This Summer Season - Sheer Delight

For lovers of scripted television, this summer is a delight because of the "non-premium" cable channels. In fact, it has been better than the last few fall seasons of broadcast TV. Consider this lineup which isn't every show (in alphabetical order by network name):

The Cleaner on A&E
Mad Men on AMC
Not Going Out on BBCA
The Middleman on ABC Family
Secret Life Amer Teen on ABC Family
Rescue Me Minisode on FX
Army Wives on Lifetime
Charlie Jade on SciFi
Dr. Who on SciFi
Eureka on SciFi
Stargate Atlantis on SciFi
The Factory on Spike
Bill Engvall on TBS
My Boys on TBS
The Closer on TNT
Saving Grace on TNT
Law & Order: CI on USA
In Plain Sight on USA
Burn Notice on USA
Monk on USA
Psych on USA

Add to this list HBO's Generation Kill, Sundance's Shameless and Showtime's Weeds, and it is obvious you don't really need the broadcast networks even though CBS has given us Swingtown and Flashpoint with NBC contributing Fear Itself.

Last fall I started this blog with a six part series entitled The Screen Writers Guild strike, technology, and the future of scripted television. In that series my forecast was that the future of scripted TV was not going to be in broadcast network TV for a myriad of reasons, mostly economic. If this summer's cable lineup doesn't make you agree with me, I don't know what would. The list of cable shows represents 18 hours of scripted programming, or three hours a night over six nights. Comedy and drama. Shows for every interest. No reruns. No fear of some idiot canceling a show you like after the third episode.

I find I like the direction TV is taking. Not every show is going to please the critics or win Emmy nominations. But some of these do both. And a few are even getting ratings comparable to successful fall season network shows. No, American Idol class ratings are not going to be posted for this group, but millions of folks are watching these shows.

Two facts stand out about this summer season cable lineup. First, for reasons that escape me there is a crowd on Sunday night and nothing on Wednesday. What? Nobody watches scripted TV on Wednesday? But, the second fact is that many of these shows are repeated so that you can schedule to see most of them even if you only have one TV and no DVR.

However, since you can't watch cable channels without a satellite or cable source, get a DVR with your subscription if you can afford it. Dish Network, my signal source, even has a multiple tuner DVR box that allows you to record two (or three if you can get digital TV off the air) programs in high definition while watching a recording.

Norma Rae Moves to Hollywood: SAG, AFTRA, and the Congloms

It could be a movie called Norma Rae Moves to Hollywood except the star is Alan Rosenberg.

The concepts to be portrayed are complicated. On one side we have the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers (AMPTP). That's the simplest side. They're the bossess, the company. The equivalent of the textile mill in Norma Rae.

Except today the American textile mills are mostly shut down and the AMPTP members are international corporations. These congolmerates are already "outsourcing" creativity by using the formats and plots of shows created in Britain or Latin America, for instance, shows that were successful with audiences there. In some cases, they are using the actual show from Canada or South Africa. And, even with shows that have American creators and writers, for years they have been "shooting" the show in Canada to save on costs. Plus, American shows now have to have "international appeal" as royalties and residuals from Italy and Japan enter into the economics of measuring success.

Further, today AMPTP represents corporate congolmerates that internationally own most of: (a) the movie production companies, (b) the TV networks (both broadcast and cable), (c) the few remaining radio networks, (d) many of the cable TV companies, (e) some of the TV consumer hardware manufacturers, (f) most of the major newspapers and magazines, and (g) many of the movie theater chains.

On the other side we have industrial unions. But they're different from the textile workers in the original Norma Rae. I'm not sure how to portray the difference here, but we have to use the "way back machine" to understand.

Once upon a time there was an organization called the American Federation of Labor (AFL) that was made up of mostly trade unions. These unions are for carpenters or electricians. They had labor halls where workers put their names on the list and employers called to get a worker.

At that time there was the Congress of Industrial Organizations. It was made up of unions that included all the workers in an industry, such as textile workers, regardless of what job they did.

The AFL and the CIO merged in 1955 to form the AFl-CIO.

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (AFTRA) are two unions representing actors. They both have a history comparable to the textile workers in Norma Rae.

Headquartered in Hollywood, SAG was formed in 1933 to combat the exploitation of actors in Hollywood by the large studios that signed actors to multi-year contracts which did not include work hour or rest period provisions generally accepted in all working environments today in America. The contracts automatically renewed at the studios' discretion and allowed the studios to control the private lives of the performers. SAG is associated with the Associated Actors and Artistes of America (AAAA), which is the primary association of performer's unions in the United States. The AAAA is affiliated with the AFL-CIO.

Headquartered in New York City, AFTRA is the result of a merger of the American Federation of Radio Artists (AFRA) founded in 1937 and the Television Authority (TA)created by AAAA in 1950. Historically, AFRA negotiated the first labor contracts on behalf of radio and recording artists while the negotiated the first contracts for television performers. AFTRA is affiliated with the AFL-CIO.

As one might expect, performers started working in all the various media so SAG and AFTRA have a history of tense cooperation at best. Today SAG has about 120,000 members while AFTRA has about 70,000 members. However, about 44,000 performers are members of both organizations.

Let's set the time framework of our script. Its the middle of 2008. Unlike in the mid-1930's through the mid-1950's, the union members have credit cards, car loans, and home loans. Generally, they are up to their eyeballs in debt like the rest of America. Further, unlike in the mid-1930's through the mid-1950's, if they are injured or ill their medical care is dependent upon insurance derived from employment, like the rest of America. (In fact, General Electric which owns the television, movie, radio, etc. behemoth NBC Universal also is heavily involved in the credit industry and the medical industry.)

Like the mid-1930's through the mid-1950's, the entertainment industry is undergoing significant changes. In that early period, entertainment was changing from movies and general radio to broadcast television, music and talk radio, and LP records. Today the change is from television to internet digital video/cable digital video, from local radio to satellite radio, and from CD's (the successor to LP's) to individual tracks available in digital format on the internet.

Now let's add some immediate plot background.

Many in the entertainment industry believe that the labor contracts of the past 30 years did not result in workers such as rank-and-file writers and actors receiving a fair share of the industry's revenues such as cable TV and video tapes. Most recently, many think they were cheated out of a fair share of DVD revenue because the AMPTP at the time the contracts were negotiated claimed that it was too new a revenue source.

Further, one of the actors' sister unions, the Writers Guild of America (WGA), had a contract that expired nine months sooner than the SAG-AFTRA contracts which expired on the same date as the Directors Guild of America (DGA).

Add to that plot, many SAG and WGA members believe that the DGA sold out the last time by setting the miserly terms of DVD revenue sharing.

So, in the fall of 2007 the WGA began negotiating with the AMPTP. But the AMPTP refused to budge on any issue, forcing the WGA to go on strike. The AMPTP shut down all scripted movie and TV production. After a couple of months of production standstill, the DGA decided to begin negotiations six months early. They and the AMPTP quickly find a mutual basis of understanding, sign a contract, then turn to the WGA and say: "See. Any reasonable person can reach an agreement."

Several months of no work have gone by. Already some WGA members were facing home foreclosure and loss of health insurance. The electricians, carpenters and other workers (including agents) who also have had no income were angry. While SAG members have walked the picket lines with the WGA members, solidarity among workers was not strong.

And then there is the DGA. Directors as "union workers" is incongruous with the traditional concept of labor-management. At the core, a director is middle-management. It gets fuzzy when actors and writers also work as directors. But, in fact a production has producers who are clearly management and writers, actors, cinematographers, electricians, etc. who are clearly workers. Directors are middle management, the folks in charge of day-to-day production.

In any other industry, how middle management is compensated is irrelevant to the rank-and-file union worker. In earlier times in other industries the DGA would be suspected of being a "company union."

But in the entertainment industry, negotiations between managers and middle-managers determined the pattern of compensation for labor the last time and, it appears, are setting the pattern of compensation for new media such as the internet. Under pressure, the WGA capitulated, settling for the DGA pattern.

Now, let's describe two key characters to our story.

Alan Rosenberg, SAG's President, is a well-known TV and movie actor. He's been a political militant all is life. During the 'radical' 60s, he was a member of the Black Panthers and was an active protestor of the Vietnam War. He's from a show business family and is married to Marg Helgenberger, also a well-known actor. In September 2005 in a hotly contested election Rosenberg was part of a winning slate of SAG Board candidates called MembershipFirst. Rosenberg beat Morgan Fairchild and Robert Conrad to become the new President of the Screen Actors Guild. The entire contest was an argument over the need to get tough in order to guarantee stronger contracts and higher residuals. A militant union activist, Rosenberg recently stated:

"Fair play doesn't pertain in bargaining. What matters there is leverage. Here (pointing to the crowd) is the leverage. Our leverage is that we're the product. We took a bad deal for cable 25 years ago. We took a horrible deal for VHS 20 years ago. We won't be fooled again."

Roberta Reardon, AFTRA President since 2007, was promoted from National Second Vice President by the AFTRA Board to fill the position vacated by a resignation. She had served two terms as AFTRA New York President from June 2003. Her performing career included daytime TV soap operas, commercials, voiceover work, industrial films, narration, and live theater. She also taught on the faculty of The School for Film and Television. In contrast to Rosenberg, she recently stated:

“AFTRA has a history of managing change. From radio to television, from broadcast to cable, from vinyl to downloads, from kinescope to video tape-and now to iPods, vPods, webisodes, and cell phones. The pace of change in technology is dizzying. AFTRA´s mission is to be responsive to those changes. The key is to ensure that professional performers have a foot in the door in the new modes of production. Our contracts will grow as those businesses grow.”

While SAG and AFTRA negotiated jointly with AMPTP the last time, they split this time. AFTRA negotiators accepted a contract proposal following the pattern established by the DGA the provisions of which many describe as barely a foot in the door. In light of the different characters leading the two organizations, it is not surprising that to date SAG has refused to accept that pattern.

As of yesterday, AFTRA's membership approved the contract by a 62.4% vote of those voting. So far, no information has been released on the actual number of voters. But because it was a hotly contested vote, one could reasonably assume about an 85% turnout meaning about 65,000 votes cast of which about 24,000 were negative votes. Assuming all the "no" votes cast were from members who are also SAG members, it means that only 55% of the SAG members opposed the agreement. To get approval for a strike, Rosenberg needs a vote of 75% of his membership. At this point, its clear he can't get it without inspiring his members.

Can Rosenberg stand on tables to give inspiring speeches that will get his members to walk out? If not, how can he persuade the AMPTP negotiators to give anything more than the AFTRA contract gives performers?

In the meantime, AFTRA and SAG are competing to represent performers in media produced for the internet. AFTRA has a contract, maybe not everything actors would want, but a contract means you can work.

Can Rosenberg star as a winner in Norma Rae Moves to Hollywood? Or will Hollywood workers become the new WalMart workers, like the rest of of the American labor force? The final chapter of this script has not been written. SAG has called for continued talks after receiving AMPTP's "last, best offer." AMPTP is slowly shutting down production, effectively creating a lockout, which will put tremendous economic pressure on the workers.

AMPTP begins lockout - TV production to end

The media conglomerates began a lockout of all workers as its final offer to SAG hit the table.

The Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers (AMPTP) handed the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) their 42-page "last, best and final offer" yesterday.

"In short, our final offer to SAG represents a final hope for avoiding further work stoppages and getting everyone back to work,' said AMPTP in its news release.

Trying to term an industry-wide lockout as something other than what it is, the statement says: "Our industry is now in a de facto strike, with film production virtually shut down and television production now seriously threatened."

The release continues its spin: "If our industry shuts down because of the unwillingness of SAG’s Hollywood leadership to make a deal, SAG members will lose $2.5 million each and every day in wages. The other guilds and unions would lose $13.5 million each day in wages, and the California economy will be harmed at the rate of $23 million each and every day."

In its release, AMPTP argues that its offer is "a comprehensive proposal worth more than $250 million in additional compensation to SAG members, with significant economic gains and groundbreaking new media rights for all performers. In addition, our offer addresses issues that SAG identified as being of utmost concern to its members, including tailoring our new media framework for SAG in areas such as feature films and significant gains for working actors."

SAG's chief negotiator and national executive director Doug Allen said: "This offer does not appear to address some key issues important to actors. For example, the impact of forgoing residuals for all made-for-new-media productions is incalculable and would mean the beginning of the end of residuals."

But SAG leadership has taken no steps to get the 75% vote of its membership for a strike.

It's curious. Wikipeida notes: "A lockout is a work stoppage in which an employer prevents employees from working. This is different from a strike, in which employees refuse to work."

It's odd that none of the reports of the last and final offer mention a lockout for what it is but quote the AMPTP news release. Oh, that's right, the folks at AMPTP are big media.

Media Infighting Over Your Money

Look out folks. Lack of any organized defender looking out for your interest is providing another opportunity for media conglomerates to pick our pockets. As with all these opportunities, things begin as internecine squabbling.

Big media has discovered "revenue distribution" problems derived from their own unregulated cross-platform ownerships. This is leading to the curious situation where a Viacom decision to make available complete episodes of "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report" on its Comedy Central web site and through Hulu has resulted in ruffled feathers at Time Warner Cable.

But before we explore this potential "dustup" in the biz, let's digress to refresh our memories with some background. The word "media" is the plural of "medium." In considering the singular, Dictionary.com lists 6 definitions giving context before it gets to how we use the plural (emphasis added):

1. a middle state or condition; mean.
2. something intermediate in nature or degree.
3. an intervening substance, as air, through which a force acts or an effect is produced.
4. the element that is the natural habitat of an organism.
5. surrounding objects, conditions, or influences; environment.
6. an intervening agency, means, or instrument by which something is conveyed or accomplished: Words are a medium of expression.
7. one of the means or channels of general communication, information, or entertainment in society, as newspapers, radio, or television."

For further clarification, the "means" relate to the creative source expression which generally include the written word, audio which includes the spoken word and music, graphics and pictures, and video and movies.

In the past the "channels" (not those numbered things with call letters) included: print media such as books, magazines and newspapers; audio media such as radio, records, and compact discs; and video media such as theaters and television.

To further break it down, the "channels" for television in the past generally have included broadcast TV, cable TV, and satellite TV.

Now we have another "channel" - the internet - you know, those "pipes" that funnel into your home and office the written word, the spoken word and music, graphics and pictures, and video and movies - virtually all forms of media "means".

(It does get even fuzzier, like when your cell phone provider delivers a "wireless" signal through which you can interact with the internet and through which they can send you music and video.)

This brings us back to the Viacom - Time Warner Cable dispute. According to Wikipedia Viacom "is an American media conglomerate with various worldwide interests in cable and satellite television networks (MTV Networks and BET), and movie production and distribution (the Paramount Pictures and DreamWorks movie studios)." Until 2006, Viacom also included CBS (including over-the-air broadcasting), but the two were split.

Time Warner Inc., according to Wikipedia is "the world's second largest media and entertainment conglomerate" which includes "among its subsidiaries are AOL, New Line Cinema, Time Inc., Time Warner Cable, HBO, Turner Broadcasting System, The CW Television Network, UBU Productions, Warner Bros. Entertainment, Cartoon Network, CNN, and DC Comics." But now Time Warner Cable is being spun off which led to some interesting comments from its CEO in the Wall Street Journal about how to gain access to revenue.

What would Viacom and Time Warner Cable have to fight about over the Comedy Central web site? On the face of it, the dispute is simple. Time Warner Cable pays a subscription fee to Viacom in order to provide the Comedy Central channel to its cable TV subscribers who receive Comedy Central. If Viacom provides the most popular content from Comedy Central for free on the web, then Time Warner Cable internet customers get the content without any extra payment to Time Warner. Viacom's Comedy Central can derive ad revenue from The Daily Show web hits.

Oh my! A big potential fight. Yeah, right!

This would make sense in the abstract, but in the context of the real world the only concern here is how to get more money out of you and me.

First of all, we do not get the option of paying or not paying for Comedy Central. Cable TV is not a la carte. When we subscribe to the cable (or satellite) TV package that includes Comedy Central, we are forced to buy a group of channels most of which any one individual won't watch, though collectively we as small groups of viewers do watch. Viacom and Time Warner as cable channel providers insist on this - depending upon your social philosophy - "ripoff approach" or "access assurance approach." It makes them the most money.

Second, Time Warner subsidiaries have web sites that provide streaming content of current and past TV shows. Check out The CW Web Site or the new The WB.com. Are these Time Warner subsidiaries being assaulted in the press by Time Warner Cable executives? Not that I've seen.

So let's back up here a minute. In a Teddy Roosevelt "trust busting" world or a Franklin Roosevelt regulated utility world, we would have a regulated cable company that couldn't be in the media content production business. It would derive it's revenues from providing (a) cable TV signals for monthly subscription fees paid by you and me, (b) access to the internet for monthly service charges paid by you and me, and (c) telephonic communications services for monthly service charges paid by you and me. Their competition would be the regulated land-line phone companies, regulated satellite companies, and regulated "wireless" companies. These would be technology companies not in any way involved in TV channels nor media production.

Because the world isn't like this, Liberty Media Corporation which is in the cable TV business also owns DirecTV which is a satellite TV company and also owns cable TV channels and also is in media production. It's hardly the most obvious conglomerate which is why I used it as an example.

Let's look at a different example. In it's own effort to survive, Comcast which is a cable company previously only in the cable TV, internet service, and phone service businesses, is now delivering content through its own web site Fancast.com through which it delivers content from its partner Hulu (NBC Universal, New Corp. and now Viacom) supported by advertising. But Comcast issued a news release May 19 headed

Fancast.com to Stream Additional Programming from MTV Networks and BET Networks, Including COMEDY CENTRAL's "South Park," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" & "The Colbert Report"

Back to the real world. Time Warner Cable are the nice folks that on June 5 began testing its internet service pay-for-what-you-use system in Beaumont, TX. Subscription tiers are being offered that will range from $29.95 a month for relatively slow service at 768 kilobits per second and a 5-gigabyte monthly cap to $54.90 per month for fast downloads at 15 megabits per second and a 40-gigabyte cap, with overages being charged at $1 per gigabyte. Downloads and uploads will count toward the monthly cap and prices cover the internet portion of bundles that include tv and/or phone service. Remember, until this year it was the cable company of the Time Warner conglomerate. That conglomerate owns AOL which uses its own partnership with Hulu to promote itself. And if Time Warner Cable viewers get hooked on sites like Hulu or its partners, then the cable system capacity starts getting stretched. But with the tier system, it will become very profitable. But if it starts promoting Hulu-like use before it gets the tiered rates up and running nationwide, people might start getting testy about these speed and gigabyte limits.

So here's the big picture right now all you viewers out there. The media biz conglomerates are struggling a bit to be properly organized to get their hands on your money. And there is nothing new about how they are doing it.

The basic source, of course, is advertising (think newspapers and magazines) the cost of which is included in the price you pay for the products advertised. The other source is monthly charges - starting with newspaper and magazine subscriptions plus phone service and now for cable TV and internet service. Even pay-per-view is really a variation on buying one issue of a newspaper or magazine at the news stand.

I guess I have to figure out how to get in on this, or at least how to pay the least for the most.

Your favorite show got canceled. Whose fault is it?

On my favorite satellite TV forum, someone complained about a show being canceled because it obviously had a following. The thought was that the fault lies with the ratings.

I guess we lose sight of why there are Nielsen ratings at all?

Nielsens are used to sell advertising. Remember you, the viewer, don't pay anything to watch OTA networks. So to cover the cost of buying the show, owning and operating a TV broadcast network, and owning and operating a TV station, advertising is sold.

The networks recently went through the "upfronts" for the new season, which means that they sold ads slots upfront. The most "valuable" slots are primetime Sunday through Thursday, other than special events. The problem is the broadcast networks are in trouble. To sell ads, they used to have to convince advertisers that someone watched the show. Now, with the advent of DVR's, the focus is on whether someone watches the ads.

When you hear "Jericho is brought to you by Frisbee" that is literally the truth of the matter. "Frisbee" is paying all the basic costs based upon the premise that someone is watching the ads and will buy a "Frisbee." The only evidence they have that anyone watched is the Nielsens or data from another source.

Consider this. Typically Jericho in its first season had average ratings between 20% to 25% of American Idol. Jericho probably cost double per minute to create. If nearing the end of the first season CBS said to Paramount Network Television we can generate enough revenue to pay you 20% of your production costs, the Paramount folks have to consider: "Will we be able to generate enough revenue through DVD sales and syndication recover our money and make a profit?" As you now know, the answer was "no."

Consider Friends. Any half hour show shot on a set is cheap to produce except for stars salaries which initially weren't out of the ordinary. During the last season, members of the cast were getting 7 figures per episode. How could a network cover those costs with ad sales in a 30-minute show? American viewers of episodes during all seasons were huge: 25 million, plus or minus. Buying a 30-second spot was an expensive buy.

But NBC didn't pay all the costs incurred by Warner Brothers Television for the last season of Friends. Syndication revenues worldwide for the show were huge. Even in America we started seeing episodes from early years in syndication while the last few seasons were being produced. And syndication is still hauling in the dough. DVD's were released to big sales and rereleased for continuing sales and released in box sets.

It's all about the money. Nielsens? Advertisers (you remember, the folks who bring you the show) now want second-by-second info from boxes. They want to know if you watched the ad, not the show. The show is irrelevant. If a show gets 6 million live and a 7-day 40 million DVR viewing, the assumption is likely to be that it had a live equivalent advertising influence of 7 million, maybe. We time shifters are killing OTA TV.

Those of us who prefer scripted TV have to start hoping that the average per-episode production budget for scripted shows get realistic. At the outset they need to be budgeted for cable-level Nielsens on USA, ABCFamily, Fx, or SciFi, assuming some potential for syndication and moderate DVD sales.

Yes, we watched Jericho. We'll never watch it in syndication as we saw all the episodes. We'll never buy the DVD's. And we didn't even buy some peanuts to send to CBS.

If there is a Nielsen household representative of ours, the fact is sometime within the week they appeared we watched Jericho and the shows opposite it. Our representative households skipped the ads on all of them if they did what we did. So if all those shows get canceled it's the fault of we viewers.

Rosenberg's Last Gasp - Soon We Will All Be Worse Off

In attempting to undo what the DGA, the WGA, and AFTRA have done, SAG President Alan Rosenberg has my sympathy. Unfortunately his problems are the result of his own lack of foresight.

Last fall when AMPTP effectively engaged in a lockout of actors, directors, and all others by forcing WGA members into a strike, an effective countermove would have been for SAG members to state they were negotiating their new contract as of November 1, 2007, and walk out in sympathy and solidarity. That's what the labor movement is all about. And then, the two striking unions could have ignored the efforts of the middle management non-union association, the Directors Guild.

Rosenberg is representing the needs of "the rank and file", not the likes of Tom Cruise or even Kyra Sedgwick.

SAG should represent the people struggling to get enough work as the "interviewed gawker on the sidewalk" on the CSI or Law & Order franchises. These are the people whose current income could derive in a small way from DVD revenue perhaps such as Meilinda Soerjoko and Lindsey Ginter who appeared in respectively three and two episodes of Lost. These are the people who need health insurance, for instance. Like the rest of us.

They have joined the WalMart workers of the entertainment industry, which includes all those in crafts and trades except the stars. And they all are going to lose ground. So will we.

The AMPTP "Union-Busting" Plan Continues

As I explained in December and 10-days ago, like the Battle of New Orleans, the Screen Actors Guild's (SAG) battle with big media is being fought after the war ended earlier this year when all the film and TV production rank and file workers lost.

Big media (AMPTP) during its talks with the Writers Guild used the lockout effectively to break the Writers Guild and scare middle management, the Directors Guild. (Yes, Virginia, directors are middle management not rank and file.)

Big media corporations now are using the threat of lockout against the actors, thereby threatening all members of all the unions they deal with who already lost at least three months of work in the past six months during the Writers Guild lockout.

At the same time, big media is going to negotiate with AFTRA, the other actor white meat. They know AFTRA's goal is to expand its influence in prime time. So watch AMPTP throw AFTRA a meatless bone to get a settlement. This will leave SAG's militant leaders hanging because its membership like the rest of us can't afford to miss any payments. ("Militant" in this context means trying to avoid "WalMart employee" status for its non-superstar members.)
Even in Hollywood which produced Norma Rae, the union workers don't understand the lockout or threat of a lockout as simply an old, well-worn corporate management "union-busting" tool to counter the threat of a strike.

But a benefit (?) accrues to us viewers. The fall TV season and the internet media expansion will go on as now planned by Disney, NBCUniversal, CBS, Viacom, and News Corp. It's a good time to buy several million dollars of stock in these companies for the long term. Now what did I do with my "$5 Million Rainy Day" savings account passbook...?

And the fools....

...If you don't recognize the forces that play on what people watch and what they don't then you're a fool and you should be in a different business. - Roone Arledge

Take all the fools out of this world and there wouldn't be any...profit. - Josh Billings


As the major players in TV reposition themselves to generate significant new revenue on the web and through premium cable, those who discovered they are out of touch with reality are sad to watch.

Of course, executives at The CW come to mind instantly as they are so the obvious. In a curious, albeit totally foolish, move to shore up its broadcast TV ratings, this struggling network decided to discontinue streaming new episodes of "Gossip Girl" from its web site. Of course, this show's audience is the demographic that's on the web more than they are watching TV live.

Then there are the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) members along with the directors, actors and supporting trade union members. As Disney, NBCU, and News Corp., not to mention Viacom, MGM and WB, realign their positions towards web and premium channel revenue, the labor that goes into the productions has effectively lost its chance for a fair share of the wealth.

The production employees are the new WalMart employees struggling to even just keep their insurance. The writers, the directors and the actors are already members of the new middle management/semi-professional class of employees that pass through the revolving door of constantly reorganizing companies and who will be getting a smaller and smaller piece of the pie.

As a side note, the Association of Motion Picture & Television Producers (AMPTP) members discovered a few years ago that they didn't need expensive stars on TV shows. It's still unclear if the former and would-be TV stars themselves have figured this out.

And the industry has discovered "outsourcing." Canadian, British and Australian shows will appear more frequently on American television either directly or indirectly, the latter being the already proliferating copies of shows created elsewhere. It will not be long before things like CGI and post-production work will be routinely done in Asia.

As I warned in this blog in December (see The Slow "Lockout" of Actors and Directors), the AMPTP members have a plan. All labor unions having contracts with AMPTP members should have walked out with the writers and not come back until the AMPTP members agreed to deals (1) fairly sharing all revenues and (2) producing most American TV content entirely in this country. They didn't act with solidarity and they have lost.

Those "militant" SAG leaders (meaning those few who know labor is losing big time) negotiating with AMPTP now know it's all over but getting whatever bone AMPTP may offer to allow them to save face. It wouldn't surprise me if that bone didn't relate to sharing DVD revenue, that revenue recently having declined substantially.

By the way, you taxpayers out there, state and local governments are now giving potential tax revenue back to the AMPTP members to entice them to come to your town. While that won't affect many communities, some of you will join labor as losers in the TV industry realignment.

On the other hand, those nostalgic for old TV shows are the big winners in the new realignment once they figure out how to watch streaming TV on the web.

Notice to age 18-30 viewers; Luddites resisting your influence

It is ironic that we are seeing headlines in the "media ad press" (here and here) indicating resistance to Nielsen's proposed A2/M2 integrated television and internet measurement. The irony is that reports of these Luddites are appearing on the day that Hulu.com rolls out for the general public. According to one newsletter (notice the use of the word "claims" rather than, say, "explains":

“Television today is no longer a distinct medium, but a form of information and entertainment that connects multiple platforms and reaches audiences at every possible touch point,” the Nielsen website claims. “With our Anytime Anywhere Media Measurement (A2/M2) strategy, we acknowledge again Nielsen’s important responsibility to the television industry. We recognize that a well-measured medium is a more valuable medium. And we understand that our measurements of emerging technologies will help the industry develop new business models.”

Nielsen wants a test this year. They ran into resistance in that few of the 14,000 test households were comfortable having their privacy infringed upon. So this year's test will be 375 households. If the test is successful, Nielson will expand its program in July 2009. Now they have to cope with resistance to the test from their customers - the folks who decide what TV programming wins the ad funding battle.

OK. I agree that the test data this year will be too limited for media buyer general use. But, to mix metaphors don't "stick your head in the sand" by thinking the Nielsen proposal is some dangerous "camels nose in the tent" that should be resisted. The Nielsen folks have it right. In case no one has noticed, total tv viewing is dropping, particularly in that all important 18-to-whatever younger category. (That doesn't include me, of course.) They're the same group that extensively use DVRs and are viewing video on the internet (you know, those "pipes" extending around the world).

Get with the program. As I explained in detail before, in the home entertainment business it's 1948 all over again with today's network broadcast tv being comparable to the old network broadcast radio. In less than ten years from 2008, broadcast tv will radically change from today as much as broadcast radio changed between 1948 and 1958.

Oh yeah, by the way Nielsen folks. By now we ought to be seeing daily the live-plus-7-day ratings, including cable channels. This should be reported in the media press right along with the "fast affiliate ratings". Why is that not happening? I know what we in our home are doing with our DVRs, and it appears from the occasional tidbit of information available that a lot of others are doing the same. The networks are making decisions about canceling shows we don't watch in the live+1 window, but always watch within 7 days. That's their choice. But the Nielsen Company has too much influence to not be transparent enough to allow us TV viewers to compare ratings results with our own viewing habits.

Hulu's General Launch - A VOD Source

As Hulu.com approaches its general audience launch tomorrow, the web industry pundits are offering up considerable criticism.

My suggestion? Let's all keep in mind that this is the TV industry, with emphasis on "industry". While it has been interesting to sit at a computer and watch something on Hulu.com beta, that's missng the point. Hulu is a TV video-on-demand source that can be run on your TV by simply connecting a computer appropriately. And it's a pioneer from that perspective.

The technology needed to consistently deliver quality streaming video is still experimental. Hulu is experimenting with HD. Bandwidth availability nationwide is weak compared to what would be needed for HD streaming. Do you wonder what HD web site might not suffer from bandwidth problems for Comcast ISP customers? Hulu's distribution partnership through Comcast’s Fancast, plus AOL, MSN, Yahoo, and MySpace, as well as its own web site, is clever.

For a TV VOD site, it's a strong beginning to create a "one-stop-shop". Other sites exist for the amateur or budding professional to display their wares. And the TV networks need to continue attracting viewers to their sites to promote new programming.

Let's all avoid the temptation to compare this experiment with YouTube or cable video-on-demand. It will mature in its own way.

In the meantime, take a look at the content on Hulu.com either directly or through its partners. Perhaps an episode of "House"?

Lipstick, Cashmere, and Rust

Last week "Lipstick Jungle" finished third in total viewers against a rerun of "Without a Trace" at #1 and "Eli Stone" at #2; and essentially tied for second in that 18-49 demographic. The last episode of "Cashmere Mafia" also finished third behind a new "Law & Order" and a rerun of "CSI: NY". It appears that generally the viewers are rejecting these shows.

"Big Shots" has already been canceled by ABC and its "Cashmere Mafia" is still in limbo even though the network has picked up a number of shows. Who knows what NBC will do with "Lipstick Jungle"?

I divide TV drama series into two categories - plot driven and character driven. Plot driven shows have a basic plot and attempt to build characters around it - like the L&O and CSI franchises. Character driven shows begin with characters to be developed. This can't be done without effective use of backstory which can't be done in three episodes unless there is only one primary character. Without backstory, you can't use common plot lines like struggling singles, marriage in trouble, mean competitors, etc., because they seem so trite and make the characters seem shallow. "Cashmere Mafia" and "Lipstick Jungle" have fallen into that trap.

In contrast, "October Road" begins using a strong backstory. (But writer Scott Rosenberg's story does have a true backstory (read here).) The show is slowly developing characters with depth. If it lasts more than two years going in the same direction, it would make a DVD box set drama lovers would like to own. Last week it finished a poor third behind a rerun of "CSI: Miami" and a new "Medium". Tonight is the second season finale. I fear it is the last season.

We own all the seasons of "Northern Exposure" on DVD and love watching them a second time around (despite the fact that Universal failed to obtain the DVD use rights to much of the music used in the show). The salient fact about "Northern Exposure" is that it didn't make it into the top 20 prime time shows until season 3. Character driven shows with multiple characters rarely do. Well-crafted ones used to be given a chance by the networks and viewers.

As a side note, plot driven shows don't automatically do as well as "24" and the two crime fighter franchises mentioned above. "Kidnapped" which NBC dropped after 3 episodes was a strong show. It could have gone on for years had it been scheduled and promoted cleverly.

It is disturbing to see the strong cast members of "Cashmere Mafia", "Lipstick Jungle" and "Big Shots" wasted. It's ironic that of the "rich-and/or-power-players" dramas currently showing, while there is no "gold standard" the CW's "Gossip Girl" might make "shiny copper" while the others barely make "rust".

The New 40 channel

It appears that The CW is struggling. Let's see - ages 18-34 aren't watching tv as much as they used to. So let's set up a channel for them. Great economic model. Not.

How about an AARP age group broadcast channel named "The New 40"? The national feeds could begin with a simulcast of the CBS evening news and end with a simulcast of David Letterman. And in between, feed shows that appeal to that age group acquired jointly with cable channels. Lower upfront primetime programming costs. Focused advertising.

Example shows to consider as models: Everwood (yes originally a WB show with terrific cross generational interaction), Mad Men (within memory period piece), As Time Goes By (really funny if you are over 40), Six Feet Under (even the old folks had sex before they died), 100 Centre Street (anything with Alan Arkin), Side Order of Life (only keep Joe Regalbuto and Susan Blakely in more episodes), Golden Girls, The Closer, Saving Grace, Monk, Huff, and Dancing with the Stars (if we have to have a reality show) to name a few.

Terminal City - A place to go for award winning drama

Sundance Channel will premiere "Terminal City," an award-winning Canadian miniseries about a cancer-stricken housewife who becomes a reality TV star, beginning March 6, 2008.

"Terminal City" mixes drama and dark comedy as it tells this story of a family facing not one but two major upheavals: cancer and overnight fame. Maria del Mar stars as Katie Sampson, a loving wife and mother of three with a zest for life, a sardonic sense of humor and a flair for the grand gesture. When a mammogram confirms a lump in her breast, Katie heads to the hospital for a biopsy -- and walks straight into a live broadcast of "Post Op!," a flailing reality TV show.

Katie's star quality is immediately apparent to producer Jane Richards (Jane McLean), and within days, the telegenic housewife is hosting her own daytime program on the Acetylene Network. While Katie conquers the airwaves, her devoted husband Ari (Gil Bellows of Ally McBeal fame) tries to maintain some sense of day-to-day normalcy amongst the family, which includes two bickering teenagers, 16-year-old Sarah (Katie Boland) and 15-year old Nicky (Adam Butcher), as well as precocious 7-year-old Eli (Nico McEown) and Ari's volatile father Saul (Paul Soles). In the weeks and months to come, Katie's celebrity and illness will accelerate in tandem, and the members of the Sampson family find their own ways to cope with a terribly uncertain future.

"Terminal City" premiered on Canadian television in October 2005, receiving critical acclaim and numerous honors during the 2006 Canadian awards season. In an article for Toronto's Globe and Mail, Gayle MacDonald wrote, "Landing in the same groundbreaking genre that includes HBO's 'Six Feet Under' and 'The Sopranos,' 'Terminal City' embraces taboo topics in a respectful, honest manner, and ends up leaving viewers eminently entertained."

Series star Maria del Mar was recently honored as the best actress of 2006 by ACTRA, the Canadian equivalent of SAG. "Terminal City" won eight awards in the Dramatic Series section of British Columbia's Leo Awards, including Best Series, Direction (Rachel Talalay) and Screenwriting (Fraser). Also receiving honors were co-star Paul Soles, who received a Gemini Award for Outstanding Performance by an Actor in a Featured Supporting Role in a Dramatic Series, and director Kari Skogland, who won the Director's Guild of Canada Craft Award for Outstanding Direction of a Television Series.

Bill Maher, Barack Obama, and the 60's

Tom Brokaw was a guest on Bill Maher Friday evening. Brokaw, because of his book Boom!: Voices of the Sixties has become an "expert" on the subject of the 60's. I haven't read the book, but was a bit disappointed with his discussion with Maher about the idealism of the '60's and its ultimate failure to materialize as social change in the ensuing decades.

I was one of those political idealists who knows what happened. "They" killed Jack Kennedy in 1963. "They" killed Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy in 1968, then beat the crap out of those of us who turned out at the 1968 Democratic National Convention. Then "they" finished off any idealistic illusions remaining on Monday, May 4, 1970, by putting armed troops on a college campus - Kent State - and shooting "us."

Yes, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was approved and the Viet Nam War ended in 1975. But neither process included much idealism. Hilary Clinton is correct - without Lyndon Johnson's congressional leadership experience and willingness to roll over the Southern Democrats by getting the support of Republicans, there would have been no Civil Rights Act of 1964. And without Walter Kronkite editorializing about the Vietnam War in 1968, "they" likely would never have pulled out of Vietnam seven years later, because the doubt the Kronkite sowed in the minds of "their" middle American political base would never have existed.

"They" easily recruited the South and the Middle American "America - Love It or Leave It" working class into "their" camp and regained "their" equilibrium by 1980 and elected Ronald Reagan.

By 2000, "they" could have the Supreme Court appoint a President and create a war designed to make "them" rich.

It may seem simplistic to some because the terms "they" and "us" are vague. But it is the gist of what happened to the 1960's idealism.

I certainly hope that none of the things that happened to the 1960's idealists happen to the Obama idealists.

Cult Following TV cable net for Friday Night Lights, Moonlight, and Jericho?

Various news sources indicate that some NBCU folks are trying to save the award winning show Friday Night Lights (FNL) by finding another network to share the cost. The reason someone is trying to save the show is that it is good, very good. Also it has a cult following.

The reason they have to save it is that it hasn't attracted an audience. The average rating is 6.1 million viewers. For comparison, the CBS show Numb3ers which also runs on Friday evenings typically pulls over 10 million viewers. Its struggling and yet to be renewed new series on Friday, Moonlight, and also has a "cult following", gets about 7.5 million viewers. (Fox's award winning House typically has 13 million viewers and it's episode shown after Super Bowl XLII had 29 million viewers. It is also, good, very good.) The strangest fact about FNL is that it also has done poorly in the 18-49 demographic.

While viewers frequently get upset with a network for not standing behind a show, NBC is trying to find a way to afford this show. It typically costs $3 million an episode to get a show like this ready to hand to NBC. Then NBC and its affiliates not only have to figure out how to pay that bill, but recover all their operating costs and make a profit.

So some NBC folks are trying to persuade The CW or TNT to help with the show to recover the $60+ million a normal season would cost (before network and affiliate costs).

One could ask: Why does it cost so much to produce a TV series? But assuming there is no way to save significant sums, maybe the networks ought to jointly create a subscription cable channel called Cult Following TV. People are willing to pay $10 per month for HBO or Showtime. Then NBC could dump off FNL and CBS could dump off Moonlight and Jericho.

Beaten Like a Yellow Dog

Apparently the science fiction writer Harlan Ellison wrote a "blunt" response to the proposed WGA contract. In his response, he begins: "THEY BEAT US LIKE A YELLOW DOG."

"My Guild did what it did in 1988," he continued. "It trembled and sold us out. It gave away the EXACT co-terminus expiration date with SAG for some bullshit short-line substitute; it got us no more control of our words; it sneak-abandoned the animator and reality beanfield hands before anyone even forced it on them; it made nice so no one would think we were meanies; it let the Alliance play us like the village idiot. The WGA folded like a Texaco Road Map from back in the day."

His colorful words, of course, have received mixed reviews. Sadly, though, his words reflect the truth. All the guilds appear to have been beaten by a simple tactic employers traditionally used in a labor dispute - the lockout.

As I warned in December, the AMPTP never had any intention of settling early with the WGA and did not bargain in good faith. They slowly "locked out" SAG and DGA members before their contract was up, in an effort to weaken their resolve before talks start. In the process, they also locked out everyone associated with production.

Lockouts frequently failed in the history of labor disputes. But industrial corporations hadn't yet talked the entire working class into mortgaging their souls for trinkets.

It would be interesting to know how much money workers in the industry, in whatever capacity, knowingly or unknowingly, owe to a subsidiary of GE, which owns NBCU. And even more interesting, how many felt the pressure of their debt owed to arms of the conglomerates?

Union members used to tithe to strike funds in order to help cover what people needed - food, clothing and shelter. It would be impossible to create a fund to cover the debt payments of most workers.

The "need" to own a $4,000 1080p 52" high definition Sony Bravia LCD TV would outweigh the wisdom to strike until one makes enough money to pay for it (because one can get up to 12 months of no interest or payment sthrough a Sony Financial Services credit card). Once one has it and a new BluRay player, DVD's direct from the Sony online store can be enjoyed such as the "Bourne Ultimatum" or the "Exclusive Seinfeld Series DVD Gift Box", a Sony Style exclusive. And tomorrow they can go to work for a Sony Pictures production. Does anyone remember the concept of a "company town." This is the new "company town", except Sony Pictures has no need to own the land under your house.

So the workers now quarrel openly among themselves, in the process making the employer's only real weapon - the lockout - an extremely effective tool in the ongoing process of accumulating riches.

Ellison is right, but is talking to people on their way to work whose new iPhones are blasting conglomerate-owned music too loudly to hear him. The old song hasn't been revised to say "16-frames and what do you get, another day older and deeper in debt." But it should be.

Boston Legal Not Cancelled - Denny Crane

Apparently Denny is not going to succumb to mad cow.

From WilliamShatner.com:

We are not cancelled.
My Best, Bill

Will Mad Cow Get Denny Crane?

It appears Boston Legal is in limbo, at best, for being picked up for a new season.

The thing about Boston Legal is you have to love the Denny Crane and Alan Shore (William Shatner and James Spader) characters' relationship (strong male bonding or right-wing gay? tension) and enjoy the weirdness of other regular characters, plus not be offended by the strongly liberal political views expressed by the show's storylines. It is really a comedy with each story having a moral (as in the moral of the story), and in that genre very much a successor to M*A*S*H.

You also have to not be undone by all the old people. I mean the regulars William Shatner, Candice Bergen, Rene Auberjonois, and John Larroquette are all over 60 (my age group). And then there are regular disturbing but amusing judges (disturbing because our judiciary is aging and these characters represents the downside) Clark Brown (the 72 year old Henry Gibson) and Robert Sanders (the 82 year old Shelley Berman). Not to mention the storylines around Betty White.

It's not for everyone. Being an old hippie, I truly enjoy the show. But one of my best friends has been in law enforcement for 40 years, has never voted for a Democrat, and would truly despise the show.

It was #2 in total viewers in its timeslot behind a rerun of Law & Order: SVU. It is not surprising that its total viewers number was barely higher than the #3 Jericho season premier, a show with a limited but dedicated following that CBS cancelled last year but brought back because of the rather tenacious campaign by those viewers. The economic problem is that Boston Legal was #3 in that all important "adults 18-49" and likely would have been #4 if Fox and the CW didn't stop their prime times at 10 pm.

And so, Denny Crane may succumb to economics mad cow. Alot of us will mourn.

Canadian Shows Picked Up by US Networks

If you go to the websites of the CBC, CTV, and Global TV, you see that Canadians are watching some Canadian-made programming as well as Prison Break, the CSI's, the Law & Orders, Jericho, Greys Anatomy, etc.

It appears now we Americans may to get to see some of that Canadian creativity. NBC has reportedly picked up The Listener, CBS Flashpoint, and ABCFamily Sophie. Supposedly CBS and ABC are considering taking a run at The Border.

For those of us who occasionally fall for BBCA shows, this might be a breath of new perspective. And while it could perhaps be "blamed" on the writers strike, NBC programming chief Ben Silverman has said previously he was going to look to foreign sources as part of the overhead cost reduction.

In any event, you can take a look at these shows on the web.

Jeff Zucker Reaffirms His Mantra - Change the Business Model

The National Association of Television Program Executives convention is being held this week in Las Vegas. The keynote address speaker was Jeff Zucker, head of NBC-Universal reinterated the mantra that was clear last November - TV must change or become extinct. I won't restate everything I've pointed out repeatedly in this blog. You can read the more traditional reports:

• NBC's Zucker outlines new approach to TV programming
• Zucker: TV Biz Must Change, New Upfront, New Series
• Zucker Calls for Broadcast Changes

And then there is the more direct: Zucker Tackles the Broadcast Delusion .

What do you need to know about what he said, most of which we have discussed in this blog previously? Consider:

• Zucker described the Writers Guild of America strike a catalyst for change, likening the work stoppage to a destructive forest fire that precipitates robust growth.
• "Broadcasters can no longer spend hundreds of millions of dollars every year on pilots that don't see the light of day or on upfront presentations or on deals that don't pay off," Zucker said. "And we can't ignore international opportunities, VOD (video-on-demand) or the Web."
• Concerning local TV, NBC has made recent moves, with new local digital and out-of-home initiatives, to bulk up its local TV business --so much so that it has eliminated a division with TV in the title. "At NBC Universal, we don't even have an NBC television stations business anymore--even though we own NBC stations. Our group is now called NBC Local Media. Broadcast TV is only a part of what local media is about."
• Overall, Zucker says the networks collectively spend $500 million on pilots in a given year--sometimes as much as $10 million on each individual pilot. He said there was little evidence these pilots result in a better success rate than by having a show go straight to series.
• But Zucker said NBC wasn't abandoning scripted shows for reality, since scripted programming is of major value as marketers pay higher CPMs on average.

While generally those comments are a continuation of what has been discussed here, two other subjects were addressed. First federal regulations and the FCC:

Calling for a total revamping of federal rules, Zucker believes the Federal Communications Commission needs to change outdated regulations, especially where cable networks have one set of rules and broadcast networks another. "Something that airs on channel 3 in New York on cable has very different rules than what airs on channel 2 and channel 4. It doesn't make any sense. The rules they chose to enforce because of the political whims of the day seem very outdated."

“Audiences have many sources for news, weather and entertainment, most of which do not require a broadcast license and most of which do not have strong local components,” he said. “If Washington did take on a comprehensive examination of what regulatory policies make sense for today, many of the regulatory initiatives that have been in the spotlight over the last few years would be seen in a new and different light.”

Then, lest we forget where he is coming from, he mentioned the source of the business model NBCU uses:

Zucker also addressed the perennial question about whether General Electric was thinking about selling NBC. "As things have improved with NBC Universal and NBC prime time, those questions have subsided. It's all about performance. If we perform, the question goes away. If we don't perform, they should sell us."

While GE is only one conglomerate involved in deciding the future of tv, it's coming out first and strong for a business model GE embraces. It is already pushing for changes in federal regulation. Keep in mind, you are not hearing a call for deregulation. Rather, it is a call for regulations to support their new business model. Whether that is in the best interest of the American public is a matter of opinion.

What's your favorite presidential candidate's position on this? Bet you don't know any details. But whoever is President from 2009 through 2012 will have a significanat impact on this.