with media producers and has already put it's toe in the media production market. And in 2007-2008 it committed huge sums to the only real product it has to sell - TV signals - and huge sums to market to new customers during the runup to a major change in it's product from analog SD TV to digital HD TV.

Yes, EchoStar Communications Corporation offered HD early, developing really cool hardware and offering pioneering HD signals from HDNet and VOOM, much like a 20-something techie fiddling in the garage, definitely not like a 50-something marketing veteran laying out a 5-year plan for dominating a market. Then, just as it started losing the HD retail market advantage, EchoStar Communications Corporation split itself in two in what appeared for all intents and purposes to be a maneuver by Charlie to sell it's retail service component, Dish Network, and keep the garage, Echostar. That didn't work because nobody bought Dish Network before the economic meltdown.

In fact today Dish Network superficially looks like the WalMart of television signal providers. But the analysts' analogy is wrong. Dish Network has no real control of the cost of it's product and most certainly has no control over the content in its product. The advantage has gone to its competitor who recognized the truth about its mature product - TV channels. What appeared to be a somewhat expensive contract for a "cable" channel signal was, in fact, all DirecTV had to market. To DirecTV it wasn't foolishly signing too expensive contracts for signals, it was investing in the future, it fit into a logical market plan. Charlie is still holding out for bargain basement prices.

In the meantime, 50-something-Charlie's Echostar decided to make cool DVR boxes for OTA television viewers. These viewers, so far in the 40 years of "cable" channel existence, have had no need for "cable" channels and, apparently, wouldn't spend the money on a TiVo. And irony of ironies, Charlie has Dish Network dealing with the retail problems of these boxes which likely will alienate many who will ultimately switch to a signal provider, most likely an uncomplicated one which would either be cable or telecom company.

The only good advice in that article is this: "So, revisit Dish shares next year. Your Wal-Mart shares have served you better in 2008; those are down only a few bucks in the past six months and up year-to-date."

Yes, let's see what the new Dish Network without the new EchoStar looks like next November. Maybe Old Charlie really does have his finger on the door-to-door retail television signal service market.

Heck, I'm already "invested" heavily just as a customer of this company I think is analogous to the 1999 K-Mart. I'm eagerly awaiting its February "Blue Light Specials" (annual package and pricing changes) and wondering if it will ultimately need its "Sears Holding."

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Rita does rock!

Under normal circumstances, I'm reluctant to recommend 30-minute sitcoms because people's sense of humor differ significantly. But "Rita Rocks" which started last week on Lifetime is a pretty good new family sitcom - some clever lines and good actors. Like all sitcoms at the start, it's a little bit uneven but it is well done.

Lifetime is repeating all six previous episodes next week. If you like family comedy, give it a try. I think you'll like it.

The plot summary:
A woman who is nearing 40 works in a "Bed, Bath and Beyond" type of store starts a garage band with her neighbor, her mail carrier, and her teenage daughter's boyfriend, while her husband picks up some of the chores.

The adult regulars in the cast are familiar faces, including:

Rita (the lead character) - Nicole Sullivan (The King of Queens, Kim Possible, many others)

Patty (the mail carrier) - Tisha Campbell-Martin (My Wife and Kids, many others)

Jay (the husband) - Richard Ruccolo (you'll recognize him)

Owen (the unemployed neighbor) - Ian Gomez (Drew Carey, Jake in Progress, many others)

Thursday, October 30, 2008

I too am a Seeker

A two hour premier of the new series "Legend of the Seeker" will occur Saturday. Reviews have been...ah...mixed? But it is the pilot and we all know pilots today have to be crammed with everything. Typical are these comments from Variety:

"The producing team of Sam Raimi and Robert Tapert enjoyed considerable success a few years back with "Hercules" and "Xena,"....

"...There's nothing howlingly bad here (except perhaps for a few of the supporting performances), but nothing particularly distinctive, either. Rather, "Legend of the Seeker" feels like a hodgepodge of better sci-fi/fantasy fare, including slow-motion action sequences that looked way-cool in "300" and this time around merely feel like a cheap way of ensuring nobody gets clipped by an errant sword.

"Disney is producing and distributing the 22-episode order, which in light of the show's youth-oriented qualities could easily have played on one of the studio's cable platforms. Thus exploring the wilds of firstrun syndication is probably the most daring aspect of "Seeker's" familiar quest."


But I'm a great deal less jaded than many reviewers and feel more like these comments in TV Squad:

"Wow, "syndicated adventure series." Whatever happened to all of those cheesy syndicated adventure shows that used to dot the television landscape?...There aren't too many of them anymore, replaced by reality, home improvement, court shows, and talk shows, or not replaced at all.

"...It sounds silly and over the top and Legend of the Seeker is a horrible title (unless you're making a kids video game or a follow-up to the self-help book The Secret), but this could actually be a lot of fun...."


Personally, I like traditional fantasy over reality TV which is not only fantasy but frequently a depressing attempt to provide escapist entertainment. I prefer evil wizards to Donald Trump.

Because it's syndicated, it is offered on an independent or affiliated channel in each area of the country, though not in all DMA's. And, of course, it may not be available from your local channel in HD. But do not despair as it is offered nationally on WGN starting at 5 pm EDT (also see schedules for KTLA and WPIX). It will be repeated on Sunday.

The show has an official web site where you can put in your Zip Code to find out which local channel it is on. There is also a 10-minute preview video that was presented earlier this month on a 30-minute special hosted by Lucy Lawless (apparently the special is available from iTunes). An unofficial web site is also up and running.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

The Hilarious Video on The Absurdity of the Digital Conversion

A truly hilarious video from "Talkshow with Spike Fereston" is making the rounds on the internet.

You need to watch the video before any of this post makes sense. With that said, here it goes folks.

The video demonstrates how truly stupid the February 2009 digital "cutoff" is, a government mandated technological change that will have the most negative effect on the most vulnerable - mostly poor and dependent people.

There is no logical reason not to continue analog TV broadcasts for another five years while people discover that another choice for broadcast TV has been developing and actually represents something desirable. The cutoff is a move by the covetous, enabled by a bunch of mostly old men in Congress several years ago who either (1) really don't care much about what happens in the day-to-day lives of mostly poor and dependent people or (2) are just too dumb to see the big picture.

The video clearly presents the absurdity of the policy. Yeah, there are phone numbers in addition to web sites, and government coupons that are confusing and don't cover help with installation, and boxes that may or may not work in your location. None of that resolves the fundamental flaws in the policy.

Many are going to be surprised. No one took their "land lines" away from them before they began to appreciate the value of the cell phone, and most still have land lines. Before this video, I never saw anything in the new, spiffy media that truly addressed the impact of this change.

Unfortunately, some have gotten hung up because the video using humor portrays the difficulty affecting a member of the population that will have the most members struggling - old people, people my age.

Some have taken offense that the character is portrayed as an "elderly, almost senile woman." Senile. The term is applied to older people and it means a deterioration, an illness, which as we age we all fear more or less.

In fact, a better term has entered the lexicon more recently to describe what is depicted in the video: "clueless", which means "Lacking understanding or knowledge." (Dictionary.com). The problem is "clueless" behavior at any age resembles to some degree "senility." It's just that old people get tagged with "senility" when they are just "clueless", which is ageism and is as disturbing as overt racism, sexism, etc.

In this case, an older person was used because a greater percentage of people over 60 are "technologically challenged" than in other age groups. Don't let your internal "politically correct" alarm stand in the way of understanding the basic message of the video. The person portrayed in the video is not senile, just clueless, and it has nothing to do with ageism.

The February 2009 analog TV cutoff will affect people of all ages most of whom are among the least able to cope with the change and who are most dependent on broadcast TV. And this humorous video brings that truth out of the closet.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

A Weirdly Misplaced Quality Show - Easy Money

Newly misplaced. One TV show. Surprisingly mature plot, clever writing, with solid direction and acting, Last seen in the vicinity of The CW on Sunday, lost in the noise. If found, call HBO or AMC. Answers to the name of Easy Money.

Easy Money is a show that is as well produced and as offbeat HBO's Big Love, AMC's Mad Men, and Fx's The Riches. The only problem is that it debuted in October on Sunday at 9:00 pm on, get this, The CW.

Media Rights Capital (MRC) bought The CW's fall Sunday night prime time. At 7:00 pm they scheduled In Harms Way, a reality series from Dirtiest Jobs' Craig Piligian that features people with dangerous jobs in places like subway tunnels, avalanches, and hurricanes. Not being a reality TV fan, I can't tell you anything about this show. At 8:00 pm they offer Valentine Inc., a truly vacuous show about the Valentine family, a group of Greek gods living in today's Southern California attempting to keep their true identities secret as they do whatever it takes to bring soulmates together, including hiring a romance novel writer who is supposed to help them.

But at 9:00 pm is this incredibly misplaced quality show about a family that runs "Prestige Payday Loans", one of those strip mall check cashing storefronts, and making a fine living at it. The Buffkin's matriarch is Bobette, played by Laurie Metcalf. Morgan Buffkin, her son played by Jeff Hephner (The OC), helps keep the business and family together. The only problem is he's morally troubled by the nature of the business and he inadvertently discovers he may not be her biological son nor sibling to brother Cooper played by Jay R. Ferguson or sister Brandy played by Katie Lowes. You'll recognize the rest of cast as all top actors, also.

Supposedly MRC is committed to 13 episodes of Easy Money (and Valentine, Inc.). However, they have put the shows on 4- to 6-week hiatus supposed to give the writers time to catch up on scripts.

In fact, MRC should find a couple more reality shows to fill the time slots which were in the past, and are today, total losers for The CW. They should dump Valentine, Inc., and shop Easy Money around to the cable channels. Easy Money should have been on HBO. It's that good!

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Eleventh Hour v Life on Mars - Brit Adaptations Skirmish

Two shows from British television premiered against each other Thursday night - Eleventh Hour and Life on Mars. We weren't impressed with Life on Mars in our household but more on that later.

Eleventh Hour, on the other hand, was better than the Brit version.

The surprise was how much better we liked Rufus Sewell as Dr. Jacob Hood than we did Patrick Stewart and how ok we were with Marley Shelton in the Rachel Young part played in the Brit version by Ashley Jensen (Christina in Ugly Betty).

Sewell really made the Hood part his own with greater force of personality than Stewart.

We hadn't expected the American version pilot to be the same plot as the Brit first episode. The two scripts had the same basic plot outline. The Brit version from Granada Television ran 90 minutes on ITV which did give more time to develop the plot and characters.

But apparently some kind of "artistic differences" at the producer level caused plot changes in subsequent episodes and the Brit version only had four episodes. I hope we will have four seasons and fully realize the show's potential.

Then there's Life on Mars. We watched the English show on BBCA. I loved it, my wife was ambivalent about it. We both did not like the American pilot. The show in this episode was just too much like the Brit version. Whatever else, there were significant cultural differences between 1973 England and 1973 America.

Harvey Keitel was fine (what else?). Jason O'Mara is an actor we like, but and O'Mara is playing Sam too much like John Simm did.

And Gretchen Mol just looks too 21st Century. Liz White in the English version looked and "felt" like a slightly above average young English woman in 1973 struggling to find a place in law enforcement. Mol looks like a 2008 hottie dressed up for a Halloween Party as a 1973 NYPD police woman.

And here we go again with post 90's American TV pilots squeezing it all in to grab every viewer. In the British version it took a few episodes before Sam even chats with Annie about his secret and his thoughts on what it means. They had no need to develop a male-female intimacy in the first hour because they weren't going to cancel the show if the female 18-39 demo wasn't impressed.

So in the American version we have the new guy, lost, confused and uneasy, just tell some woman in the station: "Hey, I think either I've traveled back in time, this is all a dream, or I'm nuts. Now take me home then let's go solve crimes with our guns and stuff." But hey, she has a degree in psychology. Yeah, maybe, if her degree was in parapsychology, maybe.

The premise of the show isn't bad - how does a 2008 top investigator used to all the 21st Century rules and csi gadgets and criminal databases function in a 1973 police environment? Opportunities for tension and struggle abound.

We will try a few more episodes. But I have my doubts.

Life

One show carried over from the disaster of last year is extremely well written, has stimulating characters played by strong actors, and is directed with great care. Unfortunately it's on NBC.

The show is Life. Yes, on the surface it's just another police procedural. But it also has a backstory that drives a subplot that is actually moving towards early resolution, not something to keep up ad nauseum as in so many shows.

They did change a supporting character this year and it's a good change.

The show was "given a chance" by NBC airing new episodes on Monday night the past two weeks as well as on its regular time of 10 pm Friday.

I'm hoping that they scheduled it on Friday because it's a less expensive show to produce. And because of that, they might consider shifting it to USA where characters are welcome? Life has some great characters.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

ESPN and The Secret Life of an American Teenager

It's official now, because the Nielsen's confirm it. Broadcast TV and cable channels are competing equally for the same prime-time audience. And the Monday night competition clearly presents the picture. But before I deal with this Fall's Monday lineup, let me offer this "startling" fact that recently came to light.

The Tuesday mid-season finale of ABC Family’s "The Secret Life of an American Teenager" beat every show aired by ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC and the CW among 18-34 women and 12-34 year old women, and this includes the second week of The CW's "90210". In fact, it beat "90210" by double and triple digit percentages. "Secret Life" was watched by 4.5 million total viewers, "90210" by 3.2 million. Of course, Fox's premier of "Fringe" drew 9 million viewers. But "The Secret Life of an American Teenager" wasn't even on most media experts radar late last spring.

I wanted to know which among the hot industry media covered will be 2008's biggest TV industry news story, "The Secret Life of an American Teenager"? A Google News archive search turns up not one story before June. A search on Fox's "Fringe" turned up about 195 stories. (I probably didn't do the search right.)

Take it from this old guy, "The Secret Life of an American Teenager" is a good show particularly considering its target audience. It has strong character development, talented actors, effective direction, and is topical - the central character is a pregnant teen in a middle-class home. Look out broadcast TV, because it'll be back in January.

Now about Monday night....

This past Monday in the 8 pm time slot, the second-season premiere of "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles" drew 6.3 million viewers, NBC's "Deal or No Deal" 9.6 million, the CW's "Gossip Girl" 3.1 million and so on. Oh but when the broadcast numbers were totaled, there were 12.5 million viewers missing. They were watching the Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings game on ESPN. Yeah, that's right, cable's ESPN drew in the most viewers.

Here's the wrinkle as we approach the last week in September. As usual, and for reasons this writer cannot fathom, the broadcast networks have a huge investment in Monday night competition. At 8 pm we'll have to choose from Fox's "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles", NBC's "Chuck", ABC's "Dancing with the Stars", CBS's "The Big Bang Theory" and "How I Met Your Mother", The CW's "Gossip Girl", or we could and apparently will, watch ESPN's "Monday Night Football."

In the 10 pm slot, in addition to the ABC, CBS, and NBC fare, TNT has added to that mix Steven Bochco's "Raising the Bar" which drew 7.7 million viewers in its premier.

Of course, because the industry media, like the government, is still in 1958 instead of 2008, we still see dutifully reported the Nielsen's overnight's for broadcast TV as if it was a meaningful picture of what's going on. In fact, the declining broadcast TV viewership is part of a bigger picture which the industry needs to see.

For all intents and purposes, The CW's Tuesday lineup of "90210" and "Privileged" next week will be in competition with ABC Family's "Lincoln Heights" and "Greek", not with Fox's "House" and "Fringe".

And the Tuesday 10 pm lineup, CBS's "Without a Trace", ABC's "Eli Stone", and NBC's "Law & Order: SVU", isn't fairly reported without the numbers on FX's "The Shield".

In other words, the viewers have discovered that ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC, and The CW are just five channels among 20+ meaningful nationwide programming choices, not the hundreds of local channels rapidly abandoning their last local obligation (and only viewer attraction), local news.

Fringe - It's not about "what's out there", it's about us

It's been a long time since both my wife and I have been enthused about a show's potential after watching the pilot. But "Fringe" is that show.

Yes, the show is about a mysterious conspiracy and has been compared to the X-Files. But it isn't about aliens, it is about science; particularly the odd weapons research conducted in the 1950's and 1960's and 1970's and...run amuck. Think Fort Detrick, Md., anthrax research scientist Bruce E. Ivins, but add in the fuzzy Homeland Security legal authority (oh yeah, like in the Ivins case), a super-sized ultra secret version of President Eisenhower's military-industrial complex (much like we actually have, hmmmm), a 1950's genius researcher locked up in a psychiatric unit after an accidental explosion, and so on.

Let's begin the pilot with Mulder and Scully declaring they are in love with each other and end the pilot with Mulder maybe "undead" and maybe working for "them."

Nope, that's not "The X-Files". It's better. It's us, now, with electronics for mind melds and no Spock.

Australian Anna Torv plays FBI Agent Olivia Dunham and if her performance in the pilot is any indication, she is a first class actor. We're really looking forward to watching her in upcoming episodes.

Desert Storm veteran Mark Valley, ("Boston Legal", "Swingtown") is the perfect choice to play her partner Agent John Scott. He plays the well-educated hunk perfectly. But this is more than a slightly different role the Mulder which bring us to....

Canadian born Joshua Jackson ("Dawson's Creek") as Peter Bishop, the disaffected genius con man who is conned by Dunham to help save her partner. To do that, Peter Bishop is her only access to his estranged hospitalized father....

Veteran Australian born (is there a pattern here?) actor John Noble plays Dr. Walter Bishop with his usual strong acting.

This team is managed by Homeland Security Agent Phillip Broyles ably portrayed by Lance Reddick ("The Wire") as an angry, focused investigative supervisor who already has a hate on for Dunham. Gee, Reddick is an American actor.

Rounding out this cast is veteran Blair Brown playing Nina Sharp, a cancer survivor with a creepy artificial limb and a corporate face that in no way resembles Molly Dodd.

Like all pilot's there were some weaknesses and inconsistencies. Why did she sit on the back bumper of the ambulance and snivel instead of securing the body? She knew they could talk to the dead. Oh, alright, it was critical to the show's plot.

Now if Fox were smart, they would move "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles" to the Tuesday 9 p.m slot and let NBC's "Heroes" struggle with ABC's "Dancing with the Stars" and ESPN's "NFL Monday Night Football". They'd end up owning Tuesday night.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Convention coverage with no talking empty heads

It's hard to imagine, being able to watch on television important political speeches without a couple of talking heads telling me before the speech what the speech should and should not include, why the speaker will or won't succeed, and what he or she did for lunch.

Then immediately after the speech, not having additional talking heads tell me what the speech did and/or did not accomplish, what was right or wrong about the speaker's dress or smile, etc.

Dish Network allowed me to try using my own brain to receive and analyze speeches at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and is going to allow me the same opportunity for the Republican National Convention (RNC).

Dish has, in both high definition and standard definition, dedicated a channel to gavel to gavel audio and video of the conventions, without commentary.

The DNC without the talking empty heads providing "color" was pure enjoyment. I recorded it, of course, so I could skip the dead air times.

It did stretch my brain a little, having to consider the candidates' words with only the context I could provide. And I had to measure the sincerity using only my judgment.

But it was an enlightening experience. I also recorded some broadcast and cable network coverage. After watching that, I knew exactly why I refer to them as talking "empty" heads.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

To Congress: Let the TV stations free!

"I think the broadcast television universe has kind of, on a certain level, devolved, if you will," said Steven Bochco, in a recent interview in Forbes. "Additionally, the working environment in broadcast television has really shifted radically over the last half a dozen years or so."

In those few words Bochco described the malaise infecting the television industry everyone can see exists but no one seems to be attempting to cure. Perhaps it is because the cure is radical. So the American TV viewer may become the loser. It could happen as part of the digital TV "revolution."

The fact is broadcast television stations have been moribund for two decades. While one can always find examples of a quality documentary production offered somewhere around the United States, broadcast stations have a license for broadcasting 24/7, not 60 minutes every six months. If it weren't for content through seven networks - ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC, PBS, The CW and MyNetwork - it's highly likely that viewers within most of the 210 broadcast television Designated Market Areas (DMA's) would have nothing of quality or substance to watch from 6 pm to midnight.

To test this statement, take a look at what is offered in your "competitive" market on the "independent" stations. Then check out what's on the affiliated stations outside the network content show times. The Fox affiliates receive only two hours of network prime-time programming a night. Allowing for up to two hours for news related shows, that leaves two hours a night they use to offer what? Do you see 10 hours of smart, syndicated new programming? Local programming produced by groups comparable to local regional theater efforts?

In my area, the nightly lineup on the Fox affiliate looks like this:

6:00 pm News
6:30 pm Friends
7:00 pm Friends
7:30 pm Sienfeld
8:00 to 10:00 Network Programming
10:00 pm News
11:00 pm Seinfeld
11:30 pm Frasier

So, of course, what Congress did is give these folks the exclusive use of three more digital channels without reducing any of the guarantees and protections in place. What protections you may ask? There are many, but let me describe one of them.

Most viewers do not get their programming from the two main cable competitors, DirecTV and Dish Network. If they did get their service from satellites, sooner or later a logical question might cross their collective minds: "Why are the satellite TV companies expending huge sums of money to provide the bandwidth to carry local stations? Wouldn't it be better to provide for viewers to be offered an East and West feed for each of the networks like they do HBO and Showtime?"

At one time, one could get network stations from the East, from Denver, and from the West on satellite. But that came to a halt. Why? The answer is, of course, the broadcast TV lobby persuaded Congress that it was in the public interest to prevent any competition between affiliates of the same network. So Americans can no longer receive differing views of news from other regions of this huge nation.

The satellite TV situation is only one [i]symptom[/i] of the problem. The problem is that local broadcast stations are a 1950's structure created around limitations in technology at the time. They are as much as anachronism today as 1930's radio was when TV was allowed to replace it. It is now time to say goodbye to protected broadcast television stations.

"Wait a minute," you say. "Perhaps the stations in more rural areas and those owned by other than major media companies don't produce local content. But what about those in the major cities?"

There are 210 designated market areas. NBC owns outright seven stations, one of which is for sale, and is a 76% owner in two more. ABC owns 10 stations. CBS owns 14, Fox 18. They all own stations in New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Philadelphia. The original "Big Three" also own stations in San Francisco. NBC, the bellweather network, also owns a station in Dallas-Fort Worth as do CBS and Fox.

That's it. Six DMA's are worth the effort - New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Dallas-Fort Worth. And what an effort those locals put into providing local programming for their viewers.

On a typical week night between 5 pm and midnight on New York"s WNBC in addition to news and network programming, you get "Extra" and "Access Hollywood". WCBS gives you "Insider" and "Entertainment Tonight". WABC brings you "Jeopardy" and "Wheel of Fortune". WNYW Fox brings you "The Simpsons", "Seinfeld", and "TMZ" - [i]twice[/i]. These have to be potentially the most profitable stations in the country. Not one regularly schedules 30 minutes of locally produced programming on a typical week night between 5 pm and midnight other than news. This is the home of great theater. There is no shortage of proven talent. Why did these four stations receive three more channels each from the public in the digital switch? And why does the government protect to the point of giving them gifts?

And now the networks are adding insult to the injury of poor prime time programming. For instance, while expanding its TV series streaming presence on the web in direct competition with its affiliates (jointly with Fox in the case of HULU), NBC is cutting its losses by requiring its affiliate local stations to share their revenue by paying for network programming.

In summary, NBC owns the NBC broadcast stations in the largest local markets, they are competing with the affiliate local stations on the web, they are introducing new fees charged to non-owned affiliates, and they have the federal government protecting and expanding their monopolistic interest in this broadcast structure designed around 1950's technology.

If that isn't enough, for their affiliate broadcast station the networks are dumbing down programming to the cheapest and most easily controlled common denominator while experimenting on their various cable channels.

Steven Bochco's new show "Raising the Bar" will be on a cable channel, TNT. In case you've forgotten who Bochco is, here are examples of his credits:

Hill Street Blues (1981-87):
Creator (with Michael Kozoll)
Executive Producer
Writer (54 of 146 episodes)

Doogie Howser, M.D. (1989-93):
Creator (with David E. Kelley)
Executive Producer
Writer (51 of 97 episodes)

NYPD Blue (1993-2005):
Creator (with David Milch)
Executive Producer
Writer (260 of 261 episodes)

In addition, in this period he was creating, producing and/or writing numerous other series. In my opinion no one in the broadcast television industry has done more in the past 30 years to keep it a meaningful source of creative writing, acting, directing and production. Only David E. Kelley, who for example has writing credits in 112 of the 112 episodes of his "Ally McBeal", is a comparable contributor to the scripted TV industry.

This coming season these two have adapted to the slow death of broadcast TV in different ways. As noted earlier, Bochco has shifted to the cable channel environment. Kelley has attempted to continue live with the broadcast networks' desire for assured success without risk by adapting a successful British show, "Life on Mars", for ABC.

So it comes down to this. A record number of Emmy nominations this year went to shows appearing on cable channels. The protected broadcast channels in prime time are showing lower risk adapted scripted shows with concepts that are a proven success with audiences in other countries. Or they are giving us low cost "reality" and game shows.

Yes, in the hours around prime time, they are giving us news. But if you have been following related news, they are rapidly reducing local news budgets.

The time has come for Congress to make some bold moves to unprotect broadcast TV stations altogether. It is time for the broadcast networks, ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC, The CW, PBS, and MyNetwork, to offer the satellite and cable companies an East and West feed like HBO, Showtime, etc.

And it is time for the newly quadrupled broadcast TV station industry to find its way into the 21st Century through creative thinking without government help.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

This Summer Season - Sheer Delight

For lovers of scripted television, this summer is a delight because of the "non-premium" cable channels. In fact, it has been better than the last few fall seasons of broadcast TV. Consider this lineup which isn't every show (in alphabetical order by network name):
The Cleaner on A&E
Mad Men on AMC
Not Going Out on BBCA
The Middleman on ABC Family
Secret Life Amer Teen on ABC Family
Rescue Me Minisode on FX
Army Wives on Lifetime
Charlie Jade on SciFi
Dr. Who on SciFi
Eureka on SciFi
Stargate Atlantis on SciFi
The Factory on Spike
Bill Engvall on TBS
My Boys on TBS
The Closer on TNT
Saving Grace on TNT
Law & Order: CI on USA
In Plain Sight on USA
Burn Notice on USA
Monk on USA
Psych on USA
Add to this list HBO's Generation Kill, Sundance's Shameless and Showtime's Weeds, and it is obvious you don't really need the broadcast networks even though CBS has given us Swingtown and Flashpoint with NBC contributing Fear Itself.

Last fall I started this blog with a six part series entitled The Screen Writers Guild strike, technology, and the future of scripted television. In that series my forecast was that the future of scripted TV was not going to be in broadcast network TV for a myriad of reasons, mostly economic. If this summer's cable lineup doesn't make you agree with me, I don't know what would. The list of cable shows represents 18 hours of scripted programming, or three hours a night over six nights. Comedy and drama. Shows for every interest. No reruns. No fear of some idiot canceling a show you like after the third episode.

I find I like the direction TV is taking. Not every show is going to please the critics or win Emmy nominations. But some of these do both. And a few are even getting ratings comparable to successful fall season network shows. No, American Idol class ratings are not going to be posted for this group, but millions of folks are watching these shows.

Two facts stand out about this summer season cable lineup. First, for reasons that escape me there is a crowd on Sunday night and nothing on Wednesday. What? Nobody watches scripted TV on Wednesday? But, the second fact is that many of these shows are repeated so that you can schedule to see most of them even if you only have one TV and no DVR.

However, since you can't watch cable channels without a satellite or cable source, get a DVR with your subscription if you can afford it. Dish Network, my signal source, even has a multiple tuner DVR box that allows you to record two (or three if you can get digital TV off the air) programs in high definition while watching a recording.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Norma Rae Moves to Hollywood: SAG, AFTRA, and the Congloms

It could be a movie called Norma Rae Moves to Hollywood except the star is Alan Rosenberg.

The concepts to be portrayed are complicated. On one side we have the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers (AMPTP). That's the simplest side. They're the bossess, the company. The equivalent of the textile mill in Norma Rae.

Except today the American textile mills are mostly shut down and the AMPTP members are international corporations. These congolmerates are already "outsourcing" creativity by using the formats and plots of shows created in Britain or Latin America, for instance, shows that were successful with audiences there. In some cases, they are using the actual show from Canada or South Africa. And, even with shows that have American creators and writers, for years they have been "shooting" the show in Canada to save on costs. Plus, American shows now have to have "international appeal" as royalties and residuals from Italy and Japan enter into the economics of measuring success.

Further, today AMPTP represents corporate congolmerates that internationally own most of: (a) the movie production companies, (b) the TV networks (both broadcast and cable), (c) the few remaining radio networks, (d) many of the cable TV companies, (e) some of the TV consumer hardware manufacturers, (f) most of the major newspapers and magazines, and (g) many of the movie theater chains.

On the other side we have industrial unions. But they're different from the textile workers in the original Norma Rae. I'm not sure how to portray the difference here, but we have to use the "way back machine" to understand.

Once upon a time there was an organization called the American Federation of Labor (AFL) that was made up of mostly trade unions. These unions are for carpenters or electricians. They had labor halls where workers put their names on the list and employers called to get a worker.

At that time there was the Congress of Industrial Organizations. It was made up of unions that included all the workers in an industry, such as textile workers, regardless of what job they did.

The AFL and the CIO merged in 1955 to form the AFl-CIO.

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (AFTRA) are two unions representing actors. They both have a history comparable to the textile workers in Norma Rae.

Headquartered in Hollywood, SAG was formed in 1933 to combat the exploitation of actors in Hollywood by the large studios that signed actors to multi-year contracts which did not include work hour or rest period provisions generally accepted in all working environments today in America. The contracts automatically renewed at the studios' discretion and allowed the studios to control the private lives of the performers. SAG is associated with the Associated Actors and Artistes of America (AAAA), which is the primary association of performer's unions in the United States. The AAAA is affiliated with the AFL-CIO.

Headquartered in New York City, AFTRA is the result of a merger of the American Federation of Radio Artists (AFRA) founded in 1937 and the Television Authority (TA)created by AAAA in 1950. Historically, AFRA negotiated the first labor contracts on behalf of radio and recording artists while the negotiated the first contracts for television performers. AFTRA is affiliated with the AFL-CIO.

As one might expect, performers started working in all the various media so SAG and AFTRA have a history of tense cooperation at best. Today SAG has about 120,000 members while AFTRA has about 70,000 members. However, about 44,000 performers are members of both organizations.

Let's set the time framework of our script. Its the middle of 2008. Unlike in the mid-1930's through the mid-1950's, the union members have credit cards, car loans, and home loans. Generally, they are up to their eyeballs in debt like the rest of America. Further, unlike in the mid-1930's through the mid-1950's, if they are injured or ill their medical care is dependent upon insurance derived from employment, like the rest of America. (In fact, General Electric which owns the television, movie, radio, etc. behemoth NBC Universal also is heavily involved in the credit industry and the medical industry.)

Like the mid-1930's through the mid-1950's, the entertainment industry is undergoing significant changes. In that early period, entertainment was changing from movies and general radio to broadcast television, music and talk radio, and LP records. Today the change is from television to internet digital video/cable digital video, from local radio to satellite radio, and from CD's (the successor to LP's) to individual tracks available in digital format on the internet.

Now let's add some immediate plot background.

Many in the entertainment industry believe that the labor contracts of the past 30 years did not result in workers such as rank-and-file writers and actors receiving a fair share of the industry's revenues such as cable TV and video tapes. Most recently, many think they were cheated out of a fair share of DVD revenue because the AMPTP at the time the contracts were negotiated claimed that it was too new a revenue source.

Further, one of the actors' sister unions, the Writers Guild of America (WGA), had a contract that expired nine months sooner than the SAG-AFTRA contracts which expired on the same date as the Directors Guild of America (DGA).

Add to that plot, many SAG and WGA members believe that the DGA sold out the last time by setting the miserly terms of DVD revenue sharing.

So, in the fall of 2007 the WGA began negotiating with the AMPTP. But the AMPTP refused to budge on any issue, forcing the WGA to go on strike. The AMPTP shut down all scripted movie and TV production. After a couple of months of production standstill, the DGA decided to begin negotiations six months early. They and the AMPTP quickly find a mutual basis of understanding, sign a contract, then turn to the WGA and say: "See. Any reasonable person can reach an agreement."

Several months of no work have gone by. Already some WGA members were facing home foreclosure and loss of health insurance. The electricians, carpenters and other workers (including agents) who also have had no income were angry. While SAG members have walked the picket lines with the WGA members, solidarity among workers was not strong.

And then there is the DGA. Directors as "union workers" is incongruous with the traditional concept of labor-management. At the core, a director is middle-management. It gets fuzzy when actors and writers also work as directors. But, in fact a production has producers who are clearly management and writers, actors, cinematographers, electricians, etc. who are clearly workers. Directors are middle management, the folks in charge of day-to-day production.

In any other industry, how middle management is compensated is irrelevant to the rank-and-file union worker. In earlier times in other industries the DGA would be suspected of being a "company union."

But in the entertainment industry, negotiations between managers and middle-managers determined the pattern of compensation for labor the last time and, it appears, are setting the pattern of compensation for new media such as the internet. Under pressure, the WGA capitulated, settling for the DGA pattern.

Now, let's describe two key characters to our story.

Alan Rosenberg, SAG's President, is a well-known TV and movie actor. He's been a political militant all is life. During the 'radical' 60s, he was a member of the Black Panthers and was an active protestor of the Vietnam War. He's from a show business family and is married to Marg Helgenberger, also a well-known actor. In September 2005 in a hotly contested election Rosenberg was part of a winning slate of SAG Board candidates called MembershipFirst. Rosenberg beat Morgan Fairchild and Robert Conrad to become the new President of the Screen Actors Guild. The entire contest was an argument over the need to get tough in order to guarantee stronger contracts and higher residuals. A militant union activist, Rosenberg recently stated:

"Fair play doesn't pertain in bargaining. What matters there is leverage. Here (pointing to the crowd) is the leverage. Our leverage is that we're the product. We took a bad deal for cable 25 years ago. We took a horrible deal for VHS 20 years ago. We won't be fooled again."
Roberta Reardon, AFTRA President since 2007, was promoted from National Second Vice President by the AFTRA Board to fill the position vacated by a resignation. She had served two terms as AFTRA New York President from June 2003. Her performing career included daytime TV soap operas, commercials, voiceover work, industrial films, narration, and live theater. She also taught on the faculty of The School for Film and Television. In contrast to Rosenberg, she recently stated:

“AFTRA has a history of managing change. From radio to television, from broadcast to cable, from vinyl to downloads, from kinescope to video tape-and now to iPods, vPods, webisodes, and cell phones. The pace of change in technology is dizzying. AFTRA´s mission is to be responsive to those changes. The key is to ensure that professional performers have a foot in the door in the new modes of production. Our contracts will grow as those businesses grow.”
While SAG and AFTRA negotiated jointly with AMPTP the last time, they split this time. AFTRA negotiators accepted a contract proposal following the pattern established by the DGA the provisions of which many describe as barely a foot in the door. In light of the different characters leading the two organizations, it is not surprising that to date SAG has refused to accept that pattern.

As of yesterday, AFTRA's membership approved the contract by a 62.4% vote of those voting. So far, no information has been released on the actual number of voters. But because it was a hotly contested vote, one could reasonably assume about an 85% turnout meaning about 65,000 votes cast of which about 24,000 were negative votes. Assuming all the "no" votes cast were from members who are also SAG members, it means that only 55% of the SAG members opposed the agreement. To get approval for a strike, Rosenberg needs a vote of 75% of his membership. At this point, its clear he can't get it without inspiring his members.

Can Rosenberg stand on tables to give inspiring speeches that will get his members to walk out? If not, how can he persuade the AMPTP negotiators to give anything more than the AFTRA contract gives performers?

In the meantime, AFTRA and SAG are competing to represent performers in media produced for the internet. AFTRA has a contract, maybe not everything actors would want, but a contract means you can work.

Can Rosenberg star as a winner in Norma Rae Moves to Hollywood? Or will Hollywood workers become the new WalMart workers, like the rest of of the American labor force? The final chapter of this script has not been written. SAG has called for continued talks after receiving AMPTP's "last, best offer." AMPTP is slowly shutting down production, effectively creating a lockout, which will put tremendous economic pressure on the workers.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

AMPTP begins lockout - TV production to end

The media conglomerates began a lockout of all workers as its final offer to SAG hit the table.

The Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers (AMPTP) handed the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) their 42-page "last, best and final offer" yesterday.

"In short, our final offer to SAG represents a final hope for avoiding further work stoppages and getting everyone back to work,' said AMPTP in its news release.

Trying to term an industry-wide lockout as something other than what it is, the statement says: "Our industry is now in a de facto strike, with film production virtually shut down and television production now seriously threatened."

The release continues its spin: "If our industry shuts down because of the unwillingness of SAG’s Hollywood leadership to make a deal, SAG members will lose $2.5 million each and every day in wages. The other guilds and unions would lose $13.5 million each day in wages, and the California economy will be harmed at the rate of $23 million each and every day."

In its release, AMPTP argues that its offer is "a comprehensive proposal worth more than $250 million in additional compensation to SAG members, with significant economic gains and groundbreaking new media rights for all performers. In addition, our offer addresses issues that SAG identified as being of utmost concern to its members, including tailoring our new media framework for SAG in areas such as feature films and significant gains for working actors."

SAG's chief negotiator and national executive director Doug Allen said: "This offer does not appear to address some key issues important to actors. For example, the impact of forgoing residuals for all made-for-new-media productions is incalculable and would mean the beginning of the end of residuals."

But SAG leadership has taken no steps to get the 75% vote of its membership for a strike.

It's curious. Wikipeida notes: "A lockout is a work stoppage in which an employer prevents employees from working. This is different from a strike, in which employees refuse to work."

It's odd that none of the reports of the last and final offer mention a lockout for what it is but quote the AMPTP news release. Oh, that's right, the folks at AMPTP are big media.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Media Infighting Over Your Money

Look out folks. Lack of any organized defender looking out for your interest is providing another opportunity for media conglomerates to pick our pockets. As with all these opportunities, things begin as internecine squabbling.

Big media has discovered "revenue distribution" problems derived from their own unregulated cross-platform ownerships. This is leading to the curious situation where a Viacom decision to make available complete episodes of "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report" on its Comedy Central web site and through Hulu has resulted in ruffled feathers at Time Warner Cable.

But before we explore this potential "dustup" in the biz, let's digress to refresh our memories with some background. The word "media" is the plural of "medium." In considering the singular, Dictionary.com lists 6 definitions giving context before it gets to how we use the plural (emphasis added):

  1. a middle state or condition; mean.
  2. something intermediate in nature or degree.
  3. an intervening substance, as air, through which a force acts or an effect is produced.
  4. the element that is the natural habitat of an organism.
  5. surrounding objects, conditions, or influences; environment.
  6. an intervening agency, means, or instrument by which something is conveyed or accomplished: Words are a medium of expression.
  7. one of the means or channels of general communication, information, or entertainment in society, as newspapers, radio, or television."

For further clarification, the "means" relate to the creative source expression which generally include the written word, audio which includes the spoken word and music, graphics and pictures, and video and movies.

In the past the "channels" (not those numbered things with call letters) included: print media such as books, magazines and newspapers; audio media such as radio, records, and compact discs; and video media such as theaters and television.

To further break it down, the "channels" for television in the past generally have included broadcast TV, cable TV, and satellite TV.

Now we have another "channel" - the internet - you know, those "pipes" that funnel into your home and office the written word, the spoken word and music, graphics and pictures, and video and movies - virtually all forms of media "means".

(It does get even fuzzier, like when your cell phone provider delivers a "wireless" signal through which you can interact with the internet and through which they can send you music and video.)

This brings us back to the Viacom - Time Warner Cable dispute. According to Wikipedia Viacom "is an American media conglomerate with various worldwide interests in cable and satellite television networks (MTV Networks and BET), and movie production and distribution (the Paramount Pictures and DreamWorks movie studios)." Until 2006, Viacom also included CBS (including over-the-air broadcasting), but the two were split.

Time Warner Inc., according to Wikipedia is "the world's second largest media and entertainment conglomerate" which includes "among its subsidiaries are AOL, New Line Cinema, Time Inc., Time Warner Cable, HBO, Turner Broadcasting System, The CW Television Network, UBU Productions, Warner Bros. Entertainment, Cartoon Network, CNN, and DC Comics." But now Time Warner Cable is being spun off which led to some interesting comments from its CEO in the Wall Street Journal about how to gain access to revenue.

What would Viacom and Time Warner Cable have to fight about over the Comedy Central web site? On the face of it, the dispute is simple. Time Warner Cable pays a subscription fee to Viacom in order to provide the Comedy Central channel to its cable TV subscribers who receive Comedy Central. If Viacom provides the most popular content from Comedy Central for free on the web, then Time Warner Cable internet customers get the content without any extra payment to Time Warner. Viacom's Comedy Central can derive ad revenue from The Daily Show web hits.

Oh my! A big potential fight. Yeah, right!

This would make sense in the abstract, but in the context of the real world the only concern here is how to get more money out of you and me.

First of all, we do not get the option of paying or not paying for Comedy Central. Cable TV is not a la carte. When we subscribe to the cable (or satellite) TV package that includes Comedy Central, we are forced to buy a group of channels most of which any one individual won't watch, though collectively we as small groups of viewers do watch. Viacom and Time Warner as cable channel providers insist on this - depending upon your social philosophy - "ripoff approach" or "access assurance approach." It makes them the most money.

Second, Time Warner subsidiaries have web sites that provide streaming content of current and past TV shows. Check out The CW Web Site or the new The WB.com. Are these Time Warner subsidiaries being assaulted in the press by Time Warner Cable executives? Not that I've seen.

So let's back up here a minute. In a Teddy Roosevelt "trust busting" world or a Franklin Roosevelt regulated utility world, we would have a regulated cable company that couldn't be in the media content production business. It would derive it's revenues from providing (a) cable TV signals for monthly subscription fees paid by you and me, (b) access to the internet for monthly service charges paid by you and me, and (c) telephonic communications services for monthly service charges paid by you and me. Their competition would be the regulated land-line phone companies, regulated satellite companies, and regulated "wireless" companies. These would be technology companies not in any way involved in TV channels nor media production.

Because the world isn't like this, Liberty Media Corporation which is in the cable TV business also owns DirecTV which is a satellite TV company and also owns cable TV channels and also is in media production. It's hardly the most obvious conglomerate which is why I used it as an example.

Let's look at a different example. In it's own effort to survive, Comcast which is a cable company previously only in the cable TV, internet service, and phone service businesses, is now delivering content through its own web site Fancast.com through which it delivers content from its partner Hulu (NBC Universal, New Corp. and now Viacom) supported by advertising. But Comcast issued a news release May 19 headed

Fancast.com to Stream Additional Programming from MTV Networks and BET Networks, Including COMEDY CENTRAL's "South Park," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" & "The Colbert Report"

Back to the real world. Time Warner Cable are the nice folks that on June 5 began testing its internet service pay-for-what-you-use system in Beaumont, TX. Subscription tiers are being offered that will range from $29.95 a month for relatively slow service at 768 kilobits per second and a 5-gigabyte monthly cap to $54.90 per month for fast downloads at 15 megabits per second and a 40-gigabyte cap, with overages being charged at $1 per gigabyte. Downloads and uploads will count toward the monthly cap and prices cover the internet portion of bundles that include tv and/or phone service. Remember, until this year it was the cable company of the Time Warner conglomerate. That conglomerate owns AOL which uses its own partnership with Hulu to promote itself. And if Time Warner Cable viewers get hooked on sites like Hulu or its partners, then the cable system capacity starts getting stretched. But with the tier system, it will become very profitable. But if it starts promoting Hulu-like use before it gets the tiered rates up and running nationwide, people might start getting testy about these speed and gigabyte limits.

So here's the big picture right now all you viewers out there. The media biz conglomerates are struggling a bit to be properly organized to get their hands on your money. And there is nothing new about how they are doing it.

The basic source, of course, is advertising (think newspapers and magazines) the cost of which is included in the price you pay for the products advertised. The other source is monthly charges - starting with newspaper and magazine subscriptions plus phone service and now for cable TV and internet service. Even pay-per-view is really a variation on buying one issue of a newspaper or magazine at the news stand.

I guess I have to figure out how to get in on this, or at least how to pay the least for the most.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Your favorite show got canceled. Whose fault is it?

On my favorite satellite TV forum, someone complained about a show being canceled because it obviously had a following. The thought was that the fault lies with the ratings.

I guess we lose sight of why there are Nielsen ratings at all?

Nielsens are used to sell advertising. Remember you, the viewer, don't pay anything to watch OTA networks. So to cover the cost of buying the show, owning and operating a TV broadcast network, and owning and operating a TV station, advertising is sold.

The networks recently went through the "upfronts" for the new season, which means that they sold ads slots upfront. The most "valuable" slots are primetime Sunday through Thursday, other than special events. The problem is the broadcast networks are in trouble. To sell ads, they used to have to convince advertisers that someone watched the show. Now, with the advent of DVR's, the focus is on whether someone watches the ads.

When you hear "Jericho is brought to you by Frisbee" that is literally the truth of the matter. "Frisbee" is paying all the basic costs based upon the premise that someone is watching the ads and will buy a "Frisbee." The only evidence they have that anyone watched is the Nielsens or data from another source.

Consider this. Typically Jericho in its first season had average ratings between 20% to 25% of American Idol. Jericho probably cost double per minute to create. If nearing the end of the first season CBS said to Paramount Network Television we can generate enough revenue to pay you 20% of your production costs, the Paramount folks have to consider: "Will we be able to generate enough revenue through DVD sales and syndication recover our money and make a profit?" As you now know, the answer was "no."

Consider Friends. Any half hour show shot on a set is cheap to produce except for stars salaries which initially weren't out of the ordinary. During the last season, members of the cast were getting 7 figures per episode. How could a network cover those costs with ad sales in a 30-minute show? American viewers of episodes during all seasons were huge: 25 million, plus or minus. Buying a 30-second spot was an expensive buy.

But NBC didn't pay all the costs incurred by Warner Brothers Television for the last season of Friends. Syndication revenues worldwide for the show were huge. Even in America we started seeing episodes from early years in syndication while the last few seasons were being produced. And syndication is still hauling in the dough. DVD's were released to big sales and rereleased for continuing sales and released in box sets.

It's all about the money. Nielsens? Advertisers (you remember, the folks who bring you the show) now want second-by-second info from boxes. They want to know if you watched the ad, not the show. The show is irrelevant. If a show gets 6 million live and a 7-day 40 million DVR viewing, the assumption is likely to be that it had a live equivalent advertising influence of 7 million, maybe. We time shifters are killing OTA TV.

Those of us who prefer scripted TV have to start hoping that the average per-episode production budget for scripted shows get realistic. At the outset they need to be budgeted for cable-level Nielsens on USA, ABCFamily, Fx, or SciFi, assuming some potential for syndication and moderate DVD sales.

Yes, we watched Jericho. We'll never watch it in syndication as we saw all the episodes. We'll never buy the DVD's. And we didn't even buy some peanuts to send to CBS.

If there is a Nielsen household representative of ours, the fact is sometime within the week they appeared we watched Jericho and the shows opposite it. Our representative households skipped the ads on all of them if they did what we did. So if all those shows get canceled it's the fault of we viewers.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Rosenberg's Last Gasp - Soon We Will All Be Worse Off

In attempting to undo what the DGA, the WGA, and AFTRA have done, SAG President Alan Rosenberg has my sympathy. Unfortunately his problems are the result of his own lack of foresight.

Last fall when AMPTP effectively engaged in a lockout of actors, directors, and all others by forcing WGA members into a strike, an effective countermove would have been for SAG members to state they were negotiating their new contract as of November 1, 2007, and walk out in sympathy and solidarity. That's what the labor movement is all about. And then, the two striking unions could have ignored the efforts of the middle management non-union association, the Directors Guild.

Rosenberg is representing the needs of "the rank and file", not the likes of Tom Cruise or even Kyra Sedgwick.

SAG should represent the people struggling to get enough work as the "interviewed gawker on the sidewalk" on the CSI or Law & Order franchises. These are the people whose current income could derive in a small way from DVD revenue perhaps such as Meilinda Soerjoko and Lindsey Ginter who appeared in respectively three and two episodes of Lost. These are the people who need health insurance, for instance. Like the rest of us.

They have joined the WalMart workers of the entertainment industry, which includes all those in crafts and trades except the stars. And they all are going to lose ground. So will we.

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

The AMPTP "Union-Busting" Plan Continues

As I explained in December and 10-days ago, like the Battle of New Orleans, the Screen Actors Guild's (SAG) battle with big media is being fought after the war ended earlier this year when all the film and TV production rank and file workers lost.

Big media (AMPTP) during its talks with the Writers Guild used the lockout effectively to break the Writers Guild and scare middle management, the Directors Guild. (Yes, Virginia, directors are middle management not rank and file.)

Big media corporations now are using the threat of lockout against the actors, thereby threatening all members of all the unions they deal with who already lost at least three months of work in the past six months during the Writers Guild lockout.

At the same time, big media is going to negotiate with AFTRA, the other actor white meat. They know AFTRA's goal is to expand its influence in prime time. So watch AMPTP throw AFTRA a meatless bone to get a settlement. This will leave SAG's militant leaders hanging because its membership like the rest of us can't afford to miss any payments. ("Militant" in this context means trying to avoid "WalMart employee" status for its non-superstar members.)
Even in Hollywood which produced Norma Rae, the union workers don't understand the lockout or threat of a lockout as simply an old, well-worn corporate management "union-busting" tool to counter the threat of a strike.

But a benefit (?) accrues to us viewers. The fall TV season and the internet media expansion will go on as now planned by Disney, NBCUniversal, CBS, Viacom, and News Corp. It's a good time to buy several million dollars of stock in these companies for the long term. Now what did I do with my "$5 Million Rainy Day" savings account passbook...?

Monday, April 28, 2008

And the fools....

...If you don't recognize the forces that play on what people watch and what they don't then you're a fool and you should be in a different business. - Roone Arledge

Take all the fools out of this world and there wouldn't be any...profit. - Josh Billings


As the major players in TV reposition themselves to generate significant new revenue on the web and through premium cable, those who discovered they are out of touch with reality are sad to watch.

Of course, executives at The CW come to mind instantly as they are so the obvious. In a curious, albeit totally foolish, move to shore up its broadcast TV ratings, this struggling network decided to discontinue streaming new episodes of "Gossip Girl" from its web site. Of course, this show's audience is the demographic that's on the web more than they are watching TV live.

Then there are the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) members along with the directors, actors and supporting trade union members. As Disney, NBCU, and News Corp., not to mention Viacom, MGM and WB, realign their positions towards web and premium channel revenue, the labor that goes into the productions has effectively lost its chance for a fair share of the wealth.

The production employees are the new WalMart employees struggling to even just keep their insurance. The writers, the directors and the actors are already members of the new middle management/semi-professional class of employees that pass through the revolving door of constantly reorganizing companies and who will be getting a smaller and smaller piece of the pie.

As a side note, the Association of Motion Picture & Television Producers (AMPTP) members discovered a few years ago that they didn't need expensive stars on TV shows. It's still unclear if the former and would-be TV stars themselves have figured this out.

And the industry has discovered "outsourcing." Canadian, British and Australian shows will appear more frequently on American television either directly or indirectly, the latter being the already proliferating copies of shows created elsewhere. It will not be long before things like CGI and post-production work will be routinely done in Asia.

As I warned in this blog in December (see The Slow "Lockout" of Actors and Directors), the AMPTP members have a plan. All labor unions having contracts with AMPTP members should have walked out with the writers and not come back until the AMPTP members agreed to deals (1) fairly sharing all revenues and (2) producing most American TV content entirely in this country. They didn't act with solidarity and they have lost.

Those "militant" SAG leaders (meaning those few who know labor is losing big time) negotiating with AMPTP now know it's all over but getting whatever bone AMPTP may offer to allow them to save face. It wouldn't surprise me if that bone didn't relate to sharing DVD revenue, that revenue recently having declined substantially.

By the way, you taxpayers out there, state and local governments are now giving potential tax revenue back to the AMPTP members to entice them to come to your town. While that won't affect many communities, some of you will join labor as losers in the TV industry realignment.

On the other hand, those nostalgic for old TV shows are the big winners in the new realignment once they figure out how to watch streaming TV on the web.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Notice to age 18-30 viewers; Luddites resisting your influence

It is ironic that we are seeing headlines in the "media ad press" (here and here) indicating resistance to Nielsen's proposed A2/M2 integrated television and internet measurement. The irony is that reports of these Luddites are appearing on the day that Hulu.com rolls out for the general public. According to one newsletter (notice the use of the word "claims" rather than, say, "explains":

“Television today is no longer a distinct medium, but a form of information and entertainment that connects multiple platforms and reaches audiences at every possible touch point,” the Nielsen website claims. “With our Anytime Anywhere Media Measurement (A2/M2) strategy, we acknowledge again Nielsen’s important responsibility to the television industry. We recognize that a well-measured medium is a more valuable medium. And we understand that our measurements of emerging technologies will help the industry develop new business models.”

Nielsen wants a test this year. They ran into resistance in that few of the 14,000 test households were comfortable having their privacy infringed upon. So this year's test will be 375 households. If the test is successful, Nielson will expand its program in July 2009. Now they have to cope with resistance to the test from their customers - the folks who decide what TV programming wins the ad funding battle.

OK. I agree that the test data this year will be too limited for media buyer general use. But, to mix metaphors don't "stick your head in the sand" by thinking the Nielsen proposal is some dangerous "camels nose in the tent" that should be resisted. The Nielsen folks have it right. In case no one has noticed, total tv viewing is dropping, particularly in that all important 18-to-whatever younger category. (That doesn't include me, of course.) They're the same group that extensively use DVRs and are viewing video on the internet (you know, those "pipes" extending around the world).

Get with the program. As I explained in detail before, in the home entertainment business it's 1948 all over again with today's network broadcast tv being comparable to the old network broadcast radio. In less than ten years from 2008, broadcast tv will radically change from today as much as broadcast radio changed between 1948 and 1958.

Oh yeah, by the way Nielsen folks. By now we ought to be seeing daily the live-plus-7-day ratings, including cable channels. This should be reported in the media press right along with the "fast affiliate ratings". Why is that not happening? I know what we in our home are doing with our DVRs, and it appears from the occasional tidbit of information available that a lot of others are doing the same. The networks are making decisions about canceling shows we don't watch in the live+1 window, but always watch within 7 days. That's their choice. But the Nielsen Company has too much influence to not be transparent enough to allow us TV viewers to compare ratings results with our own viewing habits.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Hulu's General Launch - A VOD Source


As Hulu.com approaches its general audience launch tomorrow, the web industry pundits are offering up considerable criticism.

My suggestion? Let's all keep in mind that this is the TV industry, with emphasis on "industry". While it has been interesting to sit at a computer and watch something on Hulu.com beta, that's missng the point. Hulu is a TV video-on-demand source that can be run on your TV by simply connecting a computer appropriately. And it's a pioneer from that perspective.

The technology needed to consistently deliver quality streaming video is still experimental. Hulu is experimenting with HD. Bandwidth availability nationwide is weak compared to what would be needed for HD streaming. Do you wonder what HD web site might not suffer from bandwidth problems for Comcast ISP customers? Hulu's distribution partnership through Comcast’s Fancast, plus AOL, MSN, Yahoo, and MySpace, as well as its own web site, is clever.

For a TV VOD site, it's a strong beginning to create a "one-stop-shop". Other sites exist for the amateur or budding professional to display their wares. And the TV networks need to continue attracting viewers to their sites to promote new programming.

Let's all avoid the temptation to compare this experiment with YouTube or cable video-on-demand. It will mature in its own way.

In the meantime, take a look at the content on Hulu.com either directly or through its partners. Perhaps an episode of "House"?

Monday, March 10, 2008

Lipstick, Cashmere, and Rust

Last week "Lipstick Jungle" finished third in total viewers against a rerun of "Without a Trace" at #1 and "Eli Stone" at #2; and essentially tied for second in that 18-49 demographic. The last episode of "Cashmere Mafia" also finished third behind a new "Law & Order" and a rerun of "CSI: NY". It appears that generally the viewers are rejecting these shows.

"Big Shots" has already been canceled by ABC and its "Cashmere Mafia" is still in limbo even though the network has picked up a number of shows. Who knows what NBC will do with "Lipstick Jungle"?

I divide TV drama series into two categories - plot driven and character driven. Plot driven shows have a basic plot and attempt to build characters around it - like the L&O and CSI franchises. Character driven shows begin with characters to be developed. This can't be done without effective use of backstory which can't be done in three episodes unless there is only one primary character. Without backstory, you can't use common plot lines like struggling singles, marriage in trouble, mean competitors, etc., because they seem so trite and make the characters seem shallow. "Cashmere Mafia" and "Lipstick Jungle" have fallen into that trap.

In contrast, "October Road" begins using a strong backstory. (But writer Scott Rosenberg's story does have a true backstory (read here).) The show is slowly developing characters with depth. If it lasts more than two years going in the same direction, it would make a DVD box set drama lovers would like to own. Last week it finished a poor third behind a rerun of "CSI: Miami" and a new "Medium". Tonight is the second season finale. I fear it is the last season.

We own all the seasons of "Northern Exposure" on DVD and love watching them a second time around (despite the fact that Universal failed to obtain the DVD use rights to much of the music used in the show). The salient fact about "Northern Exposure" is that it didn't make it into the top 20 prime time shows until season 3. Character driven shows with multiple characters rarely do. Well-crafted ones used to be given a chance by the networks and viewers.

As a side note, plot driven shows don't automatically do as well as "24" and the two crime fighter franchises mentioned above. "Kidnapped" which NBC dropped after 3 episodes was a strong show. It could have gone on for years had it been scheduled and promoted cleverly.

It is disturbing to see the strong cast members of "Cashmere Mafia", "Lipstick Jungle" and "Big Shots" wasted. It's ironic that of the "rich-and/or-power-players" dramas currently showing, while there is no "gold standard" the CW's "Gossip Girl" might make "shiny copper" while the others barely make "rust".

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

The New 40 channel

It appears that The CW is struggling. Let's see - ages 18-34 aren't watching tv as much as they used to. So let's set up a channel for them. Great economic model. Not.

How about an AARP age group broadcast channel named "The New 40"? The national feeds could begin with a simulcast of the CBS evening news and end with a simulcast of David Letterman. And in between, feed shows that appeal to that age group acquired jointly with cable channels. Lower upfront primetime programming costs. Focused advertising.

Example shows to consider as models: Everwood (yes originally a WB show with terrific cross generational interaction), Mad Men (within memory period piece), As Time Goes By (really funny if you are over 40), Six Feet Under (even the old folks had sex before they died), 100 Centre Street (anything with Alan Arkin), Side Order of Life (only keep Joe Regalbuto and Susan Blakely in more episodes), Golden Girls, The Closer, Saving Grace, Monk, Huff, and Dancing with the Stars (if we have to have a reality show) to name a few.

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Terminal City - A place to go for award winning drama

Sundance Channel will premiere "Terminal City," an award-winning Canadian miniseries about a cancer-stricken housewife who becomes a reality TV star, beginning March 6, 2008.

"Terminal City" mixes drama and dark comedy as it tells this story of a family facing not one but two major upheavals: cancer and overnight fame. Maria del Mar stars as Katie Sampson, a loving wife and mother of three with a zest for life, a sardonic sense of humor and a flair for the grand gesture. When a mammogram confirms a lump in her breast, Katie heads to the hospital for a biopsy -- and walks straight into a live broadcast of "Post Op!," a flailing reality TV show.

Katie's star quality is immediately apparent to producer Jane Richards (Jane McLean), and within days, the telegenic housewife is hosting her own daytime program on the Acetylene Network. While Katie conquers the airwaves, her devoted husband Ari (Gil Bellows of Ally McBeal fame) tries to maintain some sense of day-to-day normalcy amongst the family, which includes two bickering teenagers, 16-year-old Sarah (Katie Boland) and 15-year old Nicky (Adam Butcher), as well as precocious 7-year-old Eli (Nico McEown) and Ari's volatile father Saul (Paul Soles). In the weeks and months to come, Katie's celebrity and illness will accelerate in tandem, and the members of the Sampson family find their own ways to cope with a terribly uncertain future.

"Terminal City" premiered on Canadian television in October 2005, receiving critical acclaim and numerous honors during the 2006 Canadian awards season. In an article for Toronto's Globe and Mail, Gayle MacDonald wrote, "Landing in the same groundbreaking genre that includes HBO's 'Six Feet Under' and 'The Sopranos,' 'Terminal City' embraces taboo topics in a respectful, honest manner, and ends up leaving viewers eminently entertained."

Series star Maria del Mar was recently honored as the best actress of 2006 by ACTRA, the Canadian equivalent of SAG. "Terminal City" won eight awards in the Dramatic Series section of British Columbia's Leo Awards, including Best Series, Direction (Rachel Talalay) and Screenwriting (Fraser). Also receiving honors were co-star Paul Soles, who received a Gemini Award for Outstanding Performance by an Actor in a Featured Supporting Role in a Dramatic Series, and director Kari Skogland, who won the Director's Guild of Canada Craft Award for Outstanding Direction of a Television Series.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Bill Maher, Barack Obama, and the 60's

Tom Brokaw was a guest on Bill Maher Friday evening. Brokaw, because of his book Boom!: Voices of the Sixties has become an "expert" on the subject of the 60's. I haven't read the book, but was a bit disappointed with his discussion with Maher about the idealism of the '60's and its ultimate failure to materialize as social change in the ensuing decades.

I was one of those political idealists who knows what happened. "They" killed Jack Kennedy in 1963. "They" killed Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy in 1968, then beat the crap out of those of us who turned out at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. Then "they" finished off any idealistic illusions remaining on Monday, May 4, 1970, by putting armed troops on a college campus - Kent State - and shooting "us."

Yes, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was approved and the Viet Nam War ended in 1975. But neither process included much idealism. Hilary Clinton is correct - without Lyndon Johnson's congressional leadership experience and willingness to roll over the Southern Democrats by getting the support of Republicans, there would have been no Civil Rights Act of 1964. And without Walter Kronkite editorializing about the Vietnam War in 1968, "they" likely would never have pulled out of Vietnam seven years later, because the doubt the Kronkite sowed in the minds of "their" middle American political base would never have existed.

"They" easily recruited the South and the Middle American "America - Love It or Leave It" working class into "their" camp and regained "their" equilibrium by 1980 and elected Ronald Reagan.

By 2000, "they" could have the Supreme Court appoint a President and create a war designed to make "them" rich.

It may seem simplistic to some because the terms "they" and "us" are vague. But it is the gist of what happened to the 1960's idealism.

I certainly hope that none of the things that happened to the 1960's idealists happen to the Obama idealists.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Cult Following TV cable net for Friday Night Lights, Moonlight, and Jericho?

Various news sources indicate that some NBCU folks are trying to save the award winning show Friday Night Lights (FNL) by finding another network to share the cost. The reason someone is trying to save the show is that it is good, very good. Also it has a cult following.

The reason they have to save it is that it hasn't attracted an audience. The average rating is 6.1 million viewers. For comparison, the CBS show Numb3ers which also runs on Friday evenings typically pulls over 10 million viewers. Its struggling and yet to be renewed new series on Friday, Moonlight, and also has a "cult following", gets about 7.5 million viewers. (Fox's award winning House typically has 13 million viewers and it's episode shown after Super Bowl XLII had 29 million viewers. It is also, good, very good.) The strangest fact about FNL is that it also has done poorly in the 18-49 demographic.

While viewers frequently get upset with a network for not standing behind a show, NBC is trying to find a way to afford this show. It typically costs $3 million an episode to get a show like this ready to hand to NBC. Then NBC and its affiliates not only have to figure out how to pay that bill, but recover all their operating costs and make a profit.

So some NBC folks are trying to persuade The CW or TNT to help with the show to recover the $60+ million a normal season would cost (before network and affiliate costs).

One could ask: Why does it cost so much to produce a TV series? But assuming there is no way to save significant sums, maybe the networks ought to jointly create a subscription cable channel called Cult Following TV. People are willing to pay $10 per month for HBO or Showtime. Then NBC could dump off FNL and CBS could dump off Moonlight and Jericho.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Beaten Like a Yellow Dog

Apparently the science fiction writer Harlan Ellison wrote a "blunt" response to the proposed WGA contract. In his response, he begins: "THEY BEAT US LIKE A YELLOW DOG."

"My Guild did what it did in 1988," he continued. "It trembled and sold us out. It gave away the EXACT co-terminus expiration date with SAG for some bullshit short-line substitute; it got us no more control of our words; it sneak-abandoned the animator and reality beanfield hands before anyone even forced it on them; it made nice so no one would think we were meanies; it let the Alliance play us like the village idiot. The WGA folded like a Texaco Road Map from back in the day."

His colorful words, of course, have received mixed reviews. Sadly, though, his words reflect the truth. All the guilds appear to have been beaten by a simple tactic employers traditionally used in a labor dispute - the lockout.

As I warned in December, the AMPTP never had any intention of settling early with the WGA and did not bargain in good faith. They slowly "locked out" SAG and DGA members before their contract was up, in an effort to weaken their resolve before talks start. In the process, they also locked out everyone associated with production.

Lockouts frequently failed in the history of labor disputes. But industrial corporations hadn't yet talked the entire working class into mortgaging their souls for trinkets.

It would be interesting to know how much money workers in the industry, in whatever capacity, knowingly or unknowingly, owe to a subsidiary of GE, which owns NBCU. And even more interesting, how many felt the pressure of their debt owed to arms of the conglomerates?

Union members used to tithe to strike funds in order to help cover what people needed - food, clothing and shelter. It would be impossible to create a fund to cover the debt payments of most workers.

The "need" to own a $4,000 1080p 52" high definition Sony Bravia LCD TV would outweigh the wisdom to strike until one makes enough money to pay for it (because one can get up to 12 months of no interest or payment sthrough a Sony Financial Services credit card). Once one has it and a new BluRay player, DVD's direct from the Sony online store can be enjoyed such as the "Bourne Ultimatum" or the "Exclusive Seinfeld Series DVD Gift Box", a Sony Style exclusive. And tomorrow they can go to work for a Sony Pictures production. Does anyone remember the concept of a "company town." This is the new "company town", except Sony Pictures has no need to own the land under your house.

So the workers now quarrel openly among themselves, in the process making the employer's only real weapon - the lockout - an extremely effective tool in the ongoing process of accumulating riches.

Ellison is right, but is talking to people on their way to work whose new iPhones are blasting conglomerate-owned music too loudly to hear him. The old song hasn't been revised to say "16-frames and what do you get, another day older and deeper in debt." But it should be.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Boston Legal Not Cancelled - Denny Crane

Apparently Denny is not going to succumb to mad cow.

From WilliamShatner.com:

We are not cancelled.
My Best, Bill

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Will Mad Cow Get Denny Crane?


It appears Boston Legal is in limbo, at best, for being picked up for a new season.

The thing about Boston Legal is you have to love the Denny Crane and Alan Shore (William Shatner and James Spader) characters' relationship (strong male bonding or right-wing gay? tension) and enjoy the weirdness of other regular characters, plus not be offended by the strongly liberal political views expressed by the show's storylines. It is really a comedy with each story having a moral (as in the moral of the story), and in that genre very much a successor to M*A*S*H.

You also have to not be undone by all the old people. I mean the regulars William Shatner, Candice Bergen, Rene Auberjonois, and John Larroquette are all over 60 (my age group). And then there are regular disturbing but amusing judges (disturbing because our judiciary is aging and these characters represents the downside) Clark Brown (the 72 year old Henry Gibson) and Robert Sanders (the 82 year old Shelley Berman). Not to mention the storylines around Betty White.

It's not for everyone. Being an old hippie, I truly enjoy the show. But one of my best friends has been in law enforcement for 40 years, has never voted for a Democrat, and would truly despise the show.

It was #2 in total viewers in its timeslot behind a rerun of Law & Order: SVU. It is not surprising that its total viewers number was barely higher than the #3 Jericho season premier, a show with a limited but dedicated following that CBS cancelled last year but brought back because of the rather tenacious campaign by those viewers. The economic problem is that Boston Legal was #3 in that all important "adults 18-49" and likely would have been #4 if Fox and the CW didn't stop their prime times at 10 pm.

And so, Denny Crane may succumb to economics mad cow. Alot of us will mourn.

Monday, February 4, 2008

Canadian Shows Picked Up by US Networks

If you go to the websites of the CBC, CTV, and Global TV, you see that Canadians are watching some Canadian-made programming as well as Prison Break, the CSI's, the Law & Orders, Jericho, Greys Anatomy, etc.

It appears now we Americans may to get to see some of that Canadian creativity. NBC has reportedly picked up The Listener, CBS Flashpoint, and ABCFamily Sophie. Supposedly CBS and ABC are considering taking a run at The Border.

For those of us who occasionally fall for BBCA shows, this might be a breath of new perspective. And while it could perhaps be "blamed" on the writers strike, NBC programming chief Ben Silverman has said previously he was going to look to foreign sources as part of the overhead cost reduction.

In any event, you can take a look at these shows on the web.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Jeff Zucker Reaffirms His Mantra - Change the Business Model

The National Association of Television Program Executives convention is being held this week in Las Vegas. The keynote address speaker was Jeff Zucker, head of NBC-Universal reinterated the mantra that was clear last November - TV must change or become extinct. I won't restate everything I've pointed out repeatedly in this blog. You can read the more traditional reports:
And then there is the more direct: Zucker Tackles the Broadcast Delusion .

What do you need to know about what he said, most of which we have discussed in this blog previously? Consider:
  • Zucker described the Writers Guild of America strike a catalyst for change, likening the work stoppage to a destructive forest fire that precipitates robust growth.
  • "Broadcasters can no longer spend hundreds of millions of dollars every year on pilots that don't see the light of day or on upfront presentations or on deals that don't pay off," Zucker said. "And we can't ignore international opportunities, VOD (video-on-demand) or the Web."
  • Concerning local TV, NBC has made recent moves, with new local digital and out-of-home initiatives, to bulk up its local TV business --so much so that it has eliminated a division with TV in the title. "At NBC Universal, we don't even have an NBC television stations business anymore--even though we own NBC stations. Our group is now called NBC Local Media. Broadcast TV is only a part of what local media is about."
  • Overall, Zucker says the networks collectively spend $500 million on pilots in a given year--sometimes as much as $10 million on each individual pilot. He said there was little evidence these pilots result in a better success rate than by having a show go straight to series.
  • But Zucker said NBC wasn't abandoning scripted shows for reality, since scripted programming is of major value as marketers pay higher CPMs on average.
While generally those comments are a continuation of what has been discussed here, two other subjects were addressed. First federal regulations and the FCC:

Calling for a total revamping of federal rules, Zucker believes the Federal Communications Commission needs to change outdated regulations, especially where cable networks have one set of rules and broadcast networks another. "Something that airs on channel 3 in New York on cable has very different rules than what airs on channel 2 and channel 4. It doesn't make any sense. The rules they chose to enforce because of the political whims of the day seem very outdated."

“Audiences have many sources for news, weather and entertainment, most of which do not require a broadcast license and most of which do not have strong local components,” he said. “If Washington did take on a comprehensive examination of what regulatory policies make sense for today, many of the regulatory initiatives that have been in the spotlight over the last few years would be seen in a new and different light.”

Then, lest we forget where he is coming from, he mentioned the source of the business model NBCU uses:

Zucker also addressed the perennial question about whether General Electric was thinking about selling NBC. "As things have improved with NBC Universal and NBC prime time, those questions have subsided. It's all about performance. If we perform, the question goes away. If we don't perform, they should sell us."

While GE is only one conglomerate involved in deciding the future of tv, it's coming out first and strong for a business model GE embraces. It is already pushing for changes in federal regulation. Keep in mind, you are not hearing a call for deregulation. Rather, it is a call for regulations to support their new business model. Whether that is in the best interest of the American public is a matter of opinion.

What's your favorite presidential candidate's position on this? Bet you don't know any details. But whoever is President from 2009 through 2012 will have a significanat impact on this.

Monday, January 28, 2008

NBCU continues its march into new media - this time for locals

TV Week reported today that the local stations division of NBCU just purchased LX.tv in a deal that calls for the new-media shop to produce original entertainment content for all NBC-owned stations. LX.tv produces two shows for NBC-owned WNBC-TV in New York, “Open House NYC” and “LX.tv 1st Look New York,” which run both online and on-air.

This continues the movement by NBCU to expand it tv media universe into the combination of online and on-air. See previous posts Why Broadcast TV Can’t Use Scripted Programming, NBC Direct still in beta cuts ad deal, and Writers Win-Win as NBC Business Strategy Becomes Clearer.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

It's Only TV....


On a internet board dedicated to satellite TV, someone who was upset with media conglomerate power over federal regulations posted some complaints. Another board member responded: "It's only TV...." That pushed my satellite-tv-user rant button as follows:

In 1878 home entertainment did not include radio, tv, movies, recorded music, or the internet. People had the options of getting together to talk, sing and play musical instruments, play games, quilt, etc. Solitary activities could include some of the aforementioned, plus reading. They got their news from newspapers and magazines. To see performers of any kind, they had to leave their homes, but for most people the renowned performers of the day generally were out of reach without a significant amount of money and time devoted to travel.

Fifty years later, 1928, things had begun to change. Within the home people could hear professional performers on phonograph records and radios. They could get almost instant news on the radio and a much greater percentage could see some renowned performers of the day at a movie theater.

Twenty years later, 1948, home entertainment had shifted. In most homes, records and radio had begun to dominate entertainment activities. The local movie theater had become an important communal center for experiencing professional performances on a shared basis.

By 1958, just ten years later, television had changed all of that. Two year later Jack Kennedy and Richard Nixon solidified the political implications of mass media first used effectively by Roosevelt and Hitler. And George W.'s people used it well, if corruptly, against John McCain in South Carolina in 2000.

It really took 40 years, 1998, for the internet to begin to be an additional home entertainment and mass communication option. It hasn't replaced TV, however, as the significant medium. And two or more Americas exist relative to these home entertainment and mass media delivery systems.

My kids and their kids live in urban areas. They have ready access to all the out-of-home alternatives - concerts, theater, theme parks, etc. They also have access to all the tv options: off-the-air, cable, satellite, and the new phone companies. And they have access to the highest speed internet options.

For many Americans who - by fate or choice - live in rural areas, satellite tv is the only access to the home entertainment choices available to their urban cousins. Yet it is the barely tolerated step-child of the media industry, a concession to both the appearance of fairness in free enterprise and the need to access the rural market. The same discrepancy exists relative to high speed internet. These times are most certainly not like the 1930's when the federal government deliberately facilitated through regulation and funding universal access to electricity and telephone service, as it did for highways in the 1950's.

When I got my first Echostar C-band dish in 1988, I really enjoyed access to regional news feeds from other parts of the country and Canadian television - it opened up new windows on the world. On October 17, 1989, at 5:04 pm PDT, a major earthquake known as the Loma Prieta Earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay Area and the Monterey Bay Area. We were living well north of the impacted area but had three adult children in the San Francisco area and a parent in Monterey County. The SFO stations went off the air and the phone system did its usual crash leaving us with no information. But with my C-band satellite we could scan and get live satellite feeds from nearby Sacramento stations, as well as national networks because they were broadcasting the World Series from Candlestick Park. At the time, I thought: "Wow, this is the way to go. What a public benefit an open satellite system could become in times of crises." Plus the possibility of improving understanding between people from different locations seemed endless though we'd have to pay for it.

Not long after that, access to local feeds begin to disappear off C-band. Canadian tv was blocked by American networks by legal means without any consideration of the moral issue of limiting access to information. I finally switched to the small dish when the C-band box failed. Through that, in the 9-11 situation, I could get at least local takes from NY stations without having the drama queens and kings of network tv filter the news.

But that came to a screeching halt in order to protect the economic interests of "fictitious people" known a corporations that now thought they "owned" the airwaves the government had licensed to them on behalf of me, originally with strict public service requirements which had been eliminated.

Most satellite users now can get the Fishing and Playboy Channels if they want. But most of us have no access to federally licensed local programming in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida. No one seems to care that we are prohibited by federal law from being allowed to see what the locals in these important presidential primary states are seeing on their tv. It isn't that it couldn't be delivered, as local channels from those states are being delivered to satel- lite tv users in those states, it is that I am prohibited from seeing those signals by the government.

Yes, it is only television to some. But not to me. It is my principal home entertainment, with access not only to tv shows but movies and concerts. It is still a principal source of crises news. Not regular news, though. The style of reporting daily news is, with government approval, controlled by the preferences of an Australian whose only real concern is that media make him richer and his opinions more powerful.

So for daily news I have to depend on the internet now. And I'm using it more for entertainment. But the government has already allowed the same conglomerates to gain control of that delivery system. And while they haven't quite yet figured out what to do with it, they are rapidly learning to squeeze it for money and control it for power....

The one and only advantage of those dependant on satellite tv service should be access to distant networks. "They" took it away. Imagine if the Viacoms of the world could triple cable profits and double their related networks advertising profits by offering network programming from all four time zones in all four time zones while not fatally impacting the local stations. We would all be getting "distants" because federal regulations would be changed not on behalf of the public, but on behalf of corporate interests.

Yeah, it's only TV.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Writers Win, Directors and Others Lose in NBC Future


The New York Times reported today that Jeff Zucker, CEO of NBC-Universal, indicated that NBC would not be buying numerous pilots in the future as it traditionally has. Instead they will order a couple each year, but would shift more toward a system of straight-to-series orders buying "first episode" scripts.

At the same time, the network will stick by its current script commitments.

This announcement is a win-win for writers, but for producers, directors, actors, and the technical and support staff, the model change is a disaster. They make millions each year shooting pilots that never become series.

The announcement is also consistent with what is becoming an NBCU future business plan for scripted TV, a plan that includes Hulu.com and NBC Direct.

Zucker noted in November that NBC.com had 50 million video streams in October, 50% higher than the previous record, in May. "It's become a small cable channel in our universe," he said. Of the Hulu venture he said it was a "superstore" while NBC.com was a "specialty shop." He indicated that the digital issue is the biggest nightmare in his job. "Nobody has figured out the economic model yet. And if we don't figure it out soon, those dollars will turn to pennies."

He emphasized: "We don't want to replace the dollars we were making in the analog world with pennies on the digital side."

As this blog described in November, major changes in the method of scripted tv delivery are looming.

NBC Direct still in beta cuts ad deal

It's hard to keep up with the dizzying pace NBC is moving to the web, NBC's beta subscription full episode download delivery service NBC Direct has signed an advertising delivery technical deal with YuMe.

The Major Housecleaning at the Conglomerates

If you haven't been closely following the news related to the writers strike, you probably aren't aware of the networks cleaning house - scrubbing commitments to scripted programming.

Beginning with ABC Studios on January 11, the five major TV studios terminated about 70 deals under the force majeure provisions in its producers' contracts. These cases include "producer" contracts, some of which were opportunistic in that there were already disputes between the producer and the studio. See the Hollywood Reporter's "ABC Studios terminates nearly overall deals" and "Black Monday at TV studios" .

In the past few days, the studios started terminating scripted projects beginning last Friday with CBS releasing 20 projects. Tuesday it was reported that Fox dropped over 20 scripts and the CW about a dozen, with ABC said to be close to making a similar move.

All these announcements come with statements indicating that the strike caused these terminations, except Fox gave what I consider to be a more honest statement: "In the current environment, we've been forced to take a hard look at our needs for the upcoming season, and as a result we're going to target a more focused range of projects."

As I have noted before, in my opinion the AMPTP never had any intention of settling with the writers and was not bargaining in good faith because of the changes in the distribution environment surrounding scripted programming. I expected broadcast tv to degenerate into mostly news, sports, and reality/game show programming, but I frankly didn't expect it to happen so rapidly. It appears the conglomerates were more prepared to adapt to change than I anticipated and they are using the strike as an excuse to rid themselves of commitments inconsistent with the current economic reality.

Instead of the slow, painful transition from radio to TV that occurred between 1948 and 1958, it appears the conglomerates are cutting out the vestigial organs of scripted TV body in a headlong attempt to adapt. If you like scripted programming, you should start preparing to access Hulu.com, the Fox/NBCU joint venture to stream programming on the web.

To repeat what I noted in November in Why Broadcast TV Can’t Use Scripted Programming, Jeff Zucker, CEO of NBC-Universal, said: "We don't want to replace the dollars we were making in the analog world with pennies on the digital side."

Zucker noted that NBC.com had 50 million video streams in October, 50% higher than the previous record, in May. "It's become a small cable channel in our universe," he said. Of the Hulu venture he said it was a "superstore" while NBC.com was a "specialty shop." He indicated that the digital issue is the biggest nightmare in his job. "Nobody has figured out the economic model yet. And if we don't figure it out soon, those dollars will turn to pennies."

Regarding the writers strike he said: "It will be a real watershed event, [and we'll see] whether [viewers will] come back to scripted programming," he said. "An event like this will happen at everyone's peril."

NBC has been mum so far on its plans to weed out its commitments.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Time-Warner is so predictable

Bragging is not good manners. But I'm going to be rude.

Last Thursday in my post Web tv programming - multiple revenue streams for conglomerates I commented on Time-Warner Cable trying out "metered" internet service in Texas and how this would add to the conglomerate revenue stream from web tv produced by the same conglomerate - different divisions.

Now comes the news that HBO, a Time-Warner operation, will be trying out a new service in Wisconsin - the ability to download content from HBO.

We have no indication when both these trials will end, but my guess is that they will roll-out nationwide within a very few months of each other.

Broadcasters Cancel Script Commitments

“…Most completely-scripted programming is likely to become severely devalued to advertisers and the networks under these circumstances.”

That was the one key point from my post “Why Broadcast TV Can’t Use Scripted Programming” written in early November.

Now many, many scripted projects are being cancelled with the Hollywood Reporter announcing this morning the most recent with “In the latest fallout from the writers strike, CBS has trimmed its development slate, letting go of about 20 projects, most of them dramas.”

…CBS said. “This year’s pilot season, at best, will be played out in a very compressed time frame. In this landscape, we are better served creatively, financially and strategically by focusing our development on a more targeted number of projects.”

CBS is only the most recent to announce this. You don’t have to be a genius to figure out that the shows that will do best in the C3 are sports, reality, and game shows. It was inevitable though accelerated by the writers strike.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Web tv programming - multiple revenue streams for conglomerates


As conglomerates prepare new television programming for the web, like Trenches, Broadband Reports.com ran a news story yesterday that indicates just how those conglomerates are going to generate revenue. See Time Warner Cable Eyeing Overage Charges?

The story indicates that Time Warner Cable is going to test the implementation of overage charges for its RoadRunner cable broadband service. Ultimately this could lead to ISP's charging for heavy usage. Of course, to watch web distributed tv programming you will buy a higher usage tier service.

So Time-Warner subsidiaries could actually shift programming to the web, place unskippable ads in it or charge you for viewing or both, and then through their cable subsidiary charge you again for viewing the programming.

Now, if they could just find a way to keep from paying the creators of the content for their creativity....

Friday, January 11, 2008

Internet TV Moves Closer to You at CES2008

In November, I posted the following within my initial series on just how radical the change in home entertainment will be:

    "While the home entertainment industry struggles to cope with changes over he next 5-to-10 years, viewers who want to watch scripted tv will need to adapt."
With CES 2008 comes the announcement that new TV's are going to have plugs to connect to your home network and the internet, that Echostar - the satellite tv folks - have released an off-the-air DVR with both digital and analog tuners and a network plug so you'll be able to "access premium Internet-based TV programming via broadband Internet" as well as record your digital HD off-the-air shows.

One of the most interesting out of CES is xStreamHD, a satellite based 1080p set-top box system. What we have here is:
  • A box with three "Off-Air HD tuners" and recording capability.
  • Plus a service providing extremely rapid downloading of DVD content in HD - possibly including TV show box sets.
In other words, besides movies you could watch all the last season's shows you might be interested in without commercials, plus OTA HD tv. Most everything I watch on cable and OTA channels comes out on DVD within a few months after the season ends. And shows that find an audience whatever the initial medium could be delivered this way.

xStreamHD will have to be well capitalized for the long haul. And they are initially going to have to give away their boxes, dishes, etc. for an 18-month contract. But they and their competitors - Unbox, Vudu, etc. - are pointing away from DVD's and cable or satellite tv as the delivery medium. And TV manufacturers are now joining them.

Ironically, that's what the writer's strike is all about.

Friday, December 28, 2007

UHD for Jericho, Friday Night Lights, Kidnapped, and Touch Evil

Looking for scripted programming to watch? If you have HD television that includes Universal HD (UHD), there's a good chance you could have four TV series to watch which did no do well in viewership the first time around. On Fridays, beginning January 4, Jericho and Friday Night Lights will be aired weekly. On Sundays, beginning January 6, Kidnapped and Touching Evil will be aired weekly.

Jericho and Friday Night Lights are from last season so its not hard to find press and fan sites on the web.

Kidnapped was pulled by NBC after 5 of 13 episodes aired in 2006. Timothy Hutton and Dana Delaney star as a wealthy and powerful New York couple whose teenage son has been kidnapped. With local law enforcement, the FBI, and a private negotiating team all working on the case, one might think the boy would be rescued in no time...but as the series unfolds, it becomes clear that this "perfect" family may be hiding a few dark secrets of their own. Other stars are Jeremy Sisto and Delroy Lindo.

Thirteen episodes of Touching Evil originally appeared on USA in 2004 but was cancelled. Jeffrey Donovan stars as Detective David Creegan, who after surviving a near-fatal gunshot wound to the head, takes a 12-month psychological leave of absence. He returns to work for the FBI's new Organized and Serial Crime Unit, a rapid-response, elite crime squad. His brush with death renders him fearless in his relentless pursuit of justice as he and his partner Vera Farminga specialize in solving shocking, high profile crimes.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Directors Guild statement misrepresented; writers and advertisers meeting directly

Many in the trade media who are management oriented are misrepresenting the Directors Guild statement made yesterday by President Michael Apted and Negotiations Committee Chair Gil Cates leaving out the important comment italicized in the following:

Because we want to give the WGA and the AMPTP more time to return to the negotiating table to conclude an agreement, the DGA will not schedule our negotiations to begin until after the New Year, and then, only if an appropriate basis for negotiations can be established. If that’s the case, then the DGA will commence formal talks in the hope that a fresh perspective and the additional pressure we can bring to bear will help force the AMPTP to settle the issues before us in a fair and reasonable manner.

See the DGA website.

It also appears writers and advertisers are meeting directly. See http://blogs.mediapost.com/tv_board/?p=225

Comedy at Funny or Die web site

Professional (or struggling semi-professional) script writers need a web site to turn to which offers some serious production values. YouTube may have its audience, but most production is amateur and...let's face it...mostly disorganized and boring.

Comedy now has the Funny or Die web site which describes itself as:

Funny Or Die was created by the guys at Gary Sanchez Productions (Will Ferrell, Adam McKay and Chris Henchy) and a bunch of Silicon Valley dudes and ladies who drive Hondas and watch old episodes of Babylon Five. Michael Kvamme, an aspiring young comedian, came up with a concept for a new kind of comedy site and Randy Adams, a Silicon Valley serial entrepreneur, signed on to handle design and implementation. Now, Funny Or Die has offices in Japan, Madagascar and Bahn, nine full time lobbyists in Washington and an elite private security force consisting of four hundred soldiers and six attack helicopters.

This site is a good place to go as the Writers Strike continues and you need a professional comedy fix.

Monday, December 10, 2007

The Slow "Lockout" of Actors and Directors

It's worth noting that many thought a settlement with the Writers was possible. Everyone is ignoring June 2008 but the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTA). What has yet to be considered is the June 2008 expiration of contracts with the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Directors Guild of America (DGA).

In my opinion, the AMPTP never had any intention of settling with the Writers and is not bargaining in good faith. SAG and DGA are expecting to have to strike to get the piece of the action they want.

So, in essence, they are slowly being "locked out" by the AMPTA before their contract is up, in an effort to weaken their resolve before talks start.

Monday, December 3, 2007

BBCA offering second season of Life on Mars beginning December 11

The 2nd season of BBCA's curious scifi-time-shift/crime procedural "Life on Mars" premiers December 11 (2 hours). We like it. Since David Kelly is producing an American version for ABC and some consider it "Journeyman" done right, take a look.

Saturday, December 1, 2007

New scripted programming to air on cable beginning in January - Is it a trend?

Cable channels have scripted programming ready, and its a go:

On SciFi: "Flash Gordon" and "Stargate Atlantis" new seasons begin on Friday January 4.

On USA: "Monk" and "Psych" new seasons begin on Friday, January 11.

On ABCFamily: "Kyle XY" and "Wildfire" new seasons begin on Mondays, January 14 and January 21 respectively.

On AMC: a new series "Breaking Bad" will premier on Sunday, January 20; story line - a terminally ill high school chemistry teacher becomes a meth dealer to provide for his family's future, starring Bryan Cranston (Hal, the dad, in "Malcolm in the Middle") as Walter White.

Friday, November 30, 2007

New Kyle XY Episodes

Season 2-B on "Kyle XY" will premiere on Monday, January 14 on ABC Family, beginning a run of 10 new episodes.

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Scripted Programs to watch as networks start reruns

Scripted programs are starting into reruns. Here's some upcoming new shows to watch:

mini-series Tin Man, a 3 parter beginning 12/02 on Scifi
new episodes of The Closer and Saving Grace on TNT 12/03
new episodes of Monk and Psych on USA 12/07

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Murdoch Indicates DVD Sales Should Be Target for Scripted TV

News media recently have reported network CEO's positioning themselves within context of the writers strike through comments regarding the future of scripted TV. But News Corp's Chairman and 30% owner Rupert Murdoch is not a "hired gun" CEO. His entire life is tied to New Corp.

In News Corp's annual shareholder meeting and a media conference following (yeah, profits look great and the Wall Street Journal is going to become a free web site), Murdoch pointed to the fragmentation of the market for free-to-air TV in the US. With as many as 200 channels in every home through subscription TV, "old free-to-air television is seeing its audience whittled down".

While indicating that the future of television is "going to be, for a long time, on the television set in front of your couch," Murdoch called broadcast television "highly challenged industry in America" and noted that while events as the Super Bowl can still prosper, series that fill prime time are at risk for generating declining interest among audiences and advertisers alike.

Regarding script-based programming, Murdoch suggested his business model: "The essential thing is we make them very, very high quality so that they can be sold around the world and find an audience, and then be brought back to America--or to anywhere in the world, for that matter --and be sold as DVDs."

In other words, the Nielsen C3 rating can't be the only thing considered when selecting and renewing script-based programming. "We're finding that several programs, which you would think (based) on their ratings couldn't be making money ... are in fact very profitable (via DVD sales)," he continued.

News Corp is strategically position to handle the transition in the tv arena. It has a fleet of cable channels, is selling nine local Fox stations, and putting effort into serving mobile devices. Murdoch sees mobile phones as a significant media platform: "I don't see myself ever watching a classic film on my telephone, but I certainly see, you know, catching up with a football game or something while moving around."

Regarding the strike, Murdoch, whose company owns 20th Century Fox, said the screenwriters "don't have much financial pressure to apply."

"I don't think yet we've seen any ratings declines. In three months' time, who knows?" Murdoch said. "Some shows repeat much better than others," he said. "Shows that are serialized repeat badly, comedy repeats very well."

Fox, of course, is considered by many to be the network best position to weather the strike, with January to bring the popular reality show "American Idol" and the first season of "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles" which has been completed. And the baseball season delayed showing current season episodes of many shows.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Follow the Money - Away from Broadcast Television

According to an article in Online Media Daily, Universal McCann Worldwide CEO Nick Brien, whose 20-year career has made him one of the most influential executives in the world of integrated marketing and advertising, noted this week that big name-brand marketers are moving away from traditional media channels and are threatening to shift the lion's share of their budgets online.

Brien was in New York to deliver the opening keynote address at the ad:tech New York Interactive Marketing Conference on November 6th. "If this happens for another year, significant clients will want to walk," Brien said Monday in reference to a general climate of discontent due to increasing viewer fragmentation, disruptive technologies, and the resulting decrease in returns from ad spending.

Brad Brinegar, chairman and CEO of Havas' McKinney, supported Brien's contention predicting that over 50% of McKinney's business will be digital in less than two years.

These statements confirm an August BusinessWeek survey. Surveyed were top marketing executives from Kraft Foods, Home Depot, Yahoo!, and Pepsi, and agency executives from BBDO, Leo Burnett, Ogilvy & Mather, Saatchi & Saatchi, and more. Of the largest advertisers (clients and agency-side executives on accounts larger than $750 million) who took part in the survey, 42.4% said TV spending would take the biggest hit in their budgets this year. Comments indicated that concerns were about commercial-skipping DVRs and new opportunities online.

These reports all are indicative of a major transition facing producers of episodic scripted tv. Supplemental tools will be required such as product placement, 10-second commercials which make that skip button not worth the effort, or entertaining commercials people will want to watch to continue broadcast tv use of scripted tv

More likely over the next five years, more scripted tv will be delivered over the internet with ad support, through premium subscription channels, or through pay-per-view options. Don't minimize the ad supported internet route. Consider the recent comment by Chris DeWolfe, the founder and CEO of MySpace, part of News Corp.: "If you are a drycleaners in Santa Monica, you can spend say $50, create your own banners, and target it to users within 5 miles. The zip code that users put in are 99 percent accurate, from our research."

Monday, November 12, 2007

The Screen Writers Guild strike, technology, and the future of scripted television

Part I - Relevant History

The Television Writers Guild strike is viewed by many as just another labor dispute. It’s not. It is the first nationally significant economic acknowledgment of the transition in home entertainment that has been under way for a decade. For this industry, 2008 is 1948 all over again.

At the beginning of 1948, the primary choices for purchased or broadcast home entertainment were (a) books and magazines, (b) 78 rpm phonograph records, or (c) radio (other than self-generated entertainment such as playing a piano or singing). About 3 million tv sets had been purchased by pioneer viewers who had relatively little to watch. By the end of 1953, that number had grown ten-fold to over 30 million with 50% of Americans having a television set in their home. By the end of 1958, the number of television sets sold had doubled again, to over 60 million, many of course replacing black and white sets with color (80,000 sold by RCA in 1958).

Television programming was just a continuation of the same categories prevalent in radio in 1940. In a manner similar to books and movies, radio and tv offered fiction and non-fiction programming. In addition to fiction and non-fiction, both offered a category comparable to vaudeville, "entertainment consisting of a number of individual performances, acts, or mixed numbers, as by comedians, singers, dancers, acrobats, and magicians." That category could be termed "televaudeville". In the 1950's, the basics of "televaudeville" were established by the likes of Sid Caesar and Ed Sullivan, plus game shows such as "You Bet Your Life" and "Amateur Hour" and the popular daytime reality show "Queen for a Day."

By the mid-1950's, television brought about the transformation of radio, reducing it down to its current formats - recorded music, talk shows, and news. Many executives, writers, and performers failed to make the transition successfully. This history is relevant to the changing economics of television.

We need to understand changing terminology. Much like the music industry continued referring to a newly released cd as an "album", it is now doing so even though the "album" is a group of mp3 file downloads. What was known in 1960 as "tv" is now being viewed on DVD’s and viewed online as MPEG files, either as downloads or video streams. So "tv" has become something of a generic term. And the broadcast television industry is facing a significant transition as "tv" has become generic.

Continue to Part II

The Screen Writers Guild strike, technology, and the future of scripted television

Part II - The Influence of the Digital Video Recorder

In the early 1970's, music industry executives were ruffled by the cassette tape recorder. In the early 1980's, film industry and television executives were ruffled by the video cassette recorder. But as it turned out, both formats produced inferior quality results and really were n0t that easy to use within the typical home. Even home CD and DVD recording systems don’t represent a significant economic problem.

Computer digital files are making a significant impact in the form of digital audio (mp3) "file sharing" and purchase of new releases. But the startling change regarding digital video recording occurred this year in the television industry - the advent of C3.

The commercial success of a book or a movie is easily determined. You just total up the gross receipts paid by the end users - the readers, the audience, folks like you and me. The commercial success of a television show is different because the end user - the viewer - is only one factor among many considered by advertisers and complex media corporations. And that process of consideration has become extremely narrow because of the "digital revolution."

Most viewers are aware of the "Nielsen Ratings" as a vague concept but have no idea of the recent major change. The traditional Nielsen Ratings - how many watch what show - have become worthless to the primary consumer of the ratings - advertisers. The networks and the advertisers have insisted upon C3 ratings. The Nielsen C3 ratings are the average viewership for only the commercial time within the program for live viewing plus three days of recorded viewing.

C3, which became available on May 31, 2007 has been called the "dominant currency" now in the television economic market. Why has this come about? What does it mean for you, me, and the television script writers? Contained within the answer to this question is the reason the Screen Writers Guild is on strike.

C3 is the result of the digital video recorder or DVR. You might know it as TiVo. My household knows it as the Dish Network digital video recorder (DVR). While it is the logical successor to the old VHS video tape recorder, it isn’t. It’s the result of the personal computer revolution. The DVR is much easier to use than a VHS tape player and it can store hundreds of hours of programming on a hard drive because it is a computer. People using a DVR play a show back at their leisure, a viewing habit called "time shifting." And by pressing a "skip forward" button on the DVR remote a couple of times, the viewer can skip commercials.

As of this summer, the Nielsen people say that the DVR is in over 20% of homes. Advertisers are not interested in these time shifters watching their ad next week. Hence the 3-day thing. Advertisers don’t care if the viewers watch the show. They want to know how many watch their commercials. Hence, the need for the C3 to measure viewing of commercials

Continue to Part III

The Screen Writers Guild strike, technology, and the future of scripted television

Part III - Why Broadcast TV Can’t Use Scripted Programming

As we can now see, because of the DVR and the C3 rating system, the only thing economically important about any ad supported TV show is how many viewers watch commercials live or within 3 days after the air date. Any show that does not incline viewers to watch live and/or within 3 days is commercially disadvantaged.

Consider two wildly successful programs - "American Idol" and "Dancing with the Stars." If you have viewed these shows, one fact is obvious - much like a football game, you really need to view these shows live or nearly live. If you watch them recorded more than a day later, you are likely to have heard the results and miss all the "shared excitement, angst, anger, and joy." And even more compelling for millions of viewers, if you watch these two shows live you get to vote! And if you watch them live, advertisers believe you are bound to "view" some of the commercials. Further, these shows require a competition show on one night and a results show on another night, adding to the ad revenue for the networks.

Also consider two of CBS' reasonably successful programs - "Survivor" and "Amazing Race." Again, much like a football game, you really need to view these shows live or nearly live. If you watch them recorded more than a day later, you are likely to have heard the results and miss all the "shared excitement, angst, anger, and joy" around the water cooler.
Scripted dramas and comedy, on the other hand, can be watched when the mood strikes. Sure, you can have an occasional "Who killed JR?" cliffhanger which created some shared angst. Ordinarily though, if you hear around the watercooler that they killed off a character in a show like "Law and Order", you might feel a bit left out, but you'll watch the episode on tape and continue to "time shift" future episodes anyway.

And so, most completely-scripted programming is likely to become severely devalued to advertisers and the networks under these circumstances.

Aware of the changes and aware that not everyone has a DVR, NBC offers full episodes of over 20 programs to be watched live through an internet connection - with ads, of course. Members of our household can watch these episodes on our 42" plasma "TV" which is really just a monitor without a tuner that connects directly to our computer and audio system.

To expand upon this, after trying out a deal with Apple to feed shows to iPods, NBC joined with Fox to create a venture called Hulu.com. Jeff Zucker, CEO of NBC-Universal said regarding the move away from Apple: "We don't want to replace the dollars we were making in the analog world with pennies on the digital side."

The Hulu web site explains what it's all about:

"We hope to provide you with the web's most comprehensive selection of premium programming across all genres and formats - television shows, feature films, clips, and more...."
"Hulu offers current primetime shows like The Office, Prison Break, Bionic Woman, House and Bones, and episodes from TV classics like Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Miami Vice, Arrested Development and more. We've also partnered with premier content owners like E! Entertainment, FUEL TV, SciFi Network and USA Networks to add to our growing collection of premium programming."
"Hulu is designed with a singular focus on providing an exceptional, online video viewing experience....
"Hulu lets you easily share your favorite videos via email or embed them on your own website. You can even choose to share the entire video or just one scene....
"Hulu lets you enjoy your favorite videos at websites where you are already spending your time online...AOL, Comcast, MSN, MySpace and Yahoo...."


Is this going to change television? Zucker recently noted that NBC.com had 50 million video streams in October, 50% higher than the previous record, in May. "It's become a small cable channel in our universe," he said. Of the Hulu venture he said it was a "superstore" while NBC.com was a "specialty shop." He indicated that the digital issue is the biggest nightmare in his job. "Nobody has figured out the economic model yet. And if we don't figure it out soon, those dollars will turn to pennies."

What did Zucker have to say about the writers strike? "It will be a real watershed event, [and we'll see] whether [viewers will] come back to scripted programming," he said. "An event like this will happen at everyone's peril." The issue for the writers is residuals on viewing of programming on the internet or downloaded through the internet.

Continue to Part IV

The Screen Writers Guild strike, technology, and the future of scripted television

Part IV - 1948 All Over Again?

Neither television industry executives, nor the writers, nor any of us viewers know where scripted episodic drama and comedy programming will end up within five years. We need to think in terms of media, source of funding, format or survival.

Consider again the radio-to-tv transition of the 1948-to-1958 period and thereafter. NBC, which was the top national radio network of the 1930's and 40's, survived as a corporation in the entertainment industry. And in the summer of 1987, NBC Radio's network operations were sold to Westwood One, and the NBC-owned stations were sold to various buyers. (The same case occurred with the Mutual Broadcasting System and CBS Radio, which Westwood One acquired and essentially merged with NBC Radio.)

It's easy to understand the Screen Writers Guild strike in the context of the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers refusal to seriously talk about residuals from new media. Consider headlines such as "With writers on strike, networks ready a dose of reality with plenty of games." You may be getting a glimpse of the future of ad-based broadcast tv. As a scripted art form, tv may soon be delivered to your home however and by whomever.

It's 1948 all over again, except broadcast tv is now in the position of radio. Or is it?

Yes, that ad supported NBC channel you watch now may degenerate into only news, sports, and televaudeville. But there is something you need to know about that TV station - it has gone digital. Over-the-airwaves local TV stations are now broadcasting as many as four digital channels. A digital signal can be encrypted, meaning you could be charged for access to the signal.

We could begin to see subscription-based over-the-airwaves TV following the HBO/Showtime model. NBC-Universal may figure this out and may help their affiliate local stations by distributing scripted programming for subscription-based TV, perhaps with shows having a sponsor like the PBS model. And if the NBC/Universal thinks of it, you could start seeing the cable USA and Bravo channels on those sub-signals, attempting to capture that remaining 15% of the TV market not served by cable or satellite. The FCC will allow all this in the name of competition.

So maybe it is 1948 again, and to paraphrase Zucker, everyone in the business of scripted video needs to figure out an economic model that will work, including the Screen Writers Guild and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers. The Screen Actors Guild members should take note - stars receive large sums per episode likely may become a thing of the past because no one's going to find a market for a $5 million episode of a 30 minute comedy. And the Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild both have contracts expiring in June 2008. Everyone needs to start figuring out how to share those residuals.

Continue to Part V

The Screen Writers Guild strike, technology, and the future of scripted television

Part V - Quarterlife: Will Scripted TV Mean Indy TV?

Basically, we seek out fiction books to share, to expand the narrative within our minds, and to enjoy the imagination of the novelist. We seek out fiction in movies to enjoy the vision of the writer's imagination as envisioned by the director, actors, cinematographer, special effects creators, etc. Which brings us to the future of scripted tv.

If you are a talented writer and have a friend that is a talented director, and you both have friends who are talented cinematographers, actors, etc., you have a fledgling tv production company. For a relatively modest investment in hardware and software you could start producing and delivering HD "webisodes" either for a fee or with advertising. In other words, the Indy Film industry could expand into an Indy TV industry that could easily distribute scripted programs to the home. And everyone in the business is watching quarterlife.

quarterlife is the new online series from the creative team behind "My So-Called Life," "thirtysomething," "Legends of the Fall," and "Blood Diamond." It is the first time a professional network-quality series has been produced directly for the Internet. And it's the first time an independent project of this distinction has been owned and controlled by its creators Marshall Herskovitz and Edward Zwick. And you can watch it at www.quarterlife.com in high resolution wide screen. We watch it on our 42" plasma connected to a somewhat older computer which is also connected to our surround sound system. The quality is as good as any standard definition wide-screen programming. If we used an updated computer, it might reach HD quality.

The actors are professionals: Bitsie Tulloch as "Dylan" ("Lonelygirl15," "LOST," "West Wing"), Maite Schwartz as "Lisa" ("Medium," "Dexter," "House of Grimm"), Scott Michael Foster as "Jed" ("Greek," "The Horrible Flowers"), David Walton as "Danny" ("Heist," "Cracking Up"), Michelle Lombardo as "Debra" ("Click," "Entourage," "October Road") Kevin Christy as "Andy" ("Love Don't Cost a Thing") and Barrett Swatek as "Brittany" ("Seventh Heaven," "40-Year-Old Virgin").

The commercial success of the show will be the big question. The intent is to include advertising half way through each 8 minute webisode. The web site, quarterlife.com, has been set up as a ad supported social network for twenty-somethings, particularly the more creative types.

The show debuted on MyspaceTV.com on November 11, 2007, and on quarterlife.com on November 12th. Also, the series will be made available to other partners such as YouTube, Facebook, and Imeem, one week after each episode airs on MySpace. MySpaceTV will air the first 36 webisodes of quarterlife. Each webisode will be about eight minutes long, and two episodes will air every week, on Thursdays and Sundays.

Is the show good enough? The show was originally conceived as an ABC pilot three years ago. ABC/Touchstone gave the material back to the to Herksovitz and Zwick. Now that episodes have been produced and the writers strike is in full-swing, according to a November 9 story in The Hollywood Reporter NBC is in talks with Zwick and Herskovitz to buy acquire the show.

Continue to Part VI

The Screen Writers Guild strike, technology, and the future of scripted television

Part VI - Indy TV or the Corporations, the Economics of Scripted TV Will Change

No doubt exists that the corporate leaders are looking to online revenues for future growth. As discussed, guys like NBC’s Zucker with their Hulu may be smart enough to make money out of the transition from broadcast television and also help those in the Indy TV industry make some real money, with or without ads.

Disney (ABC) CEO Bob Iger was called upon to defend the company's narrow online video distribution at a recent corporate event. After doing a song and dance defense, he described it as an interesting debate, explaining that the original idea of amassing most of the video on ABC.com was to promote the shows, use the site to upsell and "it also became a pretty good platform for advertisers."

He added: "We're going to take a pretty expansive view. .. We're going to be on more places than iTunes, ABC.com and AOL." (He skipped over a mention of the possible effect of Steve Jobs as a Disney board member and shareholder.)

Iger also referred to a desire for a high-quality user interface and an environment "that's right for the product we create" and not lumped in with a massive amount of product that varies greatly in quality.

In the 18 months or so since ABC.com started streaming episodes, users have started around 160 million episodes while buyers have downloaded 33 million shows through iTunes.

While the home entertainment industry struggles to cope with changes over he next 5-to-10 years, viewers who want to watch scripted tv will need to adapt. That’s us, folks. And that’s what this blog about. Oh, and The Guardian reported Sunday that Google is in discussions with Simon Fuller, the British entrepreneur behind American Idol and the Spice Girls, about a joint venture that could change the way TV is watched over the internet.